Hi all, I just joined this forum moments ago hoping for some tips or insights on how I am currently doing in my stock investment, and hopefully this is the right place. I have been using Robinhood for a little over one year now. As much I'd like to play stocks as a long term investor, at least that was what I planned on doing when I started back in Jan 2020, I realize that I have been doing a lot more sells lately and not holding on as a normal long term investor would do, I feel quite nervous and uncertain about what I am doing now. Over the course of the one year I have managed to maintain my profit margin to 30-40%. I am not sure if that is a good number or not, but I tried my best to hold onto my stocks without selling any of them until recent events with the harsh drop every single day for weeks! Was it wrong wanting to keep the rest of the $700 profit when I gave the company trust and waited from the $1500 mark? Sure, my friends are saying the company will grow more than $1500 profit in 3 months or 1 year, but does it not make sense to get the profit now so I can put more into the company later? I graduated from university a few years back and although not a high income job I do have a stable income of about $2200 a month for these past few years, everyone is trying to make the best of their life especially during this pandemic crisis when financial situation just isn't great at all, this was the main reason why I started my investment in stocks. But I am wondering now, if I am doing the right thing with the little savings I have, am I investing correctly or if I am just making a fool of myself by not sticking to the rule of being a long-term investor? My top stocks were Fuel Cell, Tesla, Nio, and Plug Power, all of which are still dropping so much after weeks or even months now, I really felt the urge to pull out, after watching my green number (dollar profit) lessening to below 50% of the original... This is just painful.
I dont really have a good answer for you or follow your stocks other than Tesla.....but......a 30-40% profit over just a year or so is GREAT. AND....I have NEVER regretted taking a nice profit off the table and reinvesting in something else. I have regretted a time or two......not taking profits. As you are seeing....it is much harder for most to decide when or if to sell and lock in a great gains....versus deciding to buy. NOT giving specific investing advice......since i am not a trader.
These are not normal numbers for a typical market. We are in a massive bull market and frenzy stage up here where everything is flying. Suddenly anybody with a Robinhood account is an expert and wants you to know that you too can make +500% easily just like them. This will not last forever. Take profits when the come. You will never get the exact top, but you will also have enough money to take new positions when the opportunity comes, and it always does.
Once stocks make a climatic high and pull back they will usually try to retest the high and then go into a trading range consolidation, where-in the big players will either re-accumulate the stock from the panicky public or they will distribute the stock to the public. FCEL appears like it still needs to try and retest the high. TSLA and NIO have fallen out of a trading range (TR) but so far are not showing a large amount of supply (of stock) coming into the market, as judged by the trading volumes after the retest of the high. In other words there is no sign of weakness, no sign that the big boys are dumping shares. Until there is that sign of weakness you have to assume the uptrend is intact. This decline below the trading range shows a lack of demand but the big boys are not selling. They may be letting it go down to sop up shares from weak hands. They should try to take it back up to retest the bottom of the TR. The character of that retest will be your decision point...that is, unless you decide to take your bread off the table now. If it looks like it will close in the lower half of today's range, then the probabilities favor further decline tomorrow. (Generally the dumb money trades at the open and smart money trades at the close). TSLA has strong support at 700.
Thank you for the breakdown. Although I get a strong feeling of a good analysis being explained to me, sorry I must admit I still have much to learn and therefore cannot fully comprehend this knowledge you are sharing with me. Does that mean TSLA and Nio are just temporarily declining? How were you able to read the stocks or conclude that "big boys are not selling"? I really wish I could read the stocks as well as you do. Right now, I am still learning stocks on my own, without taking any classes, but if there are videos or books you recommend I would greatly appreciate the information. Nothing beats earning money at home and literally hold your own fate in your own hands.
Does that mean TSLA and Nio are just temporarily declining? Yes, but they may not regain their previous highs. How were you able to read the stocks or conclude that "big boys are not selling"? From the trading volume. Between Jan 13 and today there hasn't been unusually high trading volume to indicate that big hands are selling their shares. Nothing beats earning money at home and literally hold your own fate in your own hands. Don't quit your day job. I haven't. I've read a lot of books but I don't recommend them, except a couple related to Wyckoff. Most books on technical analysis teach mechanical tricks, e.g., pattern recognition, indicators (lagging derivatives of price and volume), etc. My #1 book is "The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks" copyright 1934. That study book cost about $3,500 back when gold was valued at $20, so it'd be about $300,000 in today's doll hairs. You might be able to find it on line. There are lots of free resources online. Search Wyckoff on youtube or look for tubes in "A Wyckoff Student Notebook" in the Trading Journal Forum of this site or start here at this link: The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial [ChartSchool] (stockcharts.com) and then at Message #1016 here: A Wyckoff Student Notebook | Page 51 | Stockaholics
