COVID-19 Pandemic: News, Updates, Discussion

Discussion in 'The Cocktail Lounge' started by Stockaholic, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    COVID-19 In Charts

    The S&P 500 Index flirted with closing above 3,000 yesterday, even as much of the economic data is some of the worst we’ve ever seen in our lifetimes. We are often asked how this is possible. The reality is the double backstop of historic fiscal and monetary policy combined with optimism over a potential vaccine coming before the end of 2020 has created a surge of market confidence, leading to a massive equity rally.

    At the same time, much of the daily data regarding COVID-19 in the US continues to trend lower. “Yes, we have the same worries as everyone else regarding a spike in new cases as social distancing is relaxed and a potential second wave later this year,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what we know today is the number of new cases, deaths, people in hospitals, on incubators, and in ICU units are all trending lower and making some of the lowest levels seen in months. In other words, social distancing has worked so far.”

    Here are a handful of COVID-19 charts we have been watching that indeed show positive trends.

    Focusing on the LPL Chart of the Day, the US is closing in on a tragic number of 100,000 deaths, yet the overall daily number have been decreasing significantly.

    [​IMG]

    The 7-day average of new cases is the lowest since early April.

    [​IMG]

    The number of tests in the US has been coming in at more than 400,000 a day recently, and the overall percentage of positive results has been trending to new lows as well. More testing is a key to beating this, and we are seeing it.

    [​IMG]

    The number of new cases in the US was recently up only 1.2% from the previous day, another new low.

    [​IMG]

    Less than 37,000 people were hospitalized due to COVID-19, well off the peak of nearly 60,000.

    [​IMG]

    Similarily, the number of people in the ICU in the US has trended lower and is near the lowest levels since early April.

    [​IMG]

    These are all trends in the right direction and we are seeing similar results in Asia and Europe. Unfortunately, South America is being hit quite hard right now and isn’t yet at a peak. We will continue to monitor these numbers daily for clues as to whether these favorable trends are continuing.
     
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  3. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Well confirmed case at the kids daycare center today. Same age group as well. I’ll know more tomorrow and may have to self isolate for two weeks.

    I’m glad I brought my laptop and headset home from work today.
     
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  4. SomeDudeAtHome

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    This is a weird illness when it comes to kids. I hope your child doesn't catch it. That's been my biggest fear with all of this with my son. I'd be ok and could deal with whatever but some many unknowns when it comes to kids. I wish you and your family the best.
     
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  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Sorry to hear that man, stay home and take that quarantine seriously. Hope you and the family stay healthy
     
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  6. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Well the case looks like it was one of the teachers in the kiddos room so confirmed 14 day isolation. Wife was just tested so she is taking the fall if we all have it and have a symptomatic conditions.

    this is going to be interesting since both work places have told us we can work so long as neither of us have tested positive and since we have not been in close contact with the positive patient. Someone has to stay home with the kid too.
     
  7. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Well apparently 2 other teachers in the same branch tested positive and a few kids also so the county sent out notice to all parents to get their kids tested.

    Luckily my kid tested negative along with the wife however the kid has fevers and an ear infection right now. The whole branch is closed and about 60 kids are on self quarantine. The two other branches are supposedly ok right now so the entire center isn’t closed (about 120 kids).

    word from the owners is that apparently parents were trying to send their kids to other centers instead of self quarantining for 14 days which is illegal .

    This comes as apparently another large provider in town also has a large cluster come up last week/this week. It appears they may shut down the whole place if more are tested positive.

    So many people at work are not wearing masks as well saying “it doesn’t stop you from getting coronavirus” and I’m over here like, I’ll just wfh now.
     
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  8. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Sorry to hear that :( Our kid hasn't been in daycare since everything shut down in March. She's scheduled to start pre-preschool in the Fall, but who knows if that goes on as planned.
     
  9. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Ditto here. I’ve been checking often information regarding k-12 schools starting In the fall since my kid is planned for kindergarten and she absolutely can’t wait another year to start.

    The state has Said they need districts to respond whether they will do in school, mixed in school and digital, or full digital for the fall so students and families can prepare before Sept 1 start dates. I would be ok with a mixed as needed or reduced class sizes but hey, I still have to work.
     
  10. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Sorry to hear that but good to hear your kid is tested negative. Take care
     
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  11. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    @Vdubman

    I hear ya man. I I wish the best for all those exposed in your life.

    I have tested not positive last month. Did a lot of cross country travelling in February after my father passed. As of now I have learned I have now lost three people in my life just since the end of January. My wife has lost three of her work associates on both coasts also.

