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TomB16 investing blog

Discussion in 'Investing' started by TomB16, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    They paused to review the diagnosis and symptoms and other information on the person that had a health issue. This is routine in any clinical trial. In a third stage trial with 30,000 participants there are going to be all sorts of health issues that pop up during the trial....heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc, etc, etc. They stop for a day or two to have their committee review the facts and data of the particular event.

    Personally.....I have NO concern about taking any vaccine. I will take this COVID vaccine as soon as it is available. After all..."science is real". The companies creating the vaccines.....all 9 or 10 of them are the leading companies in the world for this sort of work. We create multiple flu and other vaccines every year. At this point the science of vaccine creation is......basic science for these companies. In my personal opinion the level of unscientific, middle ages level thinking, and politicizing of this vaccine is CRAZY.

    Anyone else can do what they want. BUT they should NOT expect society to walk around in masks and shut down the economy because they refuse to take a vaccine. That is their choice........and.....their problem, not mine once I am vaccinated.

    In fact........if there are multiple vaccines available.......I intend to get one and 6-8 months later get a different one as a booster......UNLESS it is MEDICALLY NOT ADVISABLE. Why.....because I BELIEVE in modern medicine and science.
     
    B Russ and TomB16 like this.
  2. roadtonowhere08

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    WXYZ, perhaps you read me wrong. I'll point out that I am a high school Bio teacher, so I have a good knowledge of how this works. I also know that RNA viruses have a high mutation rate, and for anyone to think that this vaccine will absolve them of their social responsibilities or concern is insane. Like the flu, I expect COVID to be an annual nuisance where vaccines will be needed to help prevent the spread of the anticipated strains for that year.

    My apprehension is not based on a lack of knowledge or a distrust in science. It is because it is so damn politicized and rushed, I do not want to be a guinea pig in this. Don't think for a second that these companies aren't eyeing the calendar to be first with one out and make a killing. I will be just as safe for others if I wear a mask and practice social distancing while I wait to see how the first months of the vaccine play out. If it is good and effective, I will happily stand in line for it like I do for the flu shot every year.

    Finally, I do not have hope in Nov. as a date. If it is Nov.-Feb., I'm not sure I want to go to a medical office with all the sick people coming in. That'll be peak COVID season again. Bleh!
     
    T0rm3nted, B Russ and TomB16 like this.
  3. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    In China and Russia, they are testing their vaccines with over 100,000 "volunteers". I believe it's China which has already administered a vaccine to hundreds of thousands in the military. Although my personal bias believes that none of the soldiers had a choice to refuse. One of Putin's daughters has been injected.

    The Foot says RLFTF


    As the virus mutates to new strains, the vaccines will also have to be reformulated. We may have to get annual Covid vaccination.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here's a macro factor to consider.

    Thomas Piketty wrote a highly acclaimed book, "r > g".

    The book is about how rate of return (r) can be greater than economic growth (g) for a really long duration. Consider, if an economy is growing at 3%, how can you earn 10% consistently for a century? Where are those earnings coming from? They aren't coming from increased economic activity.

    Those earnings represent a concentration of wealth. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This is a very well founded idea, not a hypothetical musing.

    Now, consider the fed pumping trillions into the market. This is a turbo-charger for income disparity and that is exactly what we've seen.

    Considering the above, now is the time people should invest like they've never invested before. People should be buying anything that isn't bolted down. Things that are bolted down should be carefully unmounted with an ax and purchased.

    I believe the ability to climb out of the gutter and build a successful life still exists but it is becoming more of a lottery win. Back in the 50s, anyone could do it. Today, it's a one in a million shot.

    The cost of not being invested has become so high, investing is pretty much a necessity of survival. This definitely influences my thoughts on selling down prior to a down-turn. I knew COVID was coming at the very start of the year. I also knew a market crash. We did sell a few things and we definitely turned off reinvestment but the vast majority of our holdings rode through the rough financial terrain. In retrospect, that was the correct decision and I can't imagine a situation that would have me sell down significantly in the future, either.

    On the other hand, it's easy for us to stay in the market. We're doing very well. To take a risk would expose us almost exclusively to downside. In cases where the risk pays a reward, we can use the money but we certainly don't need it. So, it doesn't seem all that wise.


    This is one of so many conflicting signals, it's tough to process.
     
    #464 TomB16, Sep 17, 2020 at 8:08 PM
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2020 at 11:22 PM
  5. roadtonowhere08

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    That is a fantastic post, and it clears up a lot of thoughts I had about economic progress vs. the market.

    With traditional savings funds paying out almost nothing, the only viable path is the stock market. That's where all the well heeled people are parking a lot of money, because that is where the money is made. Those who do not invest get buried with low interest rates and an ever rising cost of living.

    Unfortunately, this does not bode well for lower middle-class and working class families trying to move on up.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  6. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    The stock market is where the transfer of wealth happens.

    Less affluent people eat at McDonalds and shop at Wal*Mart. More affluent people own stock in McDonald's and Wal*Mart. Poor people eating fast food get heart disease. People with stocks in medical company making pace makers profit.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It's so difficult to be objective about politics but I contend it is not impossible.

    My own philosophy and thoughts on who to vote have zero value for my portfolio. These things need to be compartmentalized and ignored.

    Other people's idea on how to vote has a tiny bit of interest to me. I like to get a feel of the electorate. The point is, I'm just interested in a 10K foot view of people's thoughts. I could care less about their conspiracy theories, four page rants, or threats toward people who have a different philosophy. I only care about having a rough idea of the group view from a statistical perspective.

    On the political side, I care a bit more about political platforms. What politicians promise to do matters but just barely. I don't consider their platforms to be facts, just relevant to the political landscape. For example, I did not invest in coal after the 2016 election. A friend of mine did; heavily. Guess which one of us lost a ton of money on coal investments.

    In terms of governance, that is the most interesting aspect of politics. Actually, it shouldn't be political but it definitely is. Following governance is tedious and massively time consuming. As best I can tell, nobody can fully keep up with it including people in government.

    I consider this point of view to be a source of profit.

    In 2015, there was talk of mandating backup cameras in cars. That would have poured money on a few specific auto industry suppliers.

    The key is watching the discussion and trying to get a feel of where it's going without blinding yourself with a philosophical tirade on whether backup cameras should be legislated. With objectivity comes success.
     
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