I didn't even look at the original posts; you just said, "If you look back to February of last year in this thread, you will se me predicting AMD will come close to catching nVidia". All I am saying is that since February 2024, Nvidia's stock has nearly tripled while AMD's has mostly stagnated/gone down. Maybe you meant that in terms of revenue, or purchases, or reputation, or technical superiority, AMD would be close to NVDA...but in terms of stock price, that clearly hasn't happened. Fundamentally, that's what this forum should be about: making good investments, no? Don't be such a snowflake, poisoning the well... What do you mean by this? As far as I've read, 80+% of the share of the GPU space belongs to nVidia. I can't tell if you are trolling, because here is what we do know: 18 months ago, you said that AMD would be close to NVDA. Looking at the stock price, I don't see how you could consider that prediction validated. You'd have been much better buying NVDA than AMD over that timespan. Yet here we are, and you are the one pretending that you "called it exactly correct".
I have never talked about short term price fluctuations. Well, that's not entirely accurate. I've talked about my view on how short term fluctuations are gambling and not knowable by anyone. I've never used the term "fool's errand" but I' using it right now. Every post I make is about the future and 2 to 10 year technology horizons. I'm on top of AMD, the processes they use, the processes they plan to use, how TSMC is coming along with current and future process nodes, and details of business performance including product supply and manufacturing inputs. I'm an investor. I have many times acknowledged that 98% of people who buy stocks see randomly fluctuating numbers and an opportunity to gamble on them. I look past the numbers and toward the companies themselves. That is the topic of every one of my posts. If you think the market is always right then it is absolutely vital to understand the business. Since you trust the market to understand the business, a business that is prospering will be reflected in the market price. If you believe the market makes mistakes, it is absolutely vital to understand the business. In this scenario, the goal is to find price anomalies where the company is under priced and purchase them below market. Some investors also try to capitalize on over priced equities. I do not. For the rest of the traders (98% of people), enjoy the randomly changing numbers. Please accept my best wishes for good luck and prosperity.
I'll just leave this here and people can judge my content for themselves. This post is not from April 2025. It's from April 2024. Before Zen 5. People were still talking about the new AM5 socket for Zen4 forcing motherboard upgrades and the high cost of DDR5. Intel was the top dog. nVidia absolutely dominated the GPU market with their 4000 series parts. nVidia was hitting their stride in AI with no one else even close. It shows how much can be understood about a company and the market it operates in, by following closely and rejecting noise.
I think your guys argument was simply a misunderstanding. @TomB16 mentioned AMD catching up to NVDA and said he called it, and Rolexian understood that to mean that Tom meant that should be reflected in the stock price, which he pointed out is obviously not true. I don't see any bad faith here, just a misunderstanding about what is being talked about by each person. Anyways, I'm personally invested in both, so I'm hedged for either's success and enjoying while they're both succeeding.
I think this might be what happened, but even then I'm not sure where he gets his numbers that AMD has caught up to NVDA in GPU sales.
It looks to me like AMD will be eating some, perhaps a small part, of nVidia's AI lunch by the end of this year. The AMD demos are extremely impressive. nVidia's PowerPoint stack is a bit lacking in detail or specifics, IMO. Still, AMD won't dominate nVidia this year or next in the AI space but I expect them to make significant inroads by late next year. AMD Helios is very impressive, a huge step forward, an important milestone for AMD, but not nVidia beating. When that day comes that AMD starts getting most of the smaller AI cluster wins, a lot of people will say they knew it would happen, all along. lol! I'm pretty confident the recent nVidia slump is related to China partially blocking GPU sales (50% or more domestic GPU requirement). This will not benefit AMD but it hurts nVidia. China is a massive market. Predicting the short term performance of nVidia is going to come down to predicting Chinese politics. Anyone's guess is as good as mine. I believe Xi's power base has significantly eroded but I would never bet against a fascist. If people were brave, Xi would be dead by now. On the other hand, Chinese are more brave than most westerners seem to realize.
Call me skeptical, but I will wait and see. The Nvidia ecosystem is not going to be overlooked in favor of AMD without truly dominating performance and software superiority. I want AMD to succeed, but it has a long history of not being able to gain traction against Nvidia.
I suspect the nVidia ER that is imminent will be the highest earnings they have ever achieved or will achieve in future.
I understand. Successful investors haves a bias to believing situations will remain unchanged. This is a good bias to have. There is also a phenomenon of myopic bias toward a person's favorite products and companies. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess both you and Rolexian run nVidia GPUs. lol! I'm a contrary thinker, on this topic. I believe AMD has a strong chance (75%) to technically overtake nVidia in every respect, including AI, in the next year.
