Cathie Wood And The ARK funds Watch Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by T0rm3nted, Feb 18, 2021.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah well, Cathie Wood and the ARKs and have been getting a lot of media attention lately which is hard to ignore, so I've been watching them and then when I check in here, what do I see? A new thread dedicated to them...hmmm. Either the trade and perhaps the whole stock market is nearing a top or Cathie is the Peter Lynch of our time. Either way a welcomed thread!
     
    #21 Onepoint272, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
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  2. WHEELOFFORTUNE

    WHEELOFFORTUNE New Member

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    What do you guys think of Takeda Pharmaceuticals? Catherine Wood has been selling off some of her Tesla shares to buy more of it and it has a 4.85% divy. I took a position yesterday. It also made me wonder if Pzifer's now a good buy with 4.5% divy at $34.56 down from $41 on Dec 12 around the time when they released their 95%+ effective covid vaccine. Not sure why it's on a downward trend with the vaccine. I haven't invested in Pharmaceuticals for a couple years now after having shares in one that tanked, but with all the instability I'm feeling from other sectors, I'm giving that sector another go.
     
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  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/18/21)

    ARKG

    VEEV +40,818 shares (.1036% of ETF)
    SGFY +44,305 shares (.0135% of ETF)
    MASS +6,191 shares (.0032% of ETF)
    ABBV +186,105 shares (.1605% of ETF)

    VCYT -6,690 shares (.0039% of ETF)
    TWST -17,850 shares (.0220% of ETF)
    TMO -34,800 shares (.1392% of ETF)
    CDNA -21,829 shares (.0148% of ETF)
    PACB -224,750 (.0792% of ETF)

    ARKK
    FATE +34,007 (.0127%)
    EXAS +75,282 (.0383%)
    BEAM +59,522 (.0225%)
    IRDM +160,022 (.0276%)
    +++++++PLTR +5,274,700 (.5038%)++++++++
    TXG +77,728 (.0528%)
    NTDOY +43,100 (.0128%)

    TCEHY -285,101 (.0996%)
    TWLO -93,231 (.1521%)
    SPLK -56,751 (.0345%)
    SSYS -10 (.0000%)

    ARKQ
    TDY +1,296 (.0130%)
    EXPC +175,644 (.0752%)
    KMTUY +20,019 (.0152%)

    BYDDY -14,356 (.0231%)
    AVAV -400 (.0013%)

    ARKW
    TCEHY -104,172 (.1073%)
    PSTG -153,739 (.0454%)
    Most notable changes I noticed were adding over 5M PLTR shares which equates to 0.5% portfolio in ARKK. Pretty big buy and a new ticker in the ARKK ETF. Nothing else was over a .2% change so I won't mention them as notable. No new tickers added besides PLTR to ARKK, and none completely removed.
     
  4. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I don't really follow her on the bigger cap stocks such as NVS or TAK, feel like it is just some of her more defensive positions just in case we have some kind of big slump in the market. Earlier this week I bought SGFY and ACIC since she recently added positions though, these smaller and more unknown plays are the ones that I like to follow ;) Good luck with your TAK position :) As for PFE, my guess is that it is already a very big company, some revenue from the vaccine doesn't hurt for sure but it doesn't make that much of a difference for a giant like PFE
     
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  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    One of the ARK stocks I own is Raven Industries, RAVN.. They've been around for a long time, going back to the 1960s at least. They are credited as the inventor of the modern hot air balloon, but recently have been successfully breaking new ground into precision agriculture. A point and figure count on the previous accumulation gives a target of $75.

    upload_2021-2-20_9-23-6.png
     
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  6. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    I just saw this video about ARK Invest and some risks - might be interesting to watch.

