The Long Term Investor

Most important first......Seahawks to the Super Bowl. GO HAWKS. I give them about 80% odds of winning. A very dominant team.

 

The modern GOLD and SILVER rush continues. An amazing run up..... but....even though I have benefited greatly I do not see it as a long term investment vehicle. Probably a bubble.......but I dont see it popping any time soon. Probably a good short term speculative momentum play. We will see if this is a "new era" for gold and silver with mainstream investors.

Perhaps the COLLAPSE of actual journalism and media in finance and investing......will establish gold and silver as a mainstream longer term asset.

GOLD ..........$5092
SILVER.........$110.91

 

YES absolutely true.....but often still reported as a negative by the click hungry fear-mongers.

Trade War Fears Remain Unsubstantiated
Recent deals show trade becoming freer.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...entary/trade-war-fears-remain-unsubstantiated

 

Probably one of the largest IPO's in history will happen this year......SpaceX.

Space is on fire

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacem...ntent=RH144OP863&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

EARNINGS.......the red headed stepchild of the markets......constantly kicked to the curb.

Earnings vs. the Stock Market

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/earnings-vs-the-stock-market/

"Investors tend to focus on a wide variety of variables — the Fed, geopolitics, interest rates, inflation, economic growth, etc. — but corporate earnings are the biggest driver of stock market returns over the long run."

BUT....at the same time.

"There are plenty of times when earnings and the market are not in sync with one another."

 

Pretty much:

If you hate inflation, then you'll love stocks

https://www.tker.co/p/stocks-are-hedge-against-inflation

"Publicly traded companies are not charities. Their approach to pricing — whether it’s lowering them or raising them — is about maximizing earnings. Sometimes that means raising prices on the goods and services they sell to you."

 

As to GDP......economic data that actually matters.

Data Summary: Q3 Real GDP; October-November Personal Income/Spending

https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/01/2836_data_summary_01-22-2026.pdf

"Revised and more complete source data show real GDP grew at an
annual rate of 4.4 percent in Q3 2025, matching our above-consensus
forecast and up slightly from the initial estimate of 4.3 percent growth."

 

ALL....the big averages UP in a good start to the day and the week. Here is the story....so far.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq inch higher to kick off big week of Big Tech earnings, Fed meeting

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-big-tech-earnings-fed-meeting-110341646.html

WHATEVER.

 

We dodged the ice storm here. It was raining heavily just before the storm got here.....but all we got was ground ice as a result of sleet and icy snow. We have about an inch of ice snow but the trees and plants are free of ice.

So far we are doing fine and the temperatures should go above freezing today and than moderate after today.

 

I am NOT pushing this......since I dont consider gold an investment. But for those thinking about it.

How to invest in gold in 4 steps

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/how-to-invest-in-gold-181632105.html

A pretty good, comprehensive, basic article. LOTS of information here.

 

YES.....more economic news.....that is probably irrelevant to long term investors.

US core capital goods orders beat expectations in November

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-core-capital-goods-orders-134510267.html

At least like MOST of the data over the past 6-12 months....this shows that all the constant fear-mongering of the economy is....BS.

 

NVDA news of the day:

Nvidia set to supplant Apple as TSMC’s top customer, signaling chip industry’s ‘changing dynamic’

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/nvidia-set-to-supplant-apple-as-tsmcs-largest-customer.html

AND

CoreWeave stock surges amid fresh $2 billion investment from Nvidia

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/core...billion-investment-from-nvidia-143717366.html

 

That is about it so far today....as we wait for big tech earnings later this week.

I start the day with five stocks GREEN. Unfortunately my two red are....NVDA and PLTR.

Lets see where we are at day end. Actually what really matters.....lets see where we are in about......FIVE YEARS.

 

A bit of short term data on my recent big winners

NVDA:

1 day........(-0.31%)
5 day........+2.87%
1 month....(-1.81%)
6 month....+5.85%
1 year........+57.99%
YTD...........(-0.93%)

PLTR:

1 day..........(-0.31%)
5 day..........+1.06%
1 month......(-10.40%)
6 month.......+7.09%
1 year..........+124.58%
YTD..............+0.93%

 

I have not even looked yet.....but...I like this.

BofA says the chip reshuffle makes Nvidia a 'compelling' value play

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa...nvidia-a-compelling-value-play-203403961.html

"Arya argues that these cloud chip giants are trading at a "notably compelling valuation backdrop" of just 0.5x their price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio. For an industry often accused of being in a valuation bubble, the math suggests that the biggest names in the AI revolution are actually trading at a steep discount relative to their growth."

This year will be a good test for this thesis. Will it matter......or will it be a situation of.......if a tree falls in the woods and no one is there, does it make a sound? In this case.....if GREAT EARNINGS are ignored......do they matter.....and.....did they actually happen?.

 

I have still not even looked yet.....but here is the close today.

S&P 500 closes higher as Meta and Apple rise ahead of earnings reports

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

I see that we have not heard from oldmanram after his Seahawk win yesterday.

He is probably caught up in a multi-day, post game party situation, something like......THE HANGOVER. He will straggle in a few days from now with a massive Seahawk tattoo on his face, a couple of missing teeth, a couple of chickens,......and....no memory of anything.

 

I made some money today so I cant complain.....a medium.....small gain. I lagged the SP500 today by 0.33% and saw my gains and green stocks FADE as the day progressed.

I ended with four stocks red....AMZN, NVDA, PLTR, and COST. So my medium-small gain came from only three stocks.....AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.

As is often the case....it is all about the portfolio as a whole.

BUT....every little bit helps in the end....so I will take it and move on.