Sold all positions the dividend is not worth the LT growth when the value of SP keeps dropping. GL to all.
This has the worst luck. It was primed to go up to 13+ after great ER. Then this tax bill news bull hit comes out & kills the momentum.
I held Ford for a long term hold but while I thought I had bought at lows it did drop down to 11 and under so I was showing red in that holding for a long time while collecting the dividends. Here it worked it's way back up to my cost basis so I sold it. Now I am waiting to see if it drops back to 11 where I will consider going back in for long term. If not, well I'll move on. I don't usually do long term that way but I just got tired of seeing Ford staying below my cost basis for that long.
At the rate she's dropping, F is gonna force some decisions soonish re: picking up some shares at the 10.4 to 10.6 range anticipating a bounce into which one could sell the covered calls. @ 10.2 the decision gets made for me.
This is getting awfully tempting. Oversold, and no more surprises with the Earnings and dividends out of the way for awhile...
Taking a shot here. Stop set at $10.40, Target of $13 (no problem holding for awhile). Risk/Reward ratio of 8.29.
It's a great price and over time it'll pay for itself. I own a lot of F from over the years, all of which have really good total returns thanks to that divvy. That said, I'm still going to wait before grabbing some more!
If what he says is true than it will impact the whole market since the auto industry is such a large portion of the economy. Lease penetration rates have surged for the Big Three. For Ford in 2009 it was 5.4% and in 2016 it was 23.8%. For the same period GM went from 2.1% to 27.8% and FCA from 3.0% to 23.5%. For the industry as whole including Honda, Toyota, Hyundiai/Kia, BMW, and Mercedes the rates went from 13.0% to 30.1%. Now there are millions of vehicles coming off lease into the wholesale/used car market. On top of that problem is that 20% of new car loan originations are subprime (credit score < 620). 33% of loans are sub-660-originators; no help there. Prior to the global financial crisis, subprime 90-plus-day auto-loan delinquencies climbed to 10% and then dropped after the crisis to about 6% after the banks, credit unions, and finance companies tightened requirments. Currently subprime delinquencies are at 9.7%...uh oh. The Boomers are retiring and aging...this age group does not buy stuff. Average auto sales growth was 2.5% for the past 3 years (half the growth rate of the S&P500). EBITDA growth (cash flow) grew just 6%, also much slower than overall market. But they grew earnings by using cheap money for share buy-back programs and adding debt to the balance sheet. Reduce share count > Earnings/share go up. But now the big guys are running into trouble with that debt, ergo the debt rating decline for Ford a week ago or so.
Appears like a trading range boundary may have been established between Tuesday's $10.19 low and Wednesdays reaction high at $11.04.