     
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  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/19/21)

    ARKF

    INTU +24,857 (.2%)
    PYPL +33,931 (.2%)


    ARKG

    VEEV +70,100 (.17%)
    CMLF +139,063 (.03%)
    EXAS +100,830 (.12%)
    SGFY +2,500 (.00%)

    VCYT -67,700 (.04%)
    PACB -73,715 (.03%)
    TWST -31,666 (.04%)

    CDNA -105,632 (.07%)

    ARKK
    TSLA +72,120 (.2%)
    U +195,801 (.08%)
    BEAM +17,952 (.01%)
    TXG +26,905 (.02%)
    NTDOY +40,700 (.01%)

    ONVO -31,711 (.00%)
    MTLS -29,835 (.01%)
    SPLK -82,727 (.05%)

    ARKQ
    VUZI +292,091 (.12%)
    EXPC +118,153 (.05%)
    TDY +5,900 (.06%)
    RAVN +5,911 (.01%)
    KMTUY +47,634 (.04%)

    HON -59,313 (.29%)
    BYDDY -14,356 (.0231%)
    AVAV -25,956 (.08%)

    ARKW
    TTD +28,123 (.26%)
    API -111,325 (.11%)
    First things that come to mind. Cathie clearly still bullish on TSLA, her largest holding. Added another .2% to her already highest percentage stock. HON was just sold off from ARKQ and that was like 75-80% of the position they just dropped. Guessing that means they're not very bullish on Honeywell now. This was also their biggest portfolio % change of the entire day. Also, since @Onepoint272 just mentioned it above, Cathie added to her RAVN position yesterday in the ARKQ fund.
     
    #27 T0rm3nted, Feb 20, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2021
  8. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/19/21)

    ARKF

    DSYSJ +179,423 (.0366%)
    FB +74,400 (.4055%)
    OPEN +326,867 (.2%)

    SPLK -249,866 (.8445%)

    ARKG

    SURF +122,000 (.0094%)
    RPTX +2,781 (.0008%)
    REGN +28,194 (.1084%)
    EXAS +194,339 (.00%)
    CMLF +501,196 (.0939%)
    SGFY +3,445 (.0011%)

    TWST -30,781 (.04%)
    SDGR -212,257 (.2015%)
    CDNA -2,244 (.0016%)


    ARKK
    U +160,300 (.0717%)
    TXG +61,259 (.0421%)
    +++++TWTR +973,900 (.2620%)+++++
    TSLA +183,707 (.5178%)
    SPOT +89,400 (.1263%)
    PYPL +297,491 (.3123%)

    BEAM+500 (.0002%)
    FATE +34,505 (.0132%)
    ROKU -144,800 (.2492%)
    BIDU -201,412 (.2548%)
    TSM -299,700 (.1510%)
    MTLS -830 (.0002%)

    TCEHY -181,700 (.0619%)
    SSYS -8,321 (.0014%)
    SQ -148,118 (.1504%)

    ARKQ
    TSLA +27,350 (.5055%)
    RAVN +473 (.0005%)
    EXPC +166,488 (.0709%)

    -----HON -13,695 (.29%)-----
    AVAV -5,560 (.0173%)
    ANSS -10,423 (.0993%)

    ARKW
    TSLA +62,048 (.5090%)
    CRM -56,858 (.1518%)
    HUBS -25,665 (.1523%)
    SE -22,648 (.0637%)

    Typing in thoughts as I update this from now on.
    • Over half of the SPLK position was dumped in the ARKF fund.
    • CMLF in the ARKG fund she increased her stake by >25%.
    • A new position - TWTR was added to the ARKK fund.
    • Huge adds of TSLA in all 3 funds she holds it (ARKK, ARKW, ARKQ). It's at minimum top 4 holdings in all 3 of those funds.
    • She continues to add PYPL it seems like every day. Added another 10% to ARKK yesterday.
    • HON completely sold out of ARKQ now. An update or two ago I mentioned she sold like 80%. Got rid of the rest yesterday.
    • >10% of her CRM position in ARKW was dropped, something to keep an eye on.
    • >10% of her HUBS position in ARKW was dropped, something to keep an eye on.
     
