They paused to review the diagnosis and symptoms and other information on the person that had a health issue. This is routine in any clinical trial. In a third stage trial with 30,000 participants there are going to be all sorts of health issues that pop up during the trial....heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc, etc, etc. They stop for a day or two to have their committee review the facts and data of the particular event. Personally.....I have NO concern about taking any vaccine. I will take this COVID vaccine as soon as it is available. After all..."science is real". The companies creating the vaccines.....all 9 or 10 of them are the leading companies in the world for this sort of work. We create multiple flu and other vaccines every year. At this point the science of vaccine creation is......basic science for these companies. In my personal opinion the level of unscientific, middle ages level thinking, and politicizing of this vaccine is CRAZY. Anyone else can do what they want. BUT they should NOT expect society to walk around in masks and shut down the economy because they refuse to take a vaccine. That is their choice........and.....their problem, not mine once I am vaccinated. In fact........if there are multiple vaccines available.......I intend to get one and 6-8 months later get a different one as a booster......UNLESS it is MEDICALLY NOT ADVISABLE. Why.....because I BELIEVE in modern medicine and science.
WXYZ, perhaps you read me wrong. I'll point out that I am a high school Bio teacher, so I have a good knowledge of how this works. I also know that RNA viruses have a high mutation rate, and for anyone to think that this vaccine will absolve them of their social responsibilities or concern is insane. Like the flu, I expect COVID to be an annual nuisance where vaccines will be needed to help prevent the spread of the anticipated strains for that year. My apprehension is not based on a lack of knowledge or a distrust in science. It is because it is so damn politicized and rushed, I do not want to be a guinea pig in this. Don't think for a second that these companies aren't eyeing the calendar to be first with one out and make a killing. I will be just as safe for others if I wear a mask and practice social distancing while I wait to see how the first months of the vaccine play out. If it is good and effective, I will happily stand in line for it like I do for the flu shot every year. Finally, I do not have hope in Nov. as a date. If it is Nov.-Feb., I'm not sure I want to go to a medical office with all the sick people coming in. That'll be peak COVID season again. Bleh!
In China and Russia, they are testing their vaccines with over 100,000 "volunteers". I believe it's China which has already administered a vaccine to hundreds of thousands in the military. Although my personal bias believes that none of the soldiers had a choice to refuse. One of Putin's daughters has been injected. The Foot says RLFTF As the virus mutates to new strains, the vaccines will also have to be reformulated. We may have to get annual Covid vaccination.
Here's a macro factor to consider. Thomas Piketty wrote a highly acclaimed book, "r > g". The book is about how rate of return (r) can be greater than economic growth (g) for a really long duration. Consider, if an economy is growing at 3%, how can you earn 10% consistently for a century? Where are those earnings coming from? They aren't coming from increased economic activity. Those earnings represent a concentration of wealth. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This is a very well founded idea, not a hypothetical musing. Now, consider the fed pumping trillions into the market. This is a turbo-charger for income disparity and that is exactly what we've seen. Considering the above, now is the time people should invest like they've never invested before. People should be buying anything that isn't bolted down. Things that are bolted down should be carefully unmounted with an ax and purchased. I believe the ability to climb out of the gutter and build a successful life still exists but it is becoming more of a lottery win. Back in the 50s, anyone could do it. Today, it's a one in a million shot. The cost of not being invested has become so high, investing is pretty much a necessity of survival. This definitely influences my thoughts on selling down prior to a down-turn. I knew COVID was coming at the very start of the year. I also knew a market crash. We did sell a few things and we definitely turned off reinvestment but the vast majority of our holdings rode through the rough financial terrain. In retrospect, that was the correct decision and I can't imagine a situation that would have me sell down significantly in the future, either. On the other hand, it's easy for us to stay in the market. We're doing very well. To take a risk would expose us almost exclusively to downside. In cases where the risk pays a reward, we can use the money but we certainly don't need it. So, it doesn't seem all that wise. This is one of so many conflicting signals, it's tough to process.
That is a fantastic post, and it clears up a lot of thoughts I had about economic progress vs. the market. With traditional savings funds paying out almost nothing, the only viable path is the stock market. That's where all the well heeled people are parking a lot of money, because that is where the money is made. Those who do not invest get buried with low interest rates and an ever rising cost of living. Unfortunately, this does not bode well for lower middle-class and working class families trying to move on up.
The stock market is where the transfer of wealth happens. Less affluent people eat at McDonalds and shop at Wal*Mart. More affluent people own stock in McDonald's and Wal*Mart. Poor people eating fast food get heart disease. People with stocks in medical company making pace makers profit.
It's so difficult to be objective about politics but I contend it is not impossible. My own philosophy and thoughts on who to vote have zero value for my portfolio. These things need to be compartmentalized and ignored. Other people's idea on how to vote has a tiny bit of interest to me. I like to get a feel of the electorate. The point is, I'm just interested in a 10K foot view of people's thoughts. I could care less about their conspiracy theories, four page rants, or threats toward people who have a different philosophy. I only care about having a rough idea of the group view from a statistical perspective. On the political side, I care a bit more about political platforms. What politicians promise to do matters but just barely. I don't consider their platforms to be facts, just relevant to the political landscape. For example, I did not invest in coal after the 2016 election. A friend of mine did; heavily. Guess which one of us lost a ton of money on coal investments. In terms of governance, that is the most interesting aspect of politics. Actually, it shouldn't be political but it definitely is. Following governance is tedious and massively time consuming. As best I can tell, nobody can fully keep up with it including people in government. I consider this point of view to be a source of profit. In 2015, there was talk of mandating backup cameras in cars. That would have poured money on a few specific auto industry suppliers. The key is watching the discussion and trying to get a feel of where it's going without blinding yourself with a philosophical tirade on whether backup cameras should be legislated. With objectivity comes success.
