Wow, Nvidia playing dirty now: Aww, I'm just kidding, they always play dirty. That's why they are #1. But seriously though, Jensen is a big douche. Just look at the jackets!!! Still on the Mount Rushmore of CEOs, but a huge douche. Like Steve Jobs. Now go make me more money to be able to afford your GPUs, you big douche!
nVidia's bad will has definitely caused nVidia to lose massive mind share to AMD. AMD hasn't tried to compete on the high end of gaming GPUs, choosing to just leave that market for nVidia. I believe that has been a reasonably smart move on AMD's part. The new politics have increased the value to AMD to take a shot at the high end market. They are working on it. nVidia dominates the performance market with a significant performance lead but their silicone has little to no lead. To achieve what they have, nVidia silicone requires massive power. AMD doesn't have any sort of lead over nVidia, either. The fastest AMD GPU consume close to 500 Watts at their limit. To compete, they will either need to use multiple dies which are slightly tuned for efficiency. It won't take much of a performance hit knock their GPU back to 300 Watt peak, and that will open the door for a second die. Or, they could make a single, larger, die and see how fast they can go at 600W TDP. The biggest expense will be the new cooling solution for the 600 Watt part. Fortunately, nVidia has created an ecosystem of power supplies and mindshare for GPU power consumption at this level. I'm 75% confident AMD will attempt a 5090 class competitor. They are talking about it. The question is, how much damage has nVidia done to their franchise value in gaming? It may not be as bad as the YouTube crowd think. Intel has done heinous things to their customer base over the years and didn't lose mind share until only recently. I suspect nVidia can regain significant market share with Blackwell Ultra, later this year. They might regain nearly all of it. The issue I see is that nVidia has accomplished 4K, high refresh, gaming. While imperfect, the 5090 is close. They need Blackwell Ultra to perform at a similar level or slightly above, while consuming considerably less power. If they could achieve a 500 Watt, 4K, GPU with significant driver improvements, they could make it extremely difficult for AMD to gain further market share.
Look out Intel and AMD, Nvidia is looking to take it all! NVIDIA's Arm-Based Gaming SoC to Debut in Alienware Laptops https://www.techpowerup.com/337574/nvidias-arm-based-gaming-soc-to-debut-in-alienware-laptops As an aside, x86 Windows days are numbered. Good riddance. Microsoft has turned Windows into an absolute mess. Linux is the future. Microsoft needs to own that fact.
The N1X is scheduled to be released toward the end of the year. I don't expect a lot from this project. As best I can tell, the work environment at nVidia is toxic. It was OK while money was flowing like water but it was never ideal. Toxicity is an impediment to the creation of bug free software. I hope the drivers, HAL, and microcode is relatively bug free but would not bet on it. If they can get it sorted, and I hope they can, the N1X seems to be targeted as an AI front end. Perhaps AI portable terminals and devices? The N1X is spec'ed to have 8 ARM cores and a whole bunch of GPU cores. It won't be a threat to AMD mainline CPUs.
Nobody sees it yet but nVidia is in one hell of a jam. This ship will sink more quickly than Intel but they can pretend to be on top of the world for another year or two. I watched an interview with an ex-nVidia employee and he said the environment is crazy toxic. Nobody wants to be there. For years, that wasn't an issue because they were all becoming multi-millionaires from the employee stock programs. So, they worked their butts off. Now, the money is starting to dry up and the number of people who will work like animals along with it. He is just one guy but there isn't a lot of forward looking good news coming out of nVidia. At the same time, Jensen Huang now sounds like more of a cult leader than a CEO. He says some far out stuff. It sounds like he lives in a thick bubble.
I've heard that the issue is that people are so rich, that they've lost the incentive to work. IIRC, the policy at NVDA is a 5-year look back on ESPP, which means the moment you join the company you are a millionaire. If people really thing NVDA is done, then go and short the stock. You'll become very rich!
Not people. Me. I don't short stock and don't plan to start. If you look back to February of last year in this thread, you will se me predicting AMD will come close to catching nVidia. That was based on AMD executing well while nVidia's work force being fat and unmotivated. Look at the push back I got. It wasn't just here. It was everywhere. Everyone knew nVidia was going to pull out an even wider lead. Now here we are. AMD is in the ball park. The tortoise has nearly caught up with the hare. Even in AI, AMD has a plausible chance to catch and pass. If AMD eats nVidia's AI lunch, nVidia is dead.
I suspect your contradictory nature is based on a distaste for what I am writing. The thrust of my point is, the speculative hoards are idiots. Jensen Huang seems to have partially lost his grip on reality. He may still be a good CEO but I have some concerns. The workforce is demotivated. Blackwell was a very weak refresh. Blackwell is more powerful than Hopper for AI scaling but not more efficient. Hardware gains were less than clock increases which came from process node stepping. The primary gains for the Blackwell platform came from the software side. Meanwhile, gamers have left nVidia in droves to run AMD cards. Now that nVidia has a bit more product in the channel, we can see some models are not selling out. This, even at relatively low product availability levels. AMD has gone from 8% to nearly 50% in the last couple of months. That's sales, not the installed base. Speculators who know nothing about the product or the company think nVidia is great. I'm trying to dive deeper than simply cheering for a winner. Varying opinions help us all. Why don't you set aside your contradictions and share your view on nVidia, where it is, and where it's going? It might be helpful to the rest of us.
No? I'm just pointing out a contradiction in your narrative. Now, instead of clarifying, you're attacking my motives. I find that generally, markets get things right. You've offered some reasons as to why the market might be overvaluing NVDA nad undervaluing AMD, but at the same time, as I pointed out, you made a bad call in February 2024 (and somehow warped that into being a good call!) I don't see any evidence of this besides an article on sales from a certain part of Germany. Seems like Nvidia still has 80-95% of the market. My predictions on chip stocks haven't been that great (although I'd argue that for AMD, ultimately it hasn't been that big of a deal), so I'm inclined to lean into the market on this one.