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  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/23/21)

    ARKF

    DSYSJ +388,119 (.0821%)
    FB +70,200 (.3885%)
    OPEN +348,500 (.2045%)

    SPLK -179,580 (.5712%)

    ARKG

    MASS +56,296 (.0281%)
    SGFY +512,240 (.1510%)
    CMLF +444,200 (.0751%)
    BFLY +583,900 (.1%)
    ACCD +119,035 (.0466%)
    RPTX +9,016 (.0024%)

    TMO -37,535 (.1467%)
    HIMS -333,656 (.0474%)
    GOOGL -5,500 (.0960%)


    ARKK
    U +346,800 (.1486%)
    TXG +66,786 (.0445%)
    TWTR +911,113 (.2427%)
    TSLA +177,214 (.4603%)
    SPOT +123,311 (.1581%)
    FATE +154,781 (.0556%)

    BEAM +279,494 (.1032%)
    ROKU -265,524 (.4210%)
    Z -149,520 (.0948%)
    TSM -974,867 (.4888%)
    SE -148,622 (.1430%)

    TCEHY -541,747 (.1880%)

    ARKQ
    TSLA +11,893 (.2016%)
    RAVN +39,099 (.0391%)
    EXPC +401,949 (.1536%)
    VUZI +199,799 (.0897%)

    AMZN -1,817 (.1462%)
    AAPL -128,307 (.4023%)

    ARKW
    TSLA +51,411 (.3914%)
    SPOT +40,360 (.1502%)
    U +121,100 (.1505%)

    CRM -268,021 (.7065%)

    Highlights:
    • Exact same moves in the ARKF fund from the previous day. All 3 buys of same companies, and same sell. SPLK position is almost completely closed. I'd expect she closes it today.
    • SGFY position basically doubled in ARKG
    • HIMS position cut into 1/3rd in ARKG. My guess is this will be dumped completely today or tomorrow.
    • Cathie added TWTR 2 days ago, and doubled position yesterday.
    • More big adds of TSLA in all 3 funds again.
    • VUZI position doubled in ARKQ
    • AAPL position nearly halved in ARKQ
    • She cut her position in CRM by basically 75% more after selling a lot the previous day as well. I'm guessing this will be closed out completely today in ARKW.
     
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  10. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    One of my daily reads. Our favorite mod is da bomb. :popcorn::booyah:
     
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  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/24/21)

    ARKF

    DSYSJ +311,846 (.0667%)
    FB +27,456 (.1510%)
    OPEN +120,800 (.0735%)
    SQ +97,051 (.4928%)

    VRSK -135,953 (.4859%)
    TCEHY -70,287 (.1322%)
    LSPD -130,200 (.2028%)


    ARKG

    MASS +9,223 (.0048%)
    SGFY +295,500 (.0939%)
    CMLF +187,400 (.0333%)
    ACCD +62,178 (.0249%)
    RPTX +13,842 (.0040%)

    TWST -104,449 (.1278%)
    -----HIMS -168,557 (.0240%)-----
    CDNA -99,611 (.0692%)


    ARKK
    TXG +15,458 (.0109%)
    SQ +534,390 (.5076%)

    BEAM +190,834 (.0724%)
    SNAP -1,205,432 (.3333%)
    TCEHY -221,971 (.0776%)

    ARKQ
    WKHS +660,500 (.2456%)
    RAVN +404 (.0004%)
    EXPC +94,994 (.0395%)
    VUZI +307,163 (.1530%)
    +++++AONE +208,917 (.0640%)+++++

    FLIR -23,918 (.0333%)
    DE -17,463 (.1527%)
    CAT -25,764 (.1453%)

    ARKW
    SQ +165,829 (.4557%)
    SNAP -310,043 (.2449%)

    Highlights:
    • Cathie keeps adding on DSY, FB, and OPEN in ARKF.
    • VRSK was all but closed in ARKF and LSPD was cut by 25%. Both on their way out the door.
    • I was right and HIMS was completely dropped from ARKG yesterday.
    • Cathie adding to another of her top holdings SQ in ARKF, ARKK, and ARKW. Very sizeable adds.
    • SNAP position halved in ARKK. Probably on it's way out the door.
    • WKHS added shares are completely baffling to me. But she increased her position by 25%. Totally confused by this.
    • VUZI position basically doubled in ARKQ
    • New position in AONE started in ARKQ
     
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  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Yesterday's changes (02/25/21)

    ARKF

    DSYSJ +71,324 (.0161%)
    9923HK +708,000 (.1781%) (Yeahka Ltd)
    OPEN +307,000 (.2021%)
    SQ +38,002 (.1996%)
    TDOC +39,654 (.2038%)