Semantics matter. Sometimes the markets are kind to us. Other times the markets bring us buy opportunities. Our wealth, however, has come from business. People in the markets endlessly talk about stock price. We follow stock quotes like the FBI watching the Zapruder film. From my perspective, that is exactly the same as the guy in a casino who stares into the display of a one armed bandit, hoping it will come up cherries. An investor looks for a well run company that is either expanding and/or distributing it's profit among the owners. Once found, that company is purchased if it can be had at a reasonable price. I view owning a hospital REIT the same way I would view getting together with WXYZ to buy a hospital. I could throw in $1M, WXYZ could throw in another $29M, and we could buy a hospital. That hospital would then be 50 year leased to a company to administer a hospital. From there, WXYZ and I could retire to a beautiful mansion with my wife and I living in the basement servant's quarters. A REIT should have the same dynamic. In cases where the REIT does not have the same dynamic, as is often the case, I don't get involved. In 2003, I owned a mall REIT that was said to be doing very well. It was a multi-billion dollar REIT back then. Still is. They were 98.5% leased. The rate per square foot was going up. The narrative was fantastic! This REIT was paying out 3.6%. When I looked at the books, I could see they had three bumper years and in each of the last 12 quarters, there was a reason at each EC why profits were down. The quarter in which I sold, they cited the purchase of two properties totalling 11M. That's not much of an expansion for a $2.5B REIT. Clearly, money was being siphoned. So, I exited that position at a very small gain. ... but the price is about to go up! Everyone is excited about this stock! I could care less about that. That's sucker's bait. I make money from business, not from the shell game we call the markets. There is a company right now that is having some COVID related hard times. Customers of this business are struggling. They have shut off their dividend. Executives have taken a 20% pay cut. They have moved to an austerity program. This business is about to become one of my largest core holdings. This is exactly how it should be done. If you have been on the verge of getting rich all your life, but just haven't connected yet, you are a gambler. I am not. I fought and worked my way to where we are today. We certainly aren't wildly wealthy but I wouldn't trade our position with anyone. For the folks who want to gamble, consider this: If you are the smartest person in the room, why are you willing to redistribute wealth? If you had the most wealth, you would not want a redistribution. If you're at the bottom of the back, you are probably not the smartest person in the room. Now, pick up a shovel and start digging. Trying to get passers by to dig the hole has not been a winning strategy so maybe it's time for a re-think.
I have $46.98 to chip in, if I hold back a bucket of chicken. 1 less hot date, as an investment to my future. Can I get the room over the garage? The chauffeur quarters? My whole life, I scored girls from.band camp, math club, debate team......Just haven't connected with the cheerleader. Just like my investment portfolio. Boring, ugly, nothing to get excited over. Never got that hot tip or IPO. Is that what I have to look forward to?
Sorry about all the clips. Peter Lynch on volatility. This is why I hold back a bit of cash and try to capitalize on the corrections. According to the statistics Peter Lynch cites: 50 corrections of 10% or more every 93 years If you are patient, the deal you want will come along.
I won't flood this blog with Peter Lynch videos but I just watched his entire 1994 presentation at the National Press club (very short clips above). He was running Fidelity Investments, at the time. He just hit every point I've been harping on for two years. I hadn't seen the video until yesterday so I declare I am not plagarizing his point of view. - Retail investors can do just as well as professional investors - Understand the companies you buy - Do not to trade based on stock price, look at fundamentals - Macro factors cannot be predicted - etc. This video is 50m in length, so I doubt anyone will have the attention span for it, but it is absolutely brilliant and advice that is spot on in 2020.
Long term investing is extremely difficult. We are our own worst enemies. For some reason, it is excruciatingly difficult for people to do nothing. Anyone who has lived in a rural environment knows that giving someone specific instructions yields an extremely low chance of success: Drive 11 miles down road X and then turn left at the road with three oak trees The number of people who can drive 11 miles, identify three trees, and turn is perhaps 1 in 10? Most people will get to 4.7 miles, see some bush and a rock, and wonder if that's the turn. "But, it's an extremely large rock so this must be it." We do our best to talk ourselves into doing something when our pre-decided process indicates to do nothing. I watch investing videos for two reasons. One, I'm entertaining myself while I endlessly do nothing. It's boring. There is no question why people don't prefer long term investing; it's less exciting than watching paint dry. The second reason is to reinforce good investing practice and prevent my brain from trying to trick me into trying a bunch of new ideas. Companies are new. Industries are new. Investing practices are age old. If you went back to 3500BC and found two companies making wheels, identifying the best company would be the same as selecting between Nikola and Tesla. Look for: Honesty, Hard work, and intelligence..... in that order
Yahoo Finance did story last Thursday that indicates 60% of businesses that shut down due to COVID are now out of business. This is an unusual time. Some sectors of the market have been decimated while others are doing much better under COVID conditions than before. I'm looking at the struggling sector and I see a couple of significant opportunities. There are businesses I am very confident will come back in the next 24 months that are currently operating fully in austerity mode. When I see a business cut executive compensation by 20%, cut work force to a minimum, and turn off the dividend, that is a good sign. When they did that at the start of March before they had to react, I know the business is well run. The market is punishing this business due to the dividend cut so these present amazing values on businesses I want to own. I'm not ready to cite these organizations specifically, as I plan to continue uploading them into our portfolio until the end of the year. Even then, I'm not big on sharing our holdings. We don't have the 50% market crash that we probably should have but we have quite a few companies down 70+% while others gain. One of the companies I lust after would be at a P/E of 3 and pay 20% dividend, if their business was healthy and the old distribution was in place. This company has little debt so they their ability to survive seems pretty much assured.
