I'm curious if you had the chance to meet the greeter of Laguna when you went and which greeter it was at the time. You still have time to catch something, there's plenty of gentle waves I see older guys in their 70s-80s ride, I hope one day I'll be one of them.
I've seen him and up to this point thought he was just another nut job. Thank you for enlightening me.
Unfortunately no, but if I did, It would not have been Eiler Larsen. I was there in the summer of '87 as I recall with my young wife and friends, I would've just turned 28 . Could the greeter have been "No.1 Unnamed Archer"? I've done a lot in my life, tried a lot of activities. I'm not one to stick too long to a hobby (trading excepted). I'm more of a sampler. Raising kids changes priorities but they're precious. There are many things I'd still like to try and do, and surfing might be one of them, but as the years go by you begin to realize that you can't do it all and have to choose. When you are young and in the moment you think I can come back here and do this again, but often you never do. You realize more and more that time is the most precious commodity and forgiveness the most valuable virtue. .
Got this trade idea off of @T0rm3nted 's journal. Looks like a good setup. It needs a sign of strength which is not glaringly obvious here, but I can't believe with all that time spent in a #1 or #2 Spring (terminal shakeout), with the CM holding his bag wide open, will only result in just another runup to the top of the range. I think we need to watch for the LPS to get printed soon. Friday's move down looks like "effort vs result" action and I may place a buy-stop order just above Thursday's high. If it goes down Monday I may be able to move the buy-stop lower based on evaluation of a shorter time frame...or I'll just be plain wrong. Daily bars:
For the OPTN bulls, although price is having trouble breaking above the range, the supply at the 7.70 area appears to be drying up...there appears to be absorption of sellers by the "quality" buyers. That absorption began with that effort versus result bar (at the first brown arrow on chart below). After that bar, I would have expected follow-thru to the downside, but instead it went up, indicating I think that the buyers during that effort vs result bar were the "quality" buyers. At the last brown arrow, with a low of 7.71, there was zilch supply, no one was willing to sell the 7.70 bid. So I think it's been proven that there is no more supply at that price and will not go under 7.70 again *, but if it does it should find support at 7.15. * It only takes one trader anywhere in the world to screw up a plan. 195-minute (1/2 day) bars:
On QSR, waiting for a successful spring on the short time frame which should then result in a successful spring on the intermediate time frame and thence a completion of the Backup to the Creek (BUC) on the large time frame. That's the bullish scenario anyway. Daily bars:
Still long SPWR from 12.45. It was IBD's stock of the day Friday evening which should bring some attention to it. See clip and link to IBD's report at: https://stockaholics.net/threads/spwr-sunpower-corporation.840/#post-108823 65-minute (~hourly) bars:
I like the way OPTN held up in the carnage of this past week. It fell thru support but with little supply coming into the market. I'll wait and see how it reacts at that 7.06 support.
The silver contract got overbot by about 5.2% and so one could have expected it to get oversold by that amount and it did and more, now showing it is oversold by about 6.6%. The 3-hour chart shows a trading range that printed an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), a sign that the range is in re-distribution by the CM. And that seems reasonable given all the hoopla in dumb-money-PM-bug circles touting gold and silver are once again headed for the moon...maybe, but now the dummies are in for the long pull and the fields were, and likely still are, white for the harvest, the pigs must be slaughtered before the bacon can sizzle. However, given the recent effort versus result bar on the spring, I suspect it will retest the axis line at 17.85. If then it does prove to be redistribution, the downside could go to $13 based on a point & figure count of the trading range shown. Commodities are tricky though.