    PYPL +86,542 (.5096%)
    SI +44,913 (.1322%)
    SCHW -246,711 (.3533%)
    TCEHY -192,478 (.3811%)
    LSPD -59,324 (.0958%)
    AMZN -7,256 (.5071%)

    GWRE -19,579 (.0502%)

    ARKG

    MASS +57,853 (.0306%)
    SGFY +184,100 (.0576%)
    CMLF +369,000 (.0682%)
    ACCD +92,800 (.0390%)
    RPTX +20,646 (.0061%)
    ADPT +183,168 (.949%)

    TWST -41,202 (.0533%)
    CDNA -301,100 (.2253%)

    ARKK
    TXG +52,725 (.0390%)
    BIDU +299,835 (.3734%)

    BEAM +298,495 (.1165%)
    EXAS +25,439 (.0140%)

    TWTR +1,268,926 (.4133%)
    TDOC +393,495 (.3841%)
    SNAP -991,159 (.2833%)
    SE -103,585 (.1035%)
    PINS -885,520 (.3067%)

    TSM -378,699 (.2041%)
    ROKU -238,061 (.3962%)
    REGN -33,376 (.0642%)
    NVS -14,692 (.0054%)

    ARKQ
    KTOS +95,578 (.0744%)
    RAVN +28,584 (.0311%)
    EXPC +66,000 (.0277%)
    VUZI +197,000 (.1028%)
    TER +54,700 (.1874%)
    TRMB +67,500 (.1350%)

    JD +99,748 (.2505%)
    BIDU +63,723 (.5109%)
    ACIC +410,320 (.1387%)
    FLIR -158,502 (.2289%)
    GOOG -2,800 (.1531%)
    XLNX -59,129 (.2013%)
    TSM -57,786 (.1973%)

    ADSK -26,052 (.2004%)
    AMZN -2,480 (.2038%)
    SNPS -29,871 (.1976%)
    ROK -15,019 (.0986%)

    ARKW

    SQ +62,647 (.1761%)
    TSLA +23,966 (.2047%)
    TDOC +151,423 (.4343%)
    SPOT +30,850 (.1174%)
    SKLZ +189,969 (.0700%)
    SHOP +7,775 (.1196%)
    BIDU +141,918 (.5139%)
    TWTR +399,822 (.3836%)

    SE -71,559 (.2104%)
    SNAP -310,043 (.2449%)
    CRM -100,695 (.2889%)
    AAPL -116,653 (.1754%)
    BABA -377,406 (1.1185%)

    Highlights:
    • HUGE SALE of BABA. Definitely largest % of an ETF change I've seen since I started watching these closely. And it's not even close. Her position is now basically closed.
    • Cathie again keeps adding on DSY and OPEN in ARKF.
    • Another big add of PYPL (2nd top holding already in ARKF)
    • Nothing notable in ARKG. Just some rebalancing.
    • Another big buy of TWTR in ARKK and ARKW. Increased her position by 50%.
    • I said SNAP was on it's way out the door in ARKK. She just sold 90% of the already sold-off position. Has only 100k shares left. This will be gone today I'm sure.
    • PINS position was less than halved in ARKK. This is on it's way out the door too. Possibly today.
    • Cathie sold about 25% of ROKU in ARKK. I've seen a few of this move the last couple weeks.
    • Pretty big BIDU, SQ, and TDOC buy in multiple funds.
    • ACIC position >50% increase in ARKQ.
    • VUZI position basically doubled in ARKQ
    • ADSK, FLIR, and AMZN all sold about a quarter of their positions in ARKQ.
    • CRM is basically closed in ARKW. She only has 6k shares left.
    Lots of moves today, hopefully I condensed the summary enough.
     
