Investors are piling into US equities like never before: Cumulative US stock inflows have hit a $448 BILLION year-to-date, a new all-time high. This is nearly TWICE as much as 2022 and 2023 combined. US equity fund flows have even surpassed the previous record of ~$400 billion posted in the 2021 bull market. Meanwhile, foreign participation in US markets has hit a new record of 60%. As a result, the S&P 500 has hit 51 all-time highs this year and is up 25%. Investors are all-in on US stocks.
Seems slightly reminiscent of things that have happened before... in the 1920s, maybe? I'm not predicting another Depression, by any means, but it does seem like things are mostly overbought, to me. Depression, unlikely. Bubble? It would seem so.
Ever since that Robin Hood crap came online everybody and their dog investing this year and past few.
Not just Robin Hood, although that may have played a part. WeBull.com and others make it very easy to invest, as well as 401k/403b and IRA accounts. Not to mention no trading fees, which is a relatively recent phenomena - late 2019 is when zero fees became common - so five years ago.
Got another chart for you The last time U.S. stocks were this overvalued versus the rest of the world was... well, never.
Thought we might see a correction in January next year but maybe it starts a little early thanks to the FED today
Michael Brush analyzed broad market patterns to conclude that the two-year stock-market party was nearing an end, and why the declines could accelerate in January. And Vivien Lou Chen explained how the trading action in U.S. Treasury bonds has been signaling another leg down for stocks.
Last week's rate cut reversal was the highest NDX volume of all time - tied with the October 2008 Lehman event. Major institutions are liquidating and as soon as volume returns next week they will hit the bid. Sell off Jan
My guess is we will still a decent year for equities next year but there will be a pretty big/scary correction in Q1, if that correction happens then I will be a pretty aggressive buyer
