They dusted that guy off to present a bear point of view. Looking at charts is looking backwards see the future. Analysts offer opinions based on collected data, which is also looking backwards. Then all the "pros" spout off because that is how they get paid. Ultimately, there is no way to tell the future. Who would keep throwing money into a company which loses money for a decade? Lots of people. That's why the stock price is trading so high. John DeLorean had a dream too.
Then there's the cheerleader version. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/...iggest-milestones-from-the-past-10-years.html
I bought Albertsons IPO last Friday for about the same price. I wonder if my local Safeway will hit $1000 in 10 years.
Been watching that intently. If it were not for the virus shutdowns it would have been a slam dunk. Now it's on the fence. S&P inclusion would open up a whole new segment of broad market fund buyers of the stock.
This could all be on the up and up. I certainly hope so. However, it's interesting the talk of record deliveries (seems very unlikely to me) and inclusion in the S&P are hitting media outlets hours before the end of a quarter that was impacted by a shutdown for over half of the quarter. I hope this isn't a pump and dump but it would be a text book example of the P&D profile, if it was. I've been long since 2016 and then really bulked up during the media attacks of 2019 so I don't have to care about market manipulation but this stock seems to be a melting pot for predatory activity. Look at the endless lineup of short sellers. Happily, most of them are either stripped of the bulk of their net worth or bankrupt. lol!
I agree @TomB16 My biggest red flag is the long delay in Q2 reporting possibly to battery day and Q3 reporting. Come on Elon, get those numbers out!
Oh, and btw,.. Police are loving Tesla. Suggests they pay for themselves in less than two years. https://electrek.co/2020/06/30/tesla-model-3-police-cars-faster-roi-police-chief/ "Two big things that we were looking at when shopping for cars were obviously cost and performance. Many times when you get a car that is in our cost price range, you sacrifice performance. With Tesla, the performance is better than the cars we are currently driving. It’s amazing, it’s smooth, it’s powerful, it handles great."
Tesla is now the most valuable car company in the world by market cap. And yet to produce 500,000 cars a year or score S&P inclusion. I love the company but I am wayyy short at this price. I don't care what the 5/10 year outlook is, it is much to spendy ATM for my money with such a high P/E.
Here's what I can find on Tesla deliveries. One of the rating companies is talking about Tesla setting a delivery record. That would be over 110,000 deliveries. I don't see how. Shanghai April - 3600 (pre-incentive) Shanghai May - 11000 Meanwhile, at Fremont, they can produce about 40k cars per month (500K cars per year). If we assume Shanghai delivered 11,000 cars (big assumption, they were probably creating inventory in April to have large numbers in May) in June and Fremont was running for 5 weeks following the quarantine, that's about 75,000 deliveries. If Tesla can pull a rabbit out of a hat, they might hit 85K deliveries for Q2. I know they've been working on assembly operations to increase capacity but it's tough to imagine them breaking 100K deliveries, even if Shanghai has another GA line bootstrapped by now.
We shall see...I am optimistic. Maybe not just on deliveries but the income from auto pilot or other sources. Of course, i am just looking at profit vs no profit for the qtr. i just saw this on the news feed.... "Just amazing how well you executed, especially in such difficult times. I am so proud to work with you!" Musk wrote.
Worst case scenario would be questionable accounting, or flat out reporting inaccurate numbers on purpose. We don't want another Luckin. I don't personally believe that Elon Musk would purposely report false information. So maybe they somehow managed to do it. Even with the weeks where the factory was shut down.
They produced 82K vehicles and delivered 90K in Q2. 82K production was within my 75~85 guestimate but I have learned on WeChat that Tesla has two GA lines at Giga Shanghai. It appears Shanghai kept producing cars at best speed during April, while customers waited for the government subsidy to kick in. I'm curious about the 8K cars that floated in from Q1. Tesla has a massive parking lot in Shanghai, near the port. For some reason, nobody seems to discuss it and we don't get a lot of pictures of the lot. It would be helpful to have satellite images to monitor inventory. It appears to me Tesla now has annual production capacity of about 550K units. I think Shanghai was to come online in a big way by the end of this quarter but that has been pushed back by the virus. FSD was also to come online this quarter but it is taking longer than expected. I expect the Q2 earnings call to be late, along with the rest of the corporate world. As well as being late, I expect a lot of talk about things they are doing, rather than things they have done. They appear to be set up to have a pretty massive Q3. I'm expecting a small loss in Q2 and a pretty big earnings number in Q3.
Its funny, just filtering through the headlines this morning under the ol TLSA ticker. One doesn't even have to read the article to tell who is who in terms of the author. using parentheses. Because they aren't direct quotes. Though very close. This is mostly in jest. The bull author says (shares soar 9% premarket on stronger than expected q2 deliveries) the bear says (Tesla deilveries fell second qtr amidst covid shutdown). Artical is about as bearish a spin as anyone could put on the news. the analyst view, taking credit for the pre market bump, due to daniel so and so raising his price target to $1250.....though the move had already happened, before most of the world got his late to the party, upgrade. but these shock headlines are telling in any ticker USA. Or world. Just a funny observation that was glaring in this morning’s news. Happy trading!
