For what it's worth, I do not believe nVidia is the future. I'm not predicting they will go out of business tomorrow. I just think they've lost a whole lot of mind share in GPU and their dominance in AI is not as strong as it may seem. They are limited by TSMC capacity, AMD is ramping quickly, and Intel is just dumb enough to stop working on everything that matters and bet their future on AI. Everyone with an NPU will be Hell bent on global domination. nVidia used to dominate but I believe those days are over, based on nVidia internal corporate culture. Again, I'm not saying Intel will go all in on AI, just that I wouldn't put it past them.
Bold words indeed. I will give you that it was inevitable that competition would begin to really rally around taking down the king, but I am not convinced it is that case - at least not yet. I am seeing reports about 1-bit AI models on CPUs and using lesser hardware on DeepSeek-esque models. The moat is not as deep and wide as it once was, and I think the Rubin rollout and orders will be a big tell. I also think you are very right about execution and corporate culture, at least as it is right now. For all we know, Jensen might be raging and on a redemption rampage due to Blackwell and its woes. He's that kind of CEO. Again, Rubin is the key for me. As for my investing strategy, I will compare NVDA to VUG. As long as it outperforms VUG in one year increments, I will keep fully invested. If another company emerges as the next Nvidia, I'll jump on that, but until then, all it has to do is outperform VUG. Can't ask for more than that.
Quite a bit of Blackwell product (RTX 50X0 series) volume is well up in the channel. It just started this week. I wonder if this means AI demand has been satisfied.
It sounds like xAI's Colossus GPUs have been fulfilled. That's probably why there is more nVidia product in the channel.
Word from the channel is that nVidia midrange GPUs are not selling out at MSRP. Wild, if true. AMD GPUs are selling out above MSRP.
Too little VRAM, too much FU to gamers. Nvidia deserves the bad PR this generation. Blackwell has not been a good launch in either consumer or datacenter realms.
Wow, Nvidia playing dirty now: Aww, I'm just kidding, they always play dirty. That's why they are #1. But seriously though, Jensen is a big douche. Just look at the jackets!!! Still on the Mount Rushmore of CEOs, but a huge douche. Like Steve Jobs. Now go make me more money to be able to afford your GPUs, you big douche!
nVidia's bad will has definitely caused nVidia to lose massive mind share to AMD. AMD hasn't tried to compete on the high end of gaming GPUs, choosing to just leave that market for nVidia. I believe that has been a reasonably smart move on AMD's part. The new politics have increased the value to AMD to take a shot at the high end market. They are working on it. nVidia dominates the performance market with a significant performance lead but their silicone has little to no lead. To achieve what they have, nVidia silicone requires massive power. AMD doesn't have any sort of lead over nVidia, either. The fastest AMD GPU consume close to 500 Watts at their limit. To compete, they will either need to use multiple dies which are slightly tuned for efficiency. It won't take much of a performance hit knock their GPU back to 300 Watt peak, and that will open the door for a second die. Or, they could make a single, larger, die and see how fast they can go at 600W TDP. The biggest expense will be the new cooling solution for the 600 Watt part. Fortunately, nVidia has created an ecosystem of power supplies and mindshare for GPU power consumption at this level. I'm 75% confident AMD will attempt a 5090 class competitor. They are talking about it. The question is, how much damage has nVidia done to their franchise value in gaming? It may not be as bad as the YouTube crowd think. Intel has done heinous things to their customer base over the years and didn't lose mind share until only recently. I suspect nVidia can regain significant market share with Blackwell Ultra, later this year. They might regain nearly all of it. The issue I see is that nVidia has accomplished 4K, high refresh, gaming. While imperfect, the 5090 is close. They need Blackwell Ultra to perform at a similar level or slightly above, while consuming considerably less power. If they could achieve a 500 Watt, 4K, GPU with significant driver improvements, they could make it extremely difficult for AMD to gain further market share.
