NVDA day today.....at the close. So not really NVDA day today......that will be tomorrow. he markets today will be irrelevant as a result. I will miss it all since I have to get out of here to a rehearsal about 11:00 and I will miss the rest of the day. SO......you guys.....get me some good earnings from NVDA.
Sounds about right......and....they also pay about SEVENTY SIX PERCENT.....of all income taxes collected by the government. The Top 10% https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-top-10/ "The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks in this country. They also own 84% of the private businesses, 44% of real estate and two-thirds of overall wealth. These numbers have all increased since 1989 as well — total wealth (60.8% to 67.3%), stocks (81.7% to 87.2%), private businesses (78.4% to 84.4%) and real estate (38.2% to 43.9%). According to The Wall Street Journal, the top 10% also accounts for 50% of all consumer spending: Three decades ago the top 10% made up 36% of spending. It’s accelerating this decade: Between September 2023 and September 2024, the high earners increased their spending by 12%. Spending by working-class and middle-class households, meanwhile, dropped over the same period. The bottom 80% of earners spent 25% more than they did four years earlier, barely outpacing price increases of 21% over that period. The top 10% spent 58% more. The top 10% is spending way more on an inflation-adjusted basis in the 2020s. Look at the travel budget for the wealthiest household (via another piece from the WSJ): The wealthy class exist in a different stratosphere and there are wide-ranging implications here: Concentration is everywhere. The stock market is concentrated. So is the economy. This concentration could make markets and the economy riskier but it also makes them harder to handicap. When you have wealth concentrated in the hands of the few it’s much more difficult to understand what’s going on using metrics that may have worked in the past. This is why economic anecdotes aren’t very useful when trying to gauge the performance of the U.S. economy. What happens if the wealth effect slows? The top 10% is spending more in part because their financial assets have increased in value substantially. Stocks are up. Housing prices are up. Equity in businesses is up. The stock market is not the economy, but it seems like the two are now more intertwined than they were in the past. I’m not sure what stops this. Wealth inequality is only getting worse in this country and frankly I’m not sure what stops this train. It feels like it’s unsustainable but the rich just keep getting richer. Short of a financial crisis I don’t really see what slows this trend. Even then I’m not sure there would be much of a long-term impact. If there is a financial crisis, guess who has the means to ride out a storm and buy assets on the cheap? The top 10%. Unfortunately, I don’t see wealth inequality getting better any time soon. I’m fairly confident it’s only going to get worse from here." MY COMMENT GEE....too bad. I dont see this as a bad thing at all or something that needs to be corrected. It is just how it is. In fact my view is that money was probably WAY MORE concentrated in the past than they are now. Be careful what you wish for.
You think? DUH. Nvidia's post-earnings reactions don't always align with the big picture https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-the-big-picture-morning-brief-110014201.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Markets are at a crossroads. On Monday, indexes for large-cap stocks (^GSPC), small-cap stocks (^RUT), and the "Magnificent Seven" (MAGS) all sliced through key support levels. Then, on Tuesday, one of the most sensitive risk barometers — bitcoin (BTC-USD) — got taken to the woodshed, tanking the most since August (8%) and dropping to three-month lows. (A six-digit price is once again the target, not the base case.) But investors can hold on to hope for a few more hours. After the bell today, the world turns to fourth quarter earnings for the linchpin of AI euphoria, Nvidia (NVDA). This two-plus-year bull market has weathered several multi-month periods when Nvidia's stock price sputtered. But the company's stock hasn't contributed to the bull market since last June, as its share price has effectively gone nowhere in that time. Nvidia has a storied history of bullish reactions following earnings, but the results are unsurprisingly volatile. Yahoo Finance analyzed stock price movement after all 103 earnings results for holding periods of one day, one week, one month, one quarter, and one year. Over the last 10 years (40 reports), buying Nvidia stock just before the earnings announcement has yielded a median return of 3% to 4% on the one-day, one-week, and one-month time frames. Holding for three months has yielded nearly 18%. But the most substantial gains have been recognized by the longer-term holders, who have seen their holdings more than double (112%) over the following year. No surprises here. The