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  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Today's changes (02/26/21)

    ARKF

    SHOP +8,625 (.2499%)
    SI +25,545 (.0733%)

    ARKG
    MASS +52,194 (.0264%)
    SGFY +53,871 (.0267%)
    TDOC +236,890 (.4865%)
    ACCD +39,710 (.0162%)
    RPTX +6,148 (.0018%)
    ADPT +31,638 (.0163%)

    ONEM +240,000 (.1094%)
    BLI +278,500 (.1638%)

    TWST -51,404 (.0666%)
    CDNA -101,084 (.0756%)
    TMO -46,642 (.1982%)
    RHHBY -54,800 (.0212%)
    GOOGL -41,202 (.1996%)


    ARKK
    SHOP +44,983 (.2456%)
    BIDU +96,126 (.1199%)

    BEAM +94,601 (.0358%)
    EXAS +81,936 (.0456%)
    TWTR +352,259 (.1158%)

    TDOC +236,520 (.2223%)
    SQ +217,825 (.2114%)
    PLTR +2,497,800 (.2531%)
    TXG +31,716 (.0235%)

    SNAP -63,434 (.0175%)
    SNPS -48,511 (.0509%)
    PINS -681,282 (.2288%)
    TSM -938,701 (.5003%)

    ROKU -143,308 (.2390%)
    REGN -59,098 (.1131%)
    NVS -223,902 (.0822%)
    ICE -108,600 (.0513%)


    Highlights:
    • Nothing significant in ARKF
    • Close to half the GOOG position sold in ARKG
    • Another big buy of TWTR in ARKK and ARKW. Increased her position by 50%.
    • Increased her PLTR position by nearly 50% in ARKK and ARKW
    • I said SNAP was on it's way out the door in ARKK. She just sold 90% of the already sold-off position. Has only 100k shares left. This will be gone today I'm sure. (left this comment in here. She sold another 63k. Only 36k left)
    • PINS position was less than halved in ARKK. This is on it's way out the door too. Possibly today. (left this comment in here from the previous update. Now down to 27k shares)
    • TSM cut by 50% in ARKK
    Was working on this while playing some games and drinking tonight. I'll finish ARKQ and ARKW tomorrow or sometime this weekend. Too drunk right now
     
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  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS POST

    Today's changes (02/26/21)

    ARKF

    SHOP +8,625 (.2499%)
    SI +25,545 (.0733%)

    ARKG
    MASS +52,194 (.0264%)
    SGFY +53,871 (.0267%)
    TDOC +236,890 (.4865%)
    ACCD +39,710 (.0162%)
    RPTX +6,148 (.0018%)
    ADPT +31,638 (.0163%)

    ONEM +240,000 (.1094%)
    BLI +278,500 (.1638%)

    TWST -51,404 (.0666%)
    CDNA -101,084 (.0756%)
    TMO -46,642 (.1982%)
    RHHBY -54,800 (.0212%)
    GOOGL -41,202 (.1996%)


    ARKK
    SHOP +44,983 (.2456%)
    BIDU +96,126 (.1199%)

    BEAM +94,601 (.0358%)
    EXAS +81,936 (.0456%)
    TWTR +352,259 (.1158%)

    TDOC +236,520 (.2223%)
    SQ +217,825 (.2114%)
    PLTR +2,497,800 (.2531%)
    TXG +31,716 (.0235%)

    SNAP -63,434 (.0175%)
    SNPS -48,511 (.0509%)
    PINS -681,282 (.2288%)
    TSM -938,701 (.5003%)

    ROKU -143,308 (.2390%)
    REGN -59,098 (.1131%)
    NVS -223,902 (.0822%)
    ICE -108,600 (.0513%)

    ARKQ
    KTOS +238,928 (.0215%)
    RAVN +19,872 (.0215%)
    EXPC +71,800 (.0283%)
    VUZI +79,400 (.0403%)
    TER +18,472 (.0641%)
    TRMB +61,142 (.1231%)
    AONE +138,071 (.0488%)
    ACIC +605,500 (.2011%)

    FLIR -95,881 (.1403%)
    AMZN -3,626 (.3083%)
    AAPL -91,029 (.3094%)


    ARKW

    SQ +45,699 (.1277%)
    OPEN +571,500 (.1946%)
    PLTR +867,600 (.2534%)
    SPOT +34,604 (.1300%)
    SKLZ +105,694 (.0392%)
    SHOP +8,616 (.1318%)
    JD +205,200 (.2348%)
    TWTR +144,791 (.1356%)
    SI +62,505 (.0986%)
    PYPL +70,400 (.2217%)

