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Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.
It looks like 1 Model Y per 25 seconds in average from this video.
Been wanting to get rid of these. Itchy trade finger syndrome.
Be careful watching 10 minute sample sizes. Auto companies will vary greatly on cars going out the doors depending on the hour of day, etc. For example, if a production shift runs for 10 hours, they'll typically run repair for 12 hours. Those last 2 hours, they'll repair X amount of cars and put them on the final validation line to be processed immediately by the next shift (or that same shift the next day if the plant runs one shift of production). That validation line will be packed and ready to pump them out as quick as possible because they're much closer together than a normal production rate. If the normal rate is let's say 60 per hour for an example and repair ran longer than production, it's EXTREMELY simple to justify a 90 per hour without the plant running at 90 per hour all day. I'd be more interested to hear production hours and then check cars out the door over a much larger sample size like 24 hours.
None the less, Tesla delivered 936,000 cars in 2021.
With the big ramp at the end of the year, Tesla is clearly producing at a rate way beyond 1M cars annually.
Giga Berlin appears completely ready for production. If they can manage a production permit, cars will start coming out of that factory in extremely limited numbers.
Texas.... Is getting there.
916 to 1,165.xx in less than 2 weeks. I'm satisfied.
A list of target price increases today:
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner raised the price target on $TSLA to $1,200 (from $1,000) while maintaining a Buy rating. Deutsche Bank says $TSLA can deliver 1.5 million vehicles in 2022
$TSLA price target raised from $250 to $295 at JPMorgan Chase
Goldman Sachs reiterates $TSLA with Buy rating, $1125 price target
Canaccord Genuity reiterates $TSLA with Buy rating, $1040 price target
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois reiterated a Buy rating and $1,400 price target on $TSLA following strong delivery numbers.
KGI Adjusts $TSLA Price Target to $1,480 From $1,000, Maintains Outperform Rating.
RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak raised the price target on $TSLA to $1,005 (from $950) while maintaining a Sector Perform rating.
$TSLA catalysts - 1/3
1/ FY’22 Vol/EPS increase 1/3
2/ 4Q EPS/product roadmap 1/26
3/ Berlin/Austin open Jan
4/ Inv Grade Upgrade Feb
5/ Biden $8K EV credit Mar
6/ FSD beta launch F’22 2Q
7/ 4680 scale product’n F’22 2H
8/ CyTruck launch F’22 2H
9/ Compact launch F’23
We need a forward split.
Good news! Nikola has dropped it's patent suit against Tesla.
Nikola is afraid of Tesla's good faith patents.
Bought another LEAP this morning.
Bought another LEAP earlier this morning:
10-year yield rises to 1.8% to start the week, with inflation data in focus
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has raised his price target on $TSLA to $1,300 (from $1,200) while maintaining a Overweight rating.
Leon — Help me out here. I’m a little older, never played the options game — but I think that a LEAP is exactly the play that I’m looking for.
Based on the numbers I’m projecting (Fremont +20%, Shanghai +40%, and Texas / Berlin with double ramps), I’m confident that $TSLA stock price will exceed 1800 by Jan 24.
In your opinion (not asking for investment advice) what would be the best LEAPS play for these assumptions.
Thinking on Tesla Production.
Chime in if alternate.
Fremont - Minor changes in 2022.
Shanghai - Additional Y Line buildout.
Texas - 2 Y lines Q1 2022 - Imminent.
Berlin - 1 Y line Q1/Q2 — Local delays expected.
Fremont - 444k (2021) - [RunRate2022] = 550k
Shanghai - 485 (2021). [RunRate] = 1M - current 2000 EV/day + Additional Y Line buildout.
Texas - [projRunRate] = 300k - Conservative 2 Y Lines buildout.
Berlin - [projRunRate] = 100k - Delayed 1 Y Line buildout.
[RunRate2021] -> Doubling [RunRate2022]
Aleternate Considerations: Energy, FSD, AI, Robotics, Logistics. Insurance, Robotaxi
If Morgan Stanley bumps Target from $1200 to 1300 based upon movement from (1.22M units up to 1.46M units at 20.5% margin)
Stating the Bull case @ $1600 (which would imply 2.18M vehicles at 20,5% margin or 1.95M vehicles at 23.0% margin) then how would they value margins at 35%???
Conclusion: Tesla guides for 50% growth, but seems poised to deliver almost 100% growth.
What is their worth considering an already significant run-up. What is the fair PE is you consider the business today. What PE is fair if you consider Tesla the largest business in the world come 2025?