disparity highlights a key tenet of the returns of Nvidia — and most of the growth stock darlings and highfliers over the years. Initial reactions may not make for long-term trends. And, of course, volatile earnings reactions might net bullish results but can also cause significant discomfort in the near term. But for all the Nvidia obsession, investors are right to question how much AI is still a picks-and-shovels or even an energy trade (as it morphed into in 2024). On a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, Lee Munson, president and chief investment officer of Portfolio Wealth Advisors, said the energy trade linked to AI — think utilities and infrastructure — hasn’t played out as expected. “I am exiting that thesis,” he said. Munson says you can own Nvidia and sleep at night, "but that's not where you can make the big money." Instead, Munson sees opportunity in software. "I think you've got to look at who's going to be able to provide bolt-on AI productivity tools right now," he said. He believes Microsoft overpaid for infrastructure but likes other enterprise names like Salesforce (CRM) and SAP (SAP). "We thought [the time for the AI software trade] was going to be late 2026. But guess what — by the end of 2025, we're going to be able to provide your enterprise a bolt-on AI doohickey," he said. Meanwhile, Salesforce reports its own quarterly results Wednesday, in the shadow of its big brother in the AI trade." MY COMMENT A bit of historical data on NVDA....but basically a NOTHING little article. Not much here that EVERYONE does not already know.
Some good news for home buyers.....but....when we say "lowest level this year"....we are only talking about two months. US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rates-decline-6-120000094.html MY COMMENT Get used to it and quit whining. These are NORMAL mortgage rates. YES.....it is extremely unlikely that anyone alive right now will ever see mortgage rates below 4% in their lifetime.
YEP....markets are up at he moment. I dont trust where we are right now. I am expecting the averages to turn red by the close as short term people....traders and speculators....play the NVDA disrespect game. I hope I am wrong....after all this is just a guess. As you can see I have a negative view of the short term markets over the next 1-3 months. The primary reason is the impact of the next 1-3 months of politics on the markets. We need to get past the current FEAR attitude about everything. I think things will sort out nicely within about 3-4 months.
ALL the short term BALONEY on here obviously obscures my longer term thinking. I EXPECT the longer term to be POSITIVE for investors as usual. The long term will give us clarity and as always will make earnings and fundamentals meaningful. I continue to be FULLY invested for the long term as usual. In fact....after I do my bills tonight I expect to have a little bit of spare money to add a couple of shares of PLTR and NVDA tomorrow.
It is nice to actually be making some money today....at least so far. S&P 500 rises for first time in 5 sessions, Nvidia gains before earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 trying to snap a four-day losing streak, as investors awaited earnings from market bellwether Nvidia. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 181 points, or 0.4%. Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell Wednesday, could be the next catalyst for the market. The stock climbed more than 3% Wednesday. The report arrives at a pivotal time for Nvidia. The emergence of DeepSeek raised questions about the sustainability of the once-hot artificial intelligence trade. The chip giant and other momentum plays are also showing signs of fizzling, with Nvidia down 2% in 2025. “Nvidia is the bellwether and market-darling stock that is of vital importance to the broader markets. Its performance provides meaningful guidance for the broader market tone. The importance for the tech sector cannot be understated,” said SWBC chief investment officer Chris Brigati. Stocks are coming off a weak session. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both logged their fourth consecutive losing day. The 30-stock Dow was the outlier, with a roughly 0.4% advance. A weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board weighed on stocks Tuesday. A raft of recent reports, including disappointing retail sales numbers and a weak consumer sentiment reading have spurred traders’ worries around the economy over the past week, leading to pressure on the major averages. “The policy uncertainty. ... has certainly filtered its way into a lot of the soft data,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday. “That’s why you’re seeing things like buying intensions for big ticket items, capex intentions and spending plans really pull down.” The main upcoming economic data release for investors will be the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge." MY COMMENT NICE to see a positive day even if we see a FADE later closer to the close.