I still like FIZZ. It's trading above its long-term stride on the vertical chart and on a daily P&F it appears to have met it's downside objective. It also appears to have met it's downside objective on an intraday P&F and it appears supply is drying up on the latest decline. The problem is though that it hasn't shown a sign of strength (SOS), a large up bar on large volume, which it needs to do to prove CM demand. I could front run the SOS but my stop-loss would be under the spring giving about a $7 risk which would limit the number of shares that could be bought and still limit loss on the trade to under 1% or 2% of account value. It'd be nice to see it fade closer to the stop price, or print an SOS, in which case the back-up could be bought with a higher stop price / lower risk. Daily bars:
The weekly bars look bad but I would be surprised not to see strong hands defend $11 where it previously powered its way into phase E. I took a look at 195-minute (1/2 day) bars of SPWR here: https://stockaholics.net/threads/spwr-sunpower-corporation.840/#post-109193 where I came to the same conclusion...it ain't bearish yet. Weekly bars:
Went shopping today. Bot some MMM and this, QSR, the holding company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes. On a weekly time frame it has printed the Back-Up to the Creek (BUC) and on the short and intermediate timeframes it is in the spring position. Also I think it may make a run for October's pivot at 73.35, which hopefully will lead to a bigger rally. 195-minute (1/2 day) bars:
I'm glad I only bought 25 shares of 3M. The industrials got hit this Tuesday, the first trading day of October, on the ISM news I guess. __________________ The ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.8 in September, falling from 49.1 and missing expectations of 50.1. The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell to 46.3 from 47.4. The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index increased to 49.7 from 46.0. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index increased to 47.3 from 47.2. The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.1 in September from 50.3. ___________________ 3M closed down 3.67%. I'm down 3.72%. It was bought as a short-term trade, counter to the longer-term downtrend. It was a dumb impulse buy, a lack of patience, since my long term P&F price target is about $100. It did not fall on Tuesday on heavy volume, but supply doesn't need to prove itself, it can just drift lower. So I may just raise my sell-stop on this one from my planned risk of 6.5%, or pick a spot to sell it since it is slightly oversold on a short-term basis The divvy at Tuesday's close is 3.64%, so theoretically if I held it for 13 1/2 months I'd break about even if the price didn't move lower. But in that time the share price could move down to $100 where I can buy it cheaper, so no, holding doesn't seem like wise use of capital. No matter how you look at it, its hard to justify the buy and hold strategy. (I should confess however that I also own some 3M that was acquired back about 1985 and added to through the company's DRIP). Daily bars:
WW has grabbed my attention for a case study. In the longer term WW has been in markup and has cause for a move to the $45 to $57 area, but was set up for a pause in the $38 area. See post #7 for the long-term point and figure chart on @SensibleInvesting 's journal here: https://stockaholics.net/threads/se...nal-quest-for-consistent-30.8775/#post-109704 Below is a 65-minute (~hourly) chart. In mid-September it built cause for a move to 38.60 which was essentially achieved. Then in the last week of September it built cause for a potential downside target of about $28, fell out of the uptrend channel, failed to get back in while printing an Upthrust-After-Distribution (UTAD), and then fell thru the ice and found support at $32.03. It has now made its way back up to test the ice to catch a breath. It took 13 bars versus 5 on the way down (curiously both Fibonacci numbers: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21,34...). Of course that move up did not have any preparation, it did not build cause for a sustained mark-up. So, I'm modeling 32.03 as the Selling Climax (SC) and the move up as an Automatic Rally (AR) and my assumption is that it will need to retest the SC, a Secondary Test (ST). The risk of holding long here is that there is still downside cause to the $28 area and the upcoming short-term trade appears to be on the short side. However, if I'm wrong and it continues higher and breaks above the $38 area then that move down would be proved to be a really deep terminal shakeout in which case it should continue its longer-term markup to the $45 to $57 area. 65-min bars:
I don't normally buy breakouts but it was recently announced that Scorpio's CEO purchased 1000 Jan2020 $33 calls at a cost of $265,000 and it appears from a point and figure count that STNG has cause for a move to about $65. The news of the CEO's purchase came out on Tuesday (probably after the close) when the price attempted to test lower on lower supply. When I heard about it near the close on Friday, I bot at $33.60, but the ideal buy would have been on Wednesday near $30. Support appears to be at $32.69 and $30.87. Next week's pivot (last week's average of high, low, close) is at $32.16. Daily bars:
And prior to that, Scorpio's President bought 1,500 Jan2020 $28 calls sometime on or before September 26 (according to this Seeking Alpha piece).
I may have to jump on SPWR again, it was up after hours Friday on this news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-yanks-exemption-solar-relying-212607327.html?.tsrc=rss (Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. The Trump administration dealt a fresh blow to renewable energy developers on Friday by stripping away an exemption the industry was counting on to weather the president’s tariffs on imported panels. The U.S. Trade Representative said Friday it was eliminating a loophole granted about four months ago for bifacial solar panels, which generate electricity on both sides. They’ll now be subject to the duties Trump announced on imported equipment in early 2018, currently at 25%. The change takes effect Oct. 28. The exclusion had been a reprieve for the solar industry, which lost thousands of jobs and put projects on ice as a result of the tariffs. Some panel manufacturers had already begun shifting supply chains to produce more bifacial panels. Stripping the exemption represents a setback to developers building big U.S. solar projects. American panel makers First Solar Inc. and SunPower Corp. will meanwhile regain an edge on foreign competitors. “The solar tariffs are back,” Tara Narayanan, an analyst at BloombergNEF, said in an interview Friday. “U.S. solar developers cannot buy products with lower costs and higher output as they briefly thought they could.” First Solar, the largest U.S. solar panel maker, and SunPower both gained in after-markets trading late Friday. A reminder and update of the long-term chart: It appears to have found support for the BUC at $10 settling in to end last week between $10 and $11. P&F indicates cause for a target as high as $53. Weekly bars: Shorter term it appears that a terminal shakeout has completed with very little supply. The monthly pivot (last months average high, low, close) has not been tagged yet at $12.45. 130-minute bars:
