So this thread is mostly going to be "YOLOing". I only got a small tax refund this year and wanted to see if I could turn it into anything. I got about $315 back this year with the new tax reform. I'm only looking at ETFs - I try to stay away from individual stocks and follow the larger market moves. My strategy tries to find a 1-4 day window where price will move a weekly option upwards of 100%. I'm only looking for 100%, but if they gap up - even more of a benefit. You will see that I did chicken out on some JNUG plays that if I would've just stayed would've netted me a higher return. Here is my track record starting on March 28th: March 28th bought 9 XLI $75 4/5 calls @ .34 and sold 9 on April 1st @ .93 ($306 to $837) April 3rd bought 24 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .35 and sold 24 April 5th @ .41 ($840 to $984) April 5th re-bought 17 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .57 and sold 17 April 8th @ .79 ($969 to $1,343) April 8th re-bought 17 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .79 and sold 17 April 9th @ .94 ($1,343 to $1,598) next was a split of the $1,598 between GLD and JNUG puts April 11th bought 74 JNUG $8.5 puts @ .10 and sold 74 April 15th @ .20 ($740 to $1,480) April 11th bought 34 GLD $121 puts @ .25 and sold 34 April 16th @ .80 ($850 to $2,720) Total as of 4/18/19 - $4,242.92 I normally buy my options right at the close, so I will try and update as soon as possible. I will also post up some charts to show what I'm looking at. I focus mostly on SPY/QQQ/JNUG/GLD - I'm still testing Nat Gas/Oil/Volatility.
Here is a chart of SPXS - I look at the 3x ETF to trade the normal ETF - SPXL/SPXS to trade SPY TQQQ/SQQQ for QQQ, etc... You can see where there are confirming signals and the resultant move down:
Here is an example with UGLD - I only circled where it is coming down, but can obviously be traded the other way with crosses going the other way.
Got to take a good look at my list of stocks on this day off. I'm focusing on TMF, which looks have had a nice pullback in an uptrend. If this continues to rise early next week I will be buying some TLT calls.
Just bought 85 TLT 5/3 124 CALLS @ .25 - Went a little further than a week on this one since bonds tend to move a little more slowly. Plus it is only half a position. Edit: Here is my analysis.
Well the calls are just back to my breakeven of .25 - but I feel better that TMF just signaled long - TMV was the one that signaled short a couple days ago. So we might see bonds up over the next week or so. Here's TMF - you can compare to the inverse TMV from my post above. I added a little Guppy MA as well on this one.
Hey everyone, sorry for the late update. Busy doing yard work on this beautiful spring day. TLT had a good day today and missed my 100% up by .01, but if I would've been more patient, I could've gotten in around .21 instead of .25. So I am still holding tonight with a sell order at .50 for tomorrow. XLU is my new addition right at the close. I picked up 130 5/3 58.5 CALLS @ .16.
Updated chart on TMF - good follow through today picking up a confirmation signal. Hopefully we gap up tomorrow and I can sell for a little more than .50.
Looks like TLT is going to open lower - I will have my stop loss at breakeven on the TLT CALLS @ .25.
I sold both my TLT and XLU options this morning. Sold 85 TLT $124 5/3 CALLS @ .53 Sold 130 XLU $58.5 5/3 CALLS @ .32
I do not currently have a play - though I am watching very closely EEM and XOP. Not sure if they are going to trigger today or early next week.
If I were being aggressive I would have bought XOP puts on Friday at the close - but will keep an eye on it if it doesn't gap down on Monday. EEM is right on the edge of signaling a long trigger.
Looks that way - I was looking at a more aggressive setup. XOP does look to be in an uptrend and in a pullback. I will wait and see on this one. Buying a put on this would be like picking pennies up in front of a train. Thanks for the heads up!