OK.....I am done for the day. I will be back well after the close to see how NVDA did. ALL this breathless expectation game that the media is playing has me BORED with the NVDA earnings and just wanting to be done with them. At this point I actually dont care what happens....lets just move on....beyond the short term BS..
The Top 10% article is pretty interesting and supports simple logic and goes along with Darwinism. The motivated and financial intelligent grow their market share while the people either stuck or just content getting by continue on without growth. I am fairly confident the vast majority can generate wealth but refuse to make the sacrifices and time to do so.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported first quarter EPS of $0.89, $0.05 better than the analyst estimate of $0.84. Revenue for the quarter came in at $39.3B versus the consensus estimate of $38.02B. Guidance NVIDIA sees Q1 2026 revenue of $43.00B versus the analyst consensus of $42.26B. NVIDIA's stock price closed at $131.28. It is down -5.04% in the last 3 months and up 66.81% in the last 12 months.
Here is NVDA. Nvidia sales grow 78% on AI demand, company gives strong guidance https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q4-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations. The company’s revenue in the quarter rose 78%, and full fiscal-year revenue for Nvidia rose 114% to $130.5 billion. Nvidia said it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2%, versus $41.78 billion expected per LSEG estimates. Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations. The company also provided strong guidance for the current quarter. The company’s report and guidance signals that the chipmaker is confident it will be able to continue its historic run of growth driven by artificial intelligence well into 2025. Shares were flat in extended trading. Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG: Revenue: $39.33 billion vs. $38.05 billion estimated Earnings per share: $0.89 adjusted vs. $0.84 estimated Nvidia said it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2%, versus $41.78 billion expected per LSEG estimates. The first-quarter forecast implies year-to-yeargrowth of about 65% from a year earlier, a slowdown from 262% annual growth in the same period a year prior. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said the company expects “a significant ramp” of sales of Blackwell, its next-generation AI chip, in the first quarter. Net income during the quarter rose to $22.09 billion, or 89 cents per diluted share, versus $12.29 billion, or 49 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Nvidia reported a 73% gross margin in the quarter, which was down three points on an annual basis. The company said the decline in gross margin was due to newer data center products that were more complicated and expensive. Revenue continues to surge at Nvidia as the company rides the AI boom with its data center graphics processing units, or GPUs, which comprise the vast majority of the market for AI accelerators. Nvidia’s revenue in the quarter rose 78%, and full fiscal-year revenue for Nvidia rose 114% to $130.5 billion. However, Nvidia’s growth is slowing as the company becomes larger. During the fourth-quarter of fiscal 2024, Nvidia sales more than tripled. Much of the focus this calendar year is on how quickly the company can ship its next-generation AI processors, called Blackwell. Nvidia said it had $11 billion in Blackwell revenue during the fourth quarter. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand for Blackwell is “amazing” in a statement, and Kress called it “the fastest product ramp in our company’s history.” “Blackwell sales were led by large cloud service providers which represented approximately 50% of our Data Center revenue,” Kress said in a statement. Blackwell sales, as well as sales of the previous generation Hopper AI chips, are reported in the company’s data center business. That unit now represents 91% of the company’s total sales, up from 83% a year ago and 60% in the same period of 2023. In total, data center revenue has increased about tenfold over the past two years. Nvidia said it had $35.6 billion in data center revenue in the fourth quarter, which was up 93% on an annual basis. That also surpassed StreetAccount expectations of $33.65 billion. Nvidia officials told investors that while its chips were previously used to develop, or train, artificial intelligence, its new chips such as Blackwell would be used to deliver AI software, a process often called inference. Kress also addressed investor concerns that efficient models such as DeepSeek’s R1 may limit the need for additional Nvidia chips. New ways of running AI models that ask the AI to generate additional information to “think” through responses