    I ask believers and non- believers alike, please be careful and mindful of others. Protecting yourself is protecting everyone around you. And my soul is weary of the news anymore.
     
  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Sorry for your losses :(
     
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  13. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    condolences
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  15. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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  16. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Imagine a virus that is so dangerous that you have to be tested to find out if you have it.
     
  17. Weston Gross

    Weston Gross Member

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    The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves. Everyone who got it during the second wave died of it. The Corona virus could have been genetically altered in a Chinese lab. The fact that some people who had it are getting reinfected again, makes me wonder how long this will last. Viruses seem to be worse in winter too because they like cold and dry. I think the stay at home order will have to go into affect again next Winter. My other concern is that viruses are so weird that they can do things to you years later after you got infected. It is a scary thing to image that anyone who came in contact with the virus 6 years from now, just drops dead. Or even worse, the children of the infected have problems where it starts ruining the human genetic code of the world.
     
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    The Chinese claim Americans created it in a lab, spread it in China, and then lost control.

    Roger Stone thinks LBJ killed JFK.

    Conspiracy theories are all over. Some people believe that a drug company who has never been able to bring a drug to market, created a vaccine in 3 hours.

    Now, which stocks will do well? As we carry on, people still eat. Costco, Target, Wal-Mart, Kroger, Albertsons, Grocery Outlet,. Where are people getting their meds? CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid... They still buy gas, no matter what oil cost per barrel. CASY. GTY. MPC. TA. SVC. Theory is that low interest will stimulate home sales. People still buy insurance. Car sales are picking up.

    Why is Camping World making money?
     
  19. Weston Gross

    Weston Gross Member

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    I'm fully convinced that the virus escaped from the lab, but not sure if they were just studying it or if they were altering it. You are right on those companies. Gas prices will not stay low forever. The first thing that came to mind when they started shutting everything down is that I need to buy MGM, American Airlines and Caribbean Cruise stocks. The 1930s was a perfect time to buy stocks, this might be our great depression opportunity.
     
  20. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Carnival was the buy for the Saudis. They had their choice, or could have bought Norwegian, Caribbean, and Carnival. Saudis have resources to buy all 3, if they wanted. By whatever metrics, Saudis bought Carnival.

    At shutdown, my thought was that all income stops, while overhead expense continues. Next was cancellation of booked passage, refunds on fees collected. Then there's Covid related expense to add, before they can even relaunch. Operation issues with staffing. And nobody has mentioned lawsuits yet. Not to mention that at shutdown, there were entire ships full of people stuck at sea, with no real world plan on how they were to get off the ship while people were getting sick onboard. Those ships still have staff members unable to go home.



    I looked at MGM, Ceasars, Wynn, Sands......explored who also had operations in Macau.....the REIT ownership of the buildings.......and decided to wait. Biggest concern is negative cash flow and mounting debt. Real world expectations of people returning did not materialize in Macau. But that's different. You can't drive to Macau from China. People drive into Vegas. I feel good about MGP. If MGM goes bankrupt, whomever takes over will still have to pay rent. I will buy into Vegas when conditions become lockdown 2. There will be another closure. Merger of El Dorado and Ceaser? .We're those the 2 that his merged? something to consider.

    I like the Fertitta family in Vegas. Smaller, leaner, less glamor operations. Probably easier to turn profits. Golden Nugget is now online. Stations is also a good bet. For anyone not privvy, Tilman Fertitta owns the basketball team, Landry's restaurant empire, and Golden Nugget casino. The Fertita Brothers, his cousins, owned UFC, and still have Gorden Biersch and Stations Casinos, and a resort company. One of the brothers was Nevada State Athletic Commissioner when Tyson bit Holyfield's ear off. Gordon Biersch bottles the beer for Costco and Trader Joe.


    I went United and Jet Blue. short term ride. Not greedy. Not into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. United at 24, sold at 40. Jet Blue at 8, sold at 12. I will buy airlines again, when it looks like a good hold as an investment.. But you never know. United got up to what, 45, before the drop back? If there's another pull back, I will jump in to trade. In the back of my mind, is Buffett selling out. He sold for a reason.The

    LUV SouthWest is suppose to be the strongest balance sheet. Looks like Jet Blue is now sharing operations with another airline. Was it Alaska or Hawaiian? Smaller airline s will either merge, get swallowed, or shut down. At least 1 airline will shut down, because their value will be so low and debt so high, that nobody will want it.
     
    #280 姑爺仔, Jul 18, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2020
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