I called it exactly correct. There is no honest way to throw shade on those comments. Look at the post/edit date. They haven't been touched. I'm the first one on this web site to point out where I've been wrong, however, I simply wasn't wrong here. You clearly will contradict anything which does not support your point of view. nVidia currently has a lead. It's extremely minor in GPUs. It's major in AI. AMD is showing big strides in AI. AMD efficiency appears to be higher than nVidia but their platform doesn't scale as well, even with the huge advances they've shown in the last 60 days. nVidia exploded, rightly, on news of 0.5T federal investment in AI. That's today. Tomorrow is another story and what I've been talking about, all along. Time will determine the winner, as always. I expect that 18 months from now, if my hunch of AMD gaining parity with nVidia (or a slight edge) comes to pass, you will again pretend I was entirely wrong in this post. It's all here for people to judge as they see fit.
I didn't even look at the original posts; you just said, "If you look back to February of last year in this thread, you will se me predicting AMD will come close to catching nVidia". All I am saying is that since February 2024, Nvidia's stock has nearly tripled while AMD's has mostly stagnated/gone down. Maybe you meant that in terms of revenue, or purchases, or reputation, or technical superiority, AMD would be close to NVDA...but in terms of stock price, that clearly hasn't happened. Fundamentally, that's what this forum should be about: making good investments, no? Don't be such a snowflake, poisoning the well... What do you mean by this? As far as I've read, 80+% of the share of the GPU space belongs to nVidia. I can't tell if you are trolling, because here is what we do know: 18 months ago, you said that AMD would be close to NVDA. Looking at the stock price, I don't see how you could consider that prediction validated. You'd have been much better buying NVDA than AMD over that timespan. Yet here we are, and you are the one pretending that you "called it exactly correct".
I have never talked about short term price fluctuations. Well, that's not entirely accurate. I've talked about my view on how short term fluctuations are gambling and not knowable by anyone. I've never used the term "fool's errand" but I' using it right now. Every post I make is about the future and 2 to 10 year technology horizons. I'm on top of AMD, the processes they use, the processes they plan to use, how TSMC is coming along with current and future process nodes, and details of business performance including product supply and manufacturing inputs. I'm an investor. I have many times acknowledged that 98% of people who buy stocks see randomly fluctuating numbers and an opportunity to gamble on them. I look past the numbers and toward the companies themselves. That is the topic of every one of my posts. If you think the market is always right then it is absolutely vital to understand the business. Since you trust the market to understand the business, a business that is prospering will be reflected in the market price. If you believe the market makes mistakes, it is absolutely vital to understand the business. In this scenario, the goal is to find price anomalies where the company is under priced and purchase them below market. Some investors also try to capitalize on over priced equities. I do not. For the rest of the traders (98% of people), enjoy the randomly changing numbers. Please accept my best wishes for good luck and prosperity.
I'll just leave this here and people can judge my content for themselves. This post is not from April 2025. It's from April 2024. Before Zen 5. People were still talking about the new AM5 socket for Zen4 forcing motherboard upgrades and the high cost of DDR5. Intel was the top dog. nVidia absolutely dominated the GPU market with their 4000 series parts. nVidia was hitting their stride in AI with no one else even close. It shows how much can be understood about a company and the market it operates in, by following closely and rejecting noise.
I think your guys argument was simply a misunderstanding. @TomB16 mentioned AMD catching up to NVDA and said he called it, and Rolexian understood that to mean that Tom meant that should be reflected in the stock price, which he pointed out is obviously not true. I don't see any bad faith here, just a misunderstanding about what is being talked about by each person. Anyways, I'm personally invested in both, so I'm hedged for either's success and enjoying while they're both succeeding.
I think this might be what happened, but even then I'm not sure where he gets his numbers that AMD has caught up to NVDA in GPU sales.
It looks to me like AMD will be eating some, perhaps a small part, of nVidia's AI lunch by the end of this year. The AMD demos are extremely impressive. nVidia's PowerPoint stack is a bit lacking in detail or specifics, IMO. Still, AMD won't dominate nVidia this year or next in the AI space but I expect them to make significant inroads by late next year. AMD Helios is very impressive, a huge step forward, an important milestone for AMD, but not nVidia beating. When that day comes that AMD starts getting most of the smaller AI cluster wins, a lot of people will say they knew it would happen, all along. lol! I'm pretty confident the recent nVidia slump is related to China partially blocking GPU sales (50% or more domestic GPU requirement). This will not benefit AMD but it hurts nVidia. China is a massive market. Predicting the short term performance of nVidia is going to come down to predicting Chinese politics. Anyone's guess is as good as mine. I believe Xi's power base has significantly eroded but I would never bet against a fascist. If people were brave, Xi would be dead by now. On the other hand, Chinese are more brave than most westerners seem to realize.
Call me skeptical, but I will wait and see. The Nvidia ecosystem is not going to be overlooked in favor of AMD without truly dominating performance and software superiority. I want AMD to succeed, but it has a long history of not being able to gain traction against Nvidia.
I suspect the nVidia ER that is imminent will be the highest earnings they have ever achieved or will achieve in future.
I understand. Successful investors haves a bias to believing situations will remain unchanged. This is a good bias to have. There is also a phenomenon of myopic bias toward a person's favorite products and companies. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess both you and Rolexian run nVidia GPUs. lol! I'm a contrary thinker, on this topic. I believe AMD has a strong chance (75%) to technically overtake nVidia in every respect, including AI, in the next year.
