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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I am interested in investing with you! :)
     
    The Brontide and TomB16 like this.
  2. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  3. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Does CNBC still bring Bob Lutz out of cryogenic suspension every two weeks to announce that Tesla is dead, they just don't know it, yet?

    Cathy wood has consistently outperformed every other public managed fund for years and the squak box crew literally shouted her down regularly, when they would have her on to discuss Tesla. Meanwhile, there was library silence when bearshbears like Bob Lutz and Jim chanos would misquote financials and make baseless negative statements. They have been so wrong for so long, it's hard to imagine a person of intellect would consider listening to them.

    Lol!
     
  5. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    They dusted that guy off to present a bear point of view.

    Looking at charts is looking backwards see the future. Analysts offer opinions based on collected data, which is also looking backwards. Then all the "pros" spout off because that is how they get paid. Ultimately, there is no way to tell the future.

    Who would keep throwing money into a company which loses money for a decade? Lots of people. That's why the stock price is trading so high.

    John DeLorean had a dream too.
     
  6. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  7. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    I bought Albertsons IPO last Friday for about the same price. I wonder if my local Safeway will hit $1000 in 10 years.
     
  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  9. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Been watching that intently.

    If it were not for the virus shutdowns it would have been a slam dunk. Now it's on the fence.

    S&P inclusion would open up a whole new segment of broad market fund buyers of the stock.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This could all be on the up and up. I certainly hope so.

    However, it's interesting the talk of record deliveries (seems very unlikely to me) and inclusion in the S&P are hitting media outlets hours before the end of a quarter that was impacted by a shutdown for over half of the quarter.

    I hope this isn't a pump and dump but it would be a text book example of the P&D profile, if it was.

    I've been long since 2016 and then really bulked up during the media attacks of 2019 so I don't have to care about market manipulation but this stock seems to be a melting pot for predatory activity. Look at the endless lineup of short sellers. Happily, most of them are either stripped of the bulk of their net worth or bankrupt. lol!
     
    The Brontide likes this.
  11. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    I agree @TomB16

    My biggest red flag is the long delay in Q2 reporting possibly to battery day and Q3 reporting.

    Come on Elon, get those numbers out!
     
    #1652 The Brontide, Jun 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020
  12. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Oh, and btw,..

    Police are loving Tesla. Suggests they pay for themselves in less than two years.

    https://electrek.co/2020/06/30/tesla-model-3-police-cars-faster-roi-police-chief/

    "Two big things that we were looking at when shopping for cars were obviously cost and performance. Many times when you get a car that is in our cost price range, you sacrifice performance. With Tesla, the performance is better than the cars we are currently driving. It’s amazing, it’s smooth, it’s powerful, it handles great."
     
  13. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Tesla is now the most valuable car company in the world by market cap.

    And yet to produce 500,000 cars a year or score S&P inclusion.

    I love the company but I am wayyy short at this price. I don't care what the 5/10 year outlook is, it is much to spendy ATM for my money with such a high P/E.
     
  14. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  15. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here's what I can find on Tesla deliveries.

    One of the rating companies is talking about Tesla setting a delivery record. That would be over 110,000 deliveries. I don't see how.

    Shanghai April - 3600 (pre-incentive)
    Shanghai May - 11000

    Meanwhile, at Fremont, they can produce about 40k cars per month (500K cars per year).

    If we assume Shanghai delivered 11,000 cars (big assumption, they were probably creating inventory in April to have large numbers in May) in June and Fremont was running for 5 weeks following the quarantine, that's about 75,000 deliveries.

    If Tesla can pull a rabbit out of a hat, they might hit 85K deliveries for Q2.

    I know they've been working on assembly operations to increase capacity but it's tough to imagine them breaking 100K deliveries, even if Shanghai has another GA line bootstrapped by now.
     
  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    We shall see...I am optimistic. Maybe not just on deliveries but the income from auto pilot or other sources. Of course, i am just looking at profit vs no profit for the qtr. i just saw this on the news feed....

    "Just amazing how well you executed, especially in such difficult times. I am so proud to work with you!" Musk wrote.
     
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  18. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Worst case scenario would be questionable accounting, or flat out reporting inaccurate numbers on purpose.

    We don't want another Luckin.

    I don't personally believe that Elon Musk would purposely report false information. So maybe they somehow managed to do it. Even with the weeks where the factory was shut down.
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    They produced 82K vehicles and delivered 90K in Q2.

    82K production was within my 75~85 guestimate but I have learned on WeChat that Tesla has two GA lines at Giga Shanghai.

    It appears Shanghai kept producing cars at best speed during April, while customers waited for the government subsidy to kick in.

    I'm curious about the 8K cars that floated in from Q1. Tesla has a massive parking lot in Shanghai, near the port. For some reason, nobody seems to discuss it and we don't get a lot of pictures of the lot. It would be helpful to have satellite images to monitor inventory.

    It appears to me Tesla now has annual production capacity of about 550K units.

    I think Shanghai was to come online in a big way by the end of this quarter but that has been pushed back by the virus. FSD was also to come online this quarter but it is taking longer than expected.

    I expect the Q2 earnings call to be late, along with the rest of the corporate world. As well as being late, I expect a lot of talk about things they are doing, rather than things they have done.

    They appear to be set up to have a pretty massive Q3.

    I'm expecting a small loss in Q2 and a pretty big earnings number in Q3.
     
    #1660 TomB16, Jul 2, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020

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