    FB -71,281 (.2289%)
    TCEHY -596,547 (.6333%)
    CRM -2,923 (.0080%)
    AAPL -460,102 (.6926%)
    BABA -21,404 (.0632%)


    Highlights:
    • Nothing significant in ARKF
    • Close to half the GOOG position sold in ARKG
    • Another big buy of TWTR in ARKK and ARKW. Increased her position by 50%.
    • Increased her PLTR position by nearly 50% in ARKK and ARKW. These went from being not in her portfolios a week ago to now being middle of the pack holdings pretty quickly.
    • I said SNAP was on it's way out the door in ARKK. She just sold 90% of the already sold-off position. Has only 100k shares left. This will be gone today I'm sure. (left this comment in here. She sold another 63k. Only 36k left)
    • PINS position was less than halved in ARKK. This is on it's way out the door too. Possibly today. (left this comment in here from the previous update. Now down to 27k shares)
    • TSM cut by 50% in ARKK
    • AONE and ACIC positions were doubled in ARKQ
    • AMZN and AAPL are on their way out the door in ARKQ, both now in the bottom holdings less than half a percent of the portfolio each
    • Pretty big sells of TCEHY and AAPL in ARKW
    • AAPL, CRM, and BABA now combine to be .04% of ARKW. Basically all non-existent in the portfolio now.
     
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  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Saw this interesting write up on https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/lv1sjx/investors_beware_arkk_is_a_liquidity_disaster/

    ---paste---

    Lately I have been doing some research on Cathie Wood's Ark ETFs and am quite alarmed by what I am seeing. I am by no means an expert in finance, but I work in finance professionally. I spent 2 years on a long-short equity hedge fund in NYC right after college, and have worked in M&A for an asset management firm for the last 5.5 years. I am intimately aware of how active and passive (ETF) investment products function and acutely aware of the impact that investor fund flows can have on price and performance of an ETF.

    In the case of $ARKK and the family of ETFs, it is glaringly apparent to me that all of these ETFs in the last 12-14 months have become victims of their own success. What do I mean by this?

    We'll use $ARKK as an example. In the last 14 months, investors (and many of you) plowed money into $ARKK at a stunning rate - $10 billion in 2020, and another $5 billion in just the first two months of 2021. In conjunction with those investor flows, the Ark ETFs have developed what by any industry standard represent HUGE holdings in many of the portfolio companies, as high as 25-30% in dozens of cases. Many of these holdings are illiquid companies that don't trade significant volume on any given day. The combination of low liquidity, huge investor inflows into the ETF, and now enormous ownership stakes in the portfolio companies has had the effect of driving share prices higher. Much of the ETF's performance over the last 12-14 months is not a function of fundamental improvement of the portfolio companies, but a function of the ETF having to buy illiquid equity securities when inflows are positive. This may not be readily apparent to the untrained eye, but it is crystal clear for those with access to industry flow data.

    I ran an analysis on the weekly net flows into ARKK over the last 60 weeks, and found that portfolio performance of the ETF was highly correlated with ETF inflows.

    Correlation of 70%

    R-squared of 0.49

    That is to say, the tail is wagging the dog! ARKK has created its own good performance, but not because the companies have grown or fundamentally improved. Nearly entirely the result of the ETF buying.

    What happens next?

    Last week was a taste of the trouble ahead. When investors sell the ETF instead of buy, in order to cash out the investors the ETF must sell some of the stock in its portfolio companies, except that liquidity or lack of liquidity becomes a much bigger problem when investors are selling and when the broad equity/tech markets have a correction.

    The ARKK ETF price has appreciated nearly 350% in a very short time. Now that Cathie Wood represents a big chunk of the outstanding shares within companies that have become overvalued by almost all measures, and trade with very thin liquidity, any meaningful reversal in investor flows (out instead of in) will result in a cascading collapse of the Ark ETFs. If the fund can generate returns of 350% in roughly a year, just imagine what may happen if investors move toward the exits in a much shorter period of time.

    As someone who takes pride in my analytical work, and who is concerned about the limited investor knowledge of many people who own Cathie Wood's funds, I would strongly encourage you to do more research. Learn about the companies held by the ETFs. Try to educate yourselves on valuation methods. And please understand that unless you are willing to lose every dollar that you have invested with Ark, you should take some time to reflect on the risks you are taking.