could require as much as 100 times the amount of Nvidia chips, she said. “Long-thinking, reasoning AI can require 100 times more compute per task compared to one shot inferences,” Kress said. “The vast majority of our compute today is actually inference,” Huang told investors. He said next-generation AI algorithms could even need millions of times the current amount of computing capacity. Huang also addressed questions about whether Nvidia’s business could be threatened by custom chips being developed by technology companies such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google. “Just because the chip is designed doesn’t mean it gets deployed,” Huang said. The company’s data center business this quarter also included $3 billion in sales for the company’s networking parts, which are used to connect hundreds of thousands of GPUs together. However, while Nvidia had signaled that networking was a growth opportunity for the company, networking sales were down 9% from a year ago. The company’s gaming business, which includes graphics processors for playing 3D games, reported $2.5 billion in sales versus StreetAccount expectations of $3.04 billion. Nvidia’s graphics sales actually declined 11% on an annual basis. The company announced new graphics cards for consumers during the quarter that share the same Blackwell architecture as the company’s AI chips. One of the company’s growth categories is its business selling chips for cars and robots. Nvidia said on Wednesday that it had $570 million in automotive sales during the quarter, which is a small fraction of the company’s AI business, but which represents a 103% rise on a year-over-year basis. Nvidia said it spent $33.7 billion on share repurchases in its fiscal 2025." MY COMMENT This is blow-out earnings and a HUGE guidance from the worlds most successful business in my view. yet tomorrow it is likely that everyone will be ignoring what they just released and acting like it is no big deal. WELL....show me another company or two that is doing these sorts of numbers with the future business that is going to happen for this company. The constant negativity and talking down of this stock and company is simply RIDICULOUS.
Oh yes....today. I ended in the GREEN with a medium gain today. Nice to get a green day today.....compliments of.....NVDA, PLTR, AMZN, and MSFT. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.78%.
As expected NVDA is in the red which makes perfect sense after yesterday's steller ER. This is a perfect example of the current state of the market. Hopefully rationality prevails over the long term but if ER's and financial performance are irrelevant I think we all are pretty much gambling.
Managing your money and risk as you age and get closer to retirement is important for most people. this is a pretty good little article on that topic. How Should Your Allocation Change With Age? https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-should-your-allocation-change-with-age/
The NVDA disrespect continues. They put up a BIG BEAT and for them....VERY POSITIVE guidance. BUT....no matter....no one cares. The markets over the past 6-8 months have simply been squandering and throwing away one of the greatest companies of the modern era. Apparently fundamental results dont matter anymore for this company. Even HUGE guidance....which is not the norm for introverted NVDA....also means nothing. The investing community simply does not care. I have never seen anything like this over 55+ years of investing. This is a simple lesson in the markets being disconnected from reality. I place most of the blame on the day to day financial media and their obsessive and IGNORANT focus on speculative and negative opinion articles.....in other words fear-mongering. I dont see ANY chance that this type of environment will change for the better....like everything it will get worse and worse. As I have said many times....there will be a point where the markets will NOT be able to recover from this environment and ALL connection between stock prices and fundamentals will be lost. Once that happens the markets will be TOTALLY CONTAMINATED by AI TRADING. In the end it will be a HUGE MARKET SEA-CHANGE....and.....will end up being permanent. This is the BIG issue that young people should be concerned with....not whether Social Security will be around when they retire. With the elimination of private pensions.....the destruction of the stock market system as the primary RELIABLE investment for self-funded retirement vehicles like the IRA and the 401K will.....create a MASSIVE change in our society and for the financial security of the entire population of the USA.....which will be at risk. If it can happen to a company at this level it can happen to any company. NOT a good sign for the future of the markets and investing.
