Investors are piling into US equities like never before: Cumulative US stock inflows have hit a $448 BILLION year-to-date, a new all-time high. This is nearly TWICE as much as 2022 and 2023 combined. US equity fund flows have even surpassed the previous record of ~$400 billion posted in the 2021 bull market. Meanwhile, foreign participation in US markets has hit a new record of 60%. As a result, the S&P 500 has hit 51 all-time highs this year and is up 25%. Investors are all-in on US stocks.
Seems slightly reminiscent of things that have happened before... in the 1920s, maybe? I'm not predicting another Depression, by any means, but it does seem like things are mostly overbought, to me. Depression, unlikely. Bubble? It would seem so.
Ever since that Robin Hood crap came online everybody and their dog investing this year and past few.
Not just Robin Hood, although that may have played a part. WeBull.com and others make it very easy to invest, as well as 401k/403b and IRA accounts. Not to mention no trading fees, which is a relatively recent phenomena - late 2019 is when zero fees became common - so five years ago.
Got another chart for you The last time U.S. stocks were this overvalued versus the rest of the world was... well, never.
Thought we might see a correction in January next year but maybe it starts a little early thanks to the FED today
Michael Brush analyzed broad market patterns to conclude that the two-year stock-market party was nearing an end, and why the declines could accelerate in January. And Vivien Lou Chen explained how the trading action in U.S. Treasury bonds has been signaling another leg down for stocks.
Last week's rate cut reversal was the highest NDX volume of all time - tied with the October 2008 Lehman event. Major institutions are liquidating and as soon as volume returns next week they will hit the bid. Sell off Jan
My guess is we will still a decent year for equities next year but there will be a pretty big/scary correction in Q1, if that correction happens then I will be a pretty aggressive buyer
Wow AI names getting smashed today Some software names actually outperforming, I guess the market thinks the potential cheaper costs for AI might mean more players could get into the market rather than just the Mag 7
DeepFake all your keywords stored in China 80 billion cheaper then Navida others. Trump @realDonaldTrump on all fronts winning! You see Gaza bulldoze it over start over agree. China needs some tarrifs for their copycat products cheaper then dirt to us. Europe can buy that crap and put everyone out of business there. My dad thinks Trump will fire Powell Fed chair for not lowering rates. You see rates on cars and credit homes. Nobody buying anything.
I guess Trump saw the market at ATH and it wasn't a bad timing to go ahead with tariffs, if the market sold off hard earlier this month then he probably would have said something like tariffs will be delayed to March
It'll be a real shitshow if he decides to go ahead with a 100% tariff on Taiwanese chips in a bully effort to bring it all over here. I sure hope someone talks him out of that stupidity.
Most people are delusional about what constitutes a "high interest rate" and a "low interest rate" - mainly because the Fed spent well over a decade ARTIFICIALLY keeping the prime interest rate near ZERO! ZERO. That was unprecedented - it had NEVER happened before in U.S. history. Consider this: "According to data from Trading Economics, the average prime rate over the past 50 years in the United States is approximately 6.54%." So, the current prime rate is not that much different than the 50-year historical average. And low interest rates DO NOT work in favor of all citizens!! People who are dependent on interest income are seriously hurt by artificially low rates. Many senior citizens fall into this category. Everybody who has money in savings accounts and CDs is effected to one degree or another. I'm not saying that low interest rates are bad, or that "average" interest rates are necessarily good. My point is that the near hysteria shown by some people over current "high" interest rates is ridiculous. It seems to be part of a much larger societal problem where a large percentage of people have lost the ability to see various sides of any given issue -and/or- refuse to consider any information or position that they believe - correctly or incorrectly - isn't the information or position most favorable to themselves.