    After spending a very short amount of time on this subreddit and others, I am concerned that many people may not be aware of these risks, and unfortunately the small investors in Cathie's funds will be the ones who bear the brunt of any crisis.

    As usual with Wall Street, the insiders like Cathie Wood will get huge payouts and the little guys will get to hold the bag. It is not widely known, but good food for thought that Cathie has sold a chunk of her company to American Beacon. In recent months there were changes to these ownership arrangements that are not publicly known. Whatever happens, Cathie Wood will be just fine, but the small investors may not be.

    Good luck and I hope I am wrong.

    Edit - for inquiring minds, the link below is a detailed and succinct overview of some of these concerns from a Fintwit personality.

    https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/1366028953828270082

    Edit - some have pushed back on the analysis and I appreciate the discussion, for additional thoughts on how some of these ETF products (and ETF's in general) can create distortions in the market, there are a few podcasts below that I found pretty worthwhile.

    https://www.zer0es.tv/interviews-and-analysis/the-perversion-of-passive-investment/

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-end-game-ep-3-mike-green/id1508585135?i=1000483139066

    Edit - some have suggested I re-create the analysis above on a number of more typical ETF products (great idea) to see if outcomes are similar. Some have also pushed back on the statistical significance of 70%/0.49. In finance if you can explain 49% of the variation using just one variable, it is pretty darn good. Not so good in physics or hard sciences.

    In any case, here goes...

    Background on methods and sources: Data comes from simfund, and the analysis is simple. We build a "roll forward" of the assets under management (AUM) for weekly flow data sets. An AUM roll forward is commonly found in the earnings presentations of all asset managers and is useful for understanding the sources of AUM growth in any given period.

    In this case:

    A: Beginning of period AUM <--- Sourced from Simfund

    B: +/- Net New Investor Flows <--- Sourced from Simfund

    C: +/- Market Performance <--- Implied by D less B less A

    D: End of Period AUM <--- Sourced from Simfund

    In this way we can see how many dollars flow into a certain ETF over the period, and how many dollars of market gains in the underlying portfolio took place in the same period. Presumably these two values (B&C) would be more highly correlated when B is large and the underlying portfolio is less liquid - causing upward pressure on prices for structural reasons rather than fundamental reasons, i.e. driven by the ETF and not by growth or fundamental improvement in the portfolio companies, i.e. paying a higher multiple for the same stock for no good reason.

    I think my analysis stands... but open to more constructive criticism.

    Output for Ark ETF's and compared with a number of other popular ETF's - Ticker: (correlation / r-sq)

    n = 60 weeks of data, which we focus on here because Ark products have seen such outsized flows (and returns) over this period

    Ark ETFs ARKQ: (69%/0.48) ARKF: (64%/0.41) ARKG: (42%/0.18) ARKK: (70%/0.49) ARKW: (70%/0.49)

    Other Popular ETF's SPY: (11%, 0.01) QQQ: (27%, 0.07) IWM: (20%, 0.04) XLE: (27%, 0.07) JETS: (21%, 0.04)

    Edit - Criticism of this approach may be that I am using dollar changes in both flows and portfolio returns, rather than periodic percentage changes, however my view is that it is the magnitude of the dollar flows that matters more than percentages when trying to ascertain the impact of illiquidity and investor flows.

    Edit - Worthy correction from u/notredwan - I was under the impression that American Beacon was in process on exercising its option to acquire a majority position in Ark as was originally agreed in 2016. Evidently that option was extinguished in December 2020 in a deal where Ark took on debt (and likely warrants) to pay off American Beacon on the option value. Back of the envelope math would have put the option value in the $100-150mm range.

    Reading here: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1pw88ldyr905m/The-ARK-Invest-Takeover-Battle-Is-Over
     
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  16. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Great point. Ark has become to big in my opinion.

    On a side note, what is your age? 40s?
     
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Yes, old enough to have done the Bre-X bubble :D
     
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  18. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    I would hate to be in a position to trade side by side, I would prefer to just write you a check and concede. :D
     
  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Interesting read. Makes you wanna think twice before piling money in.
     
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  20. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Might be better to handpick through the holdings.
     
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