Haha, nope! 6950XT. Got it for $550 a long while ago when they were blowing them out before the 7000 series came out. Nvidia could not touch that deal price/perf at the time. I'm not a fan of dropping $1k+ on a GPU that I will barely game on due to kids/age. When you are so sure of yourself, I definitely pay attention, don't get me wrong. I will laser focus on AMD, and if I see what you are saying play out, my holdings will adjust accordingly. I just want to see a clear trend on the graphs before I act. We will see either way.
Seems like an egocentric bias combined with some Dunning-Kruger. Reminds me of that parody clip of Sherlock from Pete Holmes. We'll see! Last prediction didn't turn out so well, but hopefully it can happen this time, with both companies soaring...
Doing nothing is the correct course in nearly every case. The investment world is full of stories of world changing events that never happen. This forum is an exchange of ideas. I've shared mine. You've shared yours. Life is good.
My last prediction was uncanny accurate. I quoted both your shade throwing and my original post, so they are preserved. Declaring someone a failure is not how a mature adult conducts themselves. You aren't trying to make a point. You're trying to diminish the value of my post. If you have any ideas to share, I encourage you to do so.
Indeed. I like your analyses. Keep them coming. No such thing as too many data plots on which to build an opinion.
This is just gaslighting. Your prediction was completely inaccurate. Since February 2024 AMD had stagnated, and NVDA had soared. AMD is not "in the same ballpark as NVDA"; it's not any closer.
You are acting like a child. My predictions are there for the world to see and judge for themselves. I used to hang out on another site. Back in 2015 I opened a Tesla thread and started posting the goings on. To be fair, it was a bit of a cheer leading effort (much as the thread here). Tesla was absolutely despised by the hard right, back then. Suffice to say, every time I posted there was a guy who would declare the post wrong and me a moron. When I mentioned I bought the hell out of Tesla, he threatened to "kick my ass". I thought seriously about meeting him and giving him an opportunity but that would have probably landed me in jail. So, I moved along and found Stockaholics.net. I haven't been back to that site in years but I have every expectation that ankle biter is still working in a soul sucking career. Maybe that career is what made him so negative and angry. What's your story, rolexian? What drives you to contradict every post I write? What makes you so negative and angry? Maybe we can help you rise above this current level of conduct. I sincerely hope so. Life can be good or bad, depending on what you make of it.
Tom, constantly assigning insidious intentions to those who disagree with you, "deducing" someone's real life from internet posts, and acting like you are the center of the universe is the mark of immaturity and an infantile intellect...or it is the mark of being a troll. It seems like you want a safe space where you can preach all your opinions without pushback, where no one will question your narrative or perception of reality. I think it's best I just ignore you.
Did you not see me tactfully doubt Tom's predictions a bit ago? I have a great time bantering with him. We go back and forth on AMD sockets and PCI lanes. It's all good, even if we bicker sometimes. Tom has earned the right to say whatever he wants, and I can cross verify any or all claims/evidence he posts as I desire. His research and timing of his Tesla buys and sale are on the money. You do not have to agree with anything he says. Disagree and bring the receipts if you think he is off the mark. Just don't be a jerk.
i don’t come around here and post on this forum much nowadays anymore but i do lurk occasionally when i can. just thought to chime in here now (perhaps i should just keep my ass out of this and stay silent like most people on this site but i won’t on this occasion). i honestly feel like you absolutely hit the nail on the head, especially the part that marked in bold. basically that is precisely what i’ve been thinking as well but didn’t have the energy or guts to actually post it myself. thank you for saying that. sometimes things like this just need to be said no matter how controversial it may appear. no disrespect to tom or anyone on this site. i know you mean well and you love this site with all heart. i mean it clearly shows when you post at such crazy hours of the night sometimes too. tom is like always on this site! lol. even though this site is basically a ghost town now outside of wxyz’s thread. and no we can’t count those spammer threads like stock consultants and stocks on high alerts crap. kudos for trying to keep this site afloat. i think though the presence of a lack of anyone questioning your posts for anything is why you like posting here so much which is fine i guess. anywho… just my worthless 2c on this matter. nothing to see here carry on eh. back to lurk mode i go..
I would suggest that if you feel it's OK for rolexian to contradict my posts but it's not OK for me to push back on his, that is not a sign of a person of good character. Perhaps you can show me how I'm wrong about this? I've voiced my opinion. Others have voiced theirs. The ONLY time I've pushed back is when someone criticized me directly. This is objective fact. It can't be deleted, since I quoted the relevant posts and moved on. I understand you guys probably hold nVidia stock and you don't enjoy my outlook that is neither long term positive on Jensen or nVidia. If you were a bit sharper, you might notice I have not contradicted anyone's ideas or position. If you come at me, I may choose to come at you. I've been following contract prices for a bit. I don't use a lot of options, but I do occasionally. If an attractive contract comes up on nVidia, I may just pull the trigger. Right now, 2026 options still carry a high premium. Maybe you just don't realize, it doesn't have to be personal. It can be about investing.