True that, B Russ. Let’s work backward from the production and delivery numbers. 19Q4 saw production of 105K units. That was before Shanghai came online with more than just a handful of sample Model 3. Those are the last “normal” numbers. This quarter, they made 82K vehicles. Of those 82K, about 25K were built in Shanghai. That means they made about 57K cars at Fremont in Q2. Fremont was shut down on March 25. The reopening is a bit fuzzy but it looks like they reopened around May 18. That’s 8 weeks of shutdown during a 13 week period. In weekly terms, that’s about 11K cars per week at Fremont which is a bit lower than the Q4 numbers. Add in 3K per week for Shanghai and we have 14K unit per week production capability. If we subtract 6 weeks per year of down time for maintenance and repairs, that comes to 650K vehicles per year of annualized production capability (assuming 6 weeks of downtime). Looking forward, we have the second line at Shanghai that I expect will be ramping shortly. The model Y line at Fremont has room to scale, also. If we add in another 5K units per week, that is over 850K annualized production rate. They should be at this rate by the end of this quarter. Looking further forward, we have the Model Y line at Giga Shanghai coming online in 21Q1. They will be lucky to have Giga Berlin producing anything more than announcements of how they are progressing faster than Giga Shanghai, until the end of 2021. Elon has said they will produce cars next year, so we will see. It has suffered a few setbacks so it will be impressive if they can produce cars next year. Following that will be the wonderfully named, Tera Texas. I expect that will come online sometime in 2022. This year, I expect they will produce 700K cars. So, here are my guestimates... End of 2020 production rate -> 850K units End of 2021 production rate -> 1.2M units End of 2022 production rate -> 1.5M units The wild card here is Giga Nevada. At some point, I expect them to expand GF1 to add production lines but I have no idea when that might happen. It seems like Fremont was capable of building plenty of vehicles to consume all of the battery cells they could get their hands on, so they have not yet spilled over from Fremont. As they ramp their cell supply, that will change. I also wonder if they will build cars at Giga New York, at some point.
One last post and then I'll rest my keyboard for a bit.... Tesla is currently valued at about $220B. That seems insane, on the surface, but it isn't. Last year, when they were valued at $30B, I knew they were vastly under valued. The enterprise value of the charging network hinges on the success of their car line. The car line was being sold as quickly as they could make them with no end in sight. Tesla was burying other manufacturers. Believe me, Toyota, VW, GM, et al., are well aware of Tesla. At the time, there were about 4000 stations and 12,000 charge points in the US. Flying J is a fraction of that size and it's worth over $20B. Meanwhile, Tesla has a lower cost base for their vehicles than anybody and continues to extend this lead. No one else is even close to being profitable on mass market EVs. Right now, at full production, Tesla would earn upward of $6B of annual profit from automobile sales. At $220B, that's a ratio of 36.5. Not that bad, considering they are expanding at 50% per year. Tesla indicates they aren't making much money from the Supercharger network. Even at 16,000 charging stations, apparently it isn't a cash cow. Still, the enterprise value of this network is significant. Energy storage has become a big deal but it doesn't particularly move the needle in a $220B company. Even though they are selling quite a bit of storage product and the margin is really high, I speculate the profit from this is a rounding error. The power company side of Tesla is very likely profitable, at this point. Tesla has picked up PPAs here and there. They tip toed into the power company business and they have an arsenal of products to create a distributed power company that spans the globe. IMO, this alone is worth the valuation. So, is Tesla worth $220B? It's really tough to say. I value Tesla between 45 and 180B. Even that wide range is an approximation. Nobody can tell you what Tesla is worth precisely, as it is dependant on how the future unfolds. We could very easily look back and think summer 2020 valuation was right where it should have been. Tesla could bloom into a multi-trillion dollar business or it could go bankrupt. Place your bets.
So, I'm reading the environmental disclosure document for Tesla's Roadrunner battery facility. I can't help but focus on the chemical, "Titanium Butoxide". I'm not familiar with this chemical but I am working the word, "Butoxide" into every conversation I possibly can. Acording to Electrek, Tesla plans to offer tours of this facility in September. Two things come to mind. First, Tesla is extraordinarily good at keeping secrets. That only happens if everyone involved has integrity and believes in what they are doing. The other thing is, it's difficult to imagine a Tera battery factory in 150K square feet. That's a large industrial building but it's nothing compared to Fremont or any of the Giga facilities. The only conceivable way they could make this size building into a relevant battery plant is with dry anode. The Maxwell anode technology must be working out. That means either very large cylindrical cells or prismatic cells, as far as I know. That's a departure but doesn't seem too much of a stretch they could use this tech on the CyberTruck, Semi, or Roadster V2. I would also expect it on a Plaid edition Model S toward the end of the year. They project over 90GWh/yr power consumption, so it's not going to replace all of their other battery capacity any time soon. Rooftop solar isn't going to make much of a dint in that; it would only be for decoration. Happy Independence Day!
Tesla is now trading over $1300. Industry analysts have walked their big floppy shoes and red foam noses over to their computers to bump target prices up to something close to market. How can anyone respect analysts? 99% of them are blow-hards. They are conspicuously cheating by looking at the answer sheet and then writing the exam, but then they are still getting it wrong. My gawd...... I think the frenzy surrounds the revelation of the secret battery facility called Roadrunner. It's existence isn't all that secret but it's not exactly open to the public, either. This seems to be another case of the public thinking Tesla can stumble upon a new battery chemistry and then turn out a terawatt hour of cells a week later. I don't know why people are so caught in cartoon level thinking but this is our reality. It's going to take time to iterate cell chemistry, iterate cell production technology, and ramp production capacity. I expect these cells will go into the Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster v2. It's possible they could go into a Plaid edition Model S, as early as this fall. Tesla just increased the size of their contract with LG Chem. They need it.
