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AverageJoe's Options Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by AverageJoesTrades, Apr 18, 2019.

  1. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    So this thread is mostly going to be "YOLOing". I only got a small tax refund this year and wanted to see if I could turn it into anything. I got about $315 back this year with the new tax reform. I'm only looking at ETFs - I try to stay away from individual stocks and follow the larger market moves. My strategy tries to find a 1-4 day window where price will move a weekly option upwards of 100%. I'm only looking for 100%, but if they gap up - even more of a benefit. You will see that I did chicken out on some JNUG plays that if I would've just stayed would've netted me a higher return.

    Here is my track record starting on March 28th:

    March 28th bought 9 XLI $75 4/5 calls @ .34 and sold 9 on April 1st @ .93 ($306 to $837)
    April 3rd bought 24 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .35 and sold 24 April 5th @ .41 ($840 to $984)
    April 5th re-bought 17 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .57 and sold 17 April 8th @ .79 ($969 to $1,343)
    April 8th re-bought 17 JNUG $9.5 calls @ .79 and sold 17 April 9th @ .94 ($1,343 to $1,598)
    next was a split of the $1,598 between GLD and JNUG puts
    April 11th bought 74 JNUG $8.5 puts @ .10 and sold 74 April 15th @ .20 ($740 to $1,480)
    April 11th bought 34 GLD $121 puts @ .25 and sold 34 April 16th @ .80 ($850 to $2,720)

    Total as of 4/18/19 - $4,242.92

    I normally buy my options right at the close, so I will try and update as soon as possible. I will also post up some charts to show what I'm looking at. I focus mostly on SPY/QQQ/JNUG/GLD - I'm still testing Nat Gas/Oil/Volatility. IMG_3860.PNG IMG_3863.PNG IMG_3862.PNG IMG_3861.PNG
     
  2. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    good job!
     
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  3. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Here is a chart of SPXS - I look at the 3x ETF to trade the normal ETF - SPXL/SPXS to trade SPY TQQQ/SQQQ for QQQ, etc...

    You can see where there are confirming signals and the resultant move down:

    SPXS.png
     
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  4. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Here is an example with UGLD - I only circled where it is coming down, but can obviously be traded the other way with crosses going the other way.
    UGLD.png
     
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  5. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    I will be watching XLV over the next week or so - looking extremely oversold.
     
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  6. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Got to take a good look at my list of stocks on this day off. I'm focusing on TMF, which looks have had a nice pullback in an uptrend. If this continues to rise early next week I will be buying some TLT calls.
     
  7. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    XBI might be another ETF that could cross back up this week from oversold territory.
     
  8. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Just bought 85 TLT 5/3 124 CALLS @ .25 - Went a little further than a week on this one since bonds tend to move a little more slowly. Plus it is only half a position.

    Edit: Here is my analysis.
    TMV.png
     
    #8 AverageJoesTrades, Apr 22, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
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  9. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    XLU hitting my watchlist:

    Stable: XLU Long, XBI Long
    Racing: TLT Long 1/2 position
     
  10. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    XBI off the table for now

    Stable: XLU Long
    Racing: TLT Long 1/2 position 5/3 124$ CALLS @ .25
     
  11. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Well the calls are just back to my breakeven of .25 - but I feel better that TMF just signaled long - TMV was the one that signaled short a couple days ago. So we might see bonds up over the next week or so. Here's TMF - you can compare to the inverse TMV from my post above. I added a little Guppy MA as well on this one.
    TMF.png
     
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  12. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Hey everyone, sorry for the late update. Busy doing yard work on this beautiful spring day.

    TLT had a good day today and missed my 100% up by .01, but if I would've been more patient, I could've gotten in around .21 instead of .25. So I am still holding tonight with a sell order at .50 for tomorrow.

    XLU is my new addition right at the close. I picked up 130 5/3 58.5 CALLS @ .16.
    XLU.png
     
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  13. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Updated Account
    IMG_3885.PNG IMG_3886.PNG
     
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  14. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Updated chart on TMF - good follow through today picking up a confirmation signal. Hopefully we gap up tomorrow and I can sell for a little more than .50.
    TMF.png
     
  15. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Looks like TLT is going to open lower - I will have my stop loss at breakeven on the TLT CALLS @ .25.
     
  16. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    I sold both my TLT and XLU options this morning.

    Sold 85 TLT $124 5/3 CALLS @ .53
    Sold 130 XLU $58.5 5/3 CALLS @ .32

    IMG_3889.PNG IMG_3887.PNG IMG_3888.PNG
     
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  17. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    I do not currently have a play - though I am watching very closely EEM and XOP. Not sure if they are going to trigger today or early next week.
     
  18. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    If I were being aggressive I would have bought XOP puts on Friday at the close - but will keep an eye on it if it doesn't gap down on Monday. EEM is right on the edge of signaling a long trigger.
     
  19. hitman

    hitman Active Member

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    Careful now XOP is about to breakout
     
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  20. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Looks that way - I was looking at a more aggressive setup. XOP does look to be in an uptrend and in a pullback. I will wait and see on this one.

    Buying a put on this would be like picking pennies up in front of a train.

    Thanks for the heads up!
     

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