Be careful watching 10 minute sample sizes. Auto companies will vary greatly on cars going out the doors depending on the hour of day, etc. For example, if a production shift runs for 10 hours, they'll typically run repair for 12 hours. Those last 2 hours, they'll repair X amount of cars and put them on the final validation line to be processed immediately by the next shift (or that same shift the next day if the plant runs one shift of production). That validation line will be packed and ready to pump them out as quick as possible because they're much closer together than a normal production rate. If the normal rate is let's say 60 per hour for an example and repair ran longer than production, it's EXTREMELY simple to justify a 90 per hour without the plant running at 90 per hour all day. I'd be more interested to hear production hours and then check cars out the door over a much larger sample size like 24 hours.
Me too. None the less, Tesla delivered 936,000 cars in 2021. With the big ramp at the end of the year, Tesla is clearly producing at a rate way beyond 1M cars annually. Giga Berlin appears completely ready for production. If they can manage a production permit, cars will start coming out of that factory in extremely limited numbers. Texas.... Is getting there.
A list of target price increases today: Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner raised the price target on $TSLA to $1,200 (from $1,000) while maintaining a Buy rating. Deutsche Bank says $TSLA can deliver 1.5 million vehicles in 2022 $TSLA price target raised from $250 to $295 at JPMorgan Chase Goldman Sachs reiterates $TSLA with Buy rating, $1125 price target Canaccord Genuity reiterates $TSLA with Buy rating, $1040 price target Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois reiterated a Buy rating and $1,400 price target on $TSLA following strong delivery numbers. KGI Adjusts $TSLA Price Target to $1,480 From $1,000, Maintains Outperform Rating. RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak raised the price target on $TSLA to $1,005 (from $950) while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. Gary Black: $TSLA catalysts - 1/3 1/ FY’22 Vol/EPS increase 1/3 2/ 4Q EPS/product roadmap 1/26 3/ Berlin/Austin open Jan 4/ Inv Grade Upgrade Feb 5/ Biden $8K EV credit Mar 6/ FSD beta launch F’22 2Q 7/ 4680 scale product’n F’22 2H 8/ CyTruck launch F’22 2H 9/ Compact launch F’23 $1,400 PT
Bought another LEAP earlier this morning: 10-year yield rises to 1.8% to start the week, with inflation data in focus https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/us-bonds-treasury-yields-climb-as-investors-eye-inflation-data.html
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has raised his price target on $TSLA to $1,300 (from $1,200) while maintaining a Overweight rating.
Leon — Help me out here. I’m a little older, never played the options game — but I think that a LEAP is exactly the play that I’m looking for. Based on the numbers I’m projecting (Fremont +20%, Shanghai +40%, and Texas / Berlin with double ramps), I’m confident that $TSLA stock price will exceed 1800 by Jan 24. In your opinion (not asking for investment advice) what would be the best LEAPS play for these assumptions. Thanks!
Thinking on Tesla Production. Chime in if alternate. Four factories: Fremont - Minor changes in 2022. Shanghai - Additional Y Line buildout. Texas - 2 Y lines Q1 2022 - Imminent. Berlin - 1 Y line Q1/Q2 — Local delays expected. Installed capacity: Fremont - 444k (2021) - [RunRate2022] = 550k Shanghai - 485 (2021). [RunRate] = 1M - current 2000 EV/day + Additional Y Line buildout. Texas - [projRunRate] = 300k - Conservative 2 Y Lines buildout. Berlin - [projRunRate] = 100k - Delayed 1 Y Line buildout. [RunRate2021] -> Doubling [RunRate2022] Aleternate Considerations: Energy, FSD, AI, Robotics, Logistics. Insurance, Robotaxi If Morgan Stanley bumps Target from $1200 to 1300 based upon movement from (1.22M units up to 1.46M units at 20.5% margin) Stating the Bull case @ $1600 (which would imply 2.18M vehicles at 20,5% margin or 1.95M vehicles at 23.0% margin) then how would they value margins at 35%??? Conclusion: Tesla guides for 50% growth, but seems poised to deliver almost 100% growth. What is their worth considering an already significant run-up. What is the fair PE is you consider the business today. What PE is fair if you consider Tesla the largest business in the world come 2025?
There is a parking lot full of brand new Teslas, at Giga Berlin. This doesn't necessarily mean they have a production permit. There is some sort of pre-production approval that allows them to build a couple of thousand cars for testing and promotion. They must be on the cusp of production approval, though. They appear to be ready to go. Giga Berlin is on the cusp of a significant milestone.
There is some value in considering the 4680 roll-out. Giga Texas is expected to begin production with 4680 structural packs. I speculate Roadrunner output will be used for the semi and possibly to augment production in Texas. Texas is either near or already producing cells. I expect the latter. Shanghai and Berlin are a few months away from production, as best I can tell. I don't have much insight into the length of the production pipeline. Anodes do require an aging process but I don't know if this requires minutes, hours, days, etc. If someone can share some knowledge, it would be extremely helpful. Here are my guesses: Cell production - 4 days (with dry anode) Pack production - 1 day
The SEC is investigating complaints on 30 firms. One of the firms is a Tesla short seller. I doubt much will come of this. Even if fines are levied, I doubt they will be high enough to discourage the greasy behavior we have been watching happen for years.
Giga Texas has been under construction for 19 months. Giga Berlin has been under construction for over 24 months.
Inventory at Giga Shanghai is essentially zero. The inventory lot is empty, save perhaps ten cars. Shanghai has been exporting cars en mass, so that has undoubtedly consumed a huge volume of cars but that doesn't explain the near zero inventory. I suspect a production stoppage, likely related to scheduled line maintenance and upgrades. Meanwhile, the cell building continues to evolve but I speculate is a couple of months away from completion.
