Stock Market Today: June 27th - July 1st

this move is very interesting, this is the perfect opportunity for retailers to get top ticked, meaning people think the waters are clear which such a strong move upwards 3 days in a row, you go and buy only to have it sell off in your face.

but if we dont sell off and we really retake the levels before the vote then i dont even know what to say lol

 

yea man im so tempted to short the markets right here, so so tempted, but even if my logic is telling me its a good spot to short, my emotions got me scared lol, such a huge move weve had man. i would feel some type of way if i shorted and this thing went back to 2100 lol.

 

2120 before the week is over, anything is possible in this market. It's almost like I need to start doing the exact opposite of my instinct.

Oh well, staying the course until the bulls can show me they have the strength to make new ATH after nearly 2 years, then it would be time to go back into hibernation.

Not much I am certain of these days, but one thing I feel fairly confident about is that when this thing finally does drop, it is going to drop hard (30%+).

 

my god T stock is the best looking thing i have ever seen, so beautiful, i am proud to have been owning this baby since i started my portfolio last year july.

 

So apparently reverse repos have been 2-3x normal this week and tomorrow is set to be 5x normal. Be careful bears. I think I should just start trading based on the repo schedule in all honesty.

 

..... and where is the market today? Exactly.

Volatility is a word obsessed over by short-term traders, not long term market influencers ..... the latter do not give a shit.

Nothing is changing until cheap money around the world is removed from the system. Until then people can scream all they want at the top of their lungs that every pullback is "THE ONE!!!!", but it will keep getting bought up - because cheap money loves the high risk, high reward returns from equities.

Play the game until it ends.

 

NIce Ken! I've been watching but not playing. Awesome that someone here's been getting some of that. End of month on rotation and 401k deposits so the money funds might be making large buys on the dip. Next week will be interesting, perhaps some extra fireworks will be happening in the market. There's still an 80 pt difference in the yield move vs price of stocks last few days so I gotta go with the bond market being more saavy still. It's going to be an interesting close and Friday.

 

Completely agree about the cheap money driving everything. But, I also think cheap money has painted itself into a corner. If markets start to rise much it will trigger rate hikes, or at least speculation of hikes that will bring the market back down. If markets do down significantly, it will take rate hikes of the table, with possible rate cuts sending markets higher. This buffering mechanism just serves to keep markets in a range bound state which is evident over the last 2 years.

It's gonna go this way until something gives. Until then only way to make money is ride the volatility and buy the dip, sell the rip.

 

I played today all wrong in my l/t acct, I really thought the markets were in dead cat mode and I raised cash in my l/t portfolio (75% lol) eod yesterday. I'm not chasing here though won't even consider any longs unless we make new highs and then I'll only have a look (that's only 2% max from yesterdays highs). until then I'm sticking with the dead cat theory and I just timed it wrong. I'm up 12% in my l/t acct ytd and I'll take that for the whole year if needed. I did make my day in my trading acct though, go figure it was a short lol.

 

oil keeps bouncing around between 45 and 50, i missed buying the last dip around 46, i will be sure to be alert if it hits those levels this time around.

 

eh....i got in some SQQQ right at the close, that buying was crazy. i would beleive the rally more if gold and bonds pulled back, but they all stayed afloat as we have had this rally, lets see how this plays out.

 

Today's Market Thoughts

 

Big divergence between the VIX and SKEW. Market is oddly complacent, but crash protection is in high demand from big investors.

 

Reverse repos are basically QE. They provide liquidity via short term loans. Here is a messy chart of the last month.

 

Reverse Repo's from the FED provide a safe haven in times of uncertainty. This supports the same narative we are seing with bonds, gold, utilities, consumer staples, etc. Big investors are nervous about the possibility of something big happening and are positioning themselves for protection.

Reverse repo's are the opposite of QE. They take money out of the financial system. With QE the FED purchases bonds with money it creates digitally out of thin air. With a reverse repo the FED exchanges bonds for money with an agreement the bonds will be purchased back in the future with a fixed interest rate, currently a whopping .25%.

 

You're right about that. I should have just stuck with liquidity lol, comparing it to QE was a bad idea in hindsight.