I dont say the above based on negativity. I say it from the standpoint of a person that is very CLINICAL and unemotional as an investor........and....is very much connected to reality......and........has a very good innate ability to see the future. Too bad for those that are under age 40, and especially those under age 30.....unfortunately.......I predict that you will spend your lives being jerked around by the asinine day to day.....24/7.....media. Of course.....I will probably not be around to see how this all plays out beyond perhaps..... another 20 years or so. BUT.....what can you do? I dont know....probably NOTHING. Simply continue to invest and hope that I am wrong. In the end.....YOU....will simply have to live and survive in the world and conditions that you create and deserve.
As usual the government data is simply....WORTHLESS. At lest this is yet another bit of news that should please the FED. Some day we are going to wake up in a recession....or worse.....my economic boogeyman....a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION..... and everyone is going to be scratching their heads and wondering how we got there. GDP: US economy grows at 2.3% annualized pace in fourth quarter, matching estimates https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-...rth-quarter-matching-estimates-133216310.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US economy grew at an unrevised 2.3% annualized pace last quarter, on par with consensus estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's (BEA) second estimate of fourth quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged from the advanced estimate, which had shown 2.3% annualized growth. The second estimate, based on more complete source data than the advanced estimate, suggests that economic growth in the fourth quarter was slower than the 3.1% annualized growth seen in the third quarter. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment, according to the BEA. A third and final estimate for Q4 GDP growth will be released at the end of March. The growth update comes on the heels of greater concerns that President Trump's tariff plans will hurt the US economy and lead to slower growth and higher inflation over time. According to data released earlier this week, consumer confidence plummeted in February, notching its biggest monthly decline in nearly four years as 12-month inflation expectations jumped and recession fears escalated. The latest consumer sentiment data also highlighted fears around tariffs and the impact that those and other Trump 2.0 policies, like immigration curbs and DOGE layoffs, could have on the broader economy. "The immediate policy changes from the new administration (immigration enforcement and tariffs) are likely to weigh on growth while providing little relief on inflation," Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Wednesday's GDP reading is considered backward-looking, given that it provides an update on economic growth for the quarter that ended in December. Projections show the economy growing at a steady pace in the current quarter, which ends in March. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker currently projects the US economy is pacing for annualized growth of 2.3%. Separately, data from the US Labor Department released Thursday showed 242,000 unemployment claims were filed in the week ending Feb. 22, ahead of Wall Street's expectations for 221,000 and an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marked the highest level of filed claims since December. There was also a notable increase in D.C. jobless claims, with 2,047 claims filed last week versus 1,626 in the prior-week period. Overall, though, federal jobless claims did not show any obvious impact from DOGE-related layoffs, though economists warned the timing is still early. Continuing weekly unemployment insurance claims also continued to hover at three-year highs, highlighting the ongoing challenge for workers to find a new job. Continuing claims during the week ending Feb. 15 ticked down slightly to 1.86 million, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level and below Wall Street expectations." MY COMMENT LOL........if there is one bit of data that is simply economic VOODOO.....it is "consumer confidence". It is simply an anecdotal....JOKE.
Since we live in BIZARRO WORLD......here is a little bit of alternate reality......( actually the TRUTH, but no one cares) Bizarro World https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro_World Nvidia earnings, outlook top Wall Street forecasts as CEO Jensen Huang touts 'light speed' AI advances https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-touts-light-speed-ai-advances-090009668.html MY COMMENT No need for me to post any of this content. If no one cares.....it is not relevant.
I will note regarding the above little article this quote: "We’ve successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter," CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. "AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.” "We delivered $11.0 billion of Blackwell architecture revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the fastest product ramp in our company’s history." MY COMMENT Who could have ever guessed that all the made up media BS about Blackwell and DeepSeek....would turn out to simply be a BIG LIE. WOW......the fastest product ramp-up in company history. BUT....hey.....WHO CARES.
I will be buying 1 share of NVDA and 1 share of PLTR today. In fact as soon as I post this comment I am going to log off and go into my account and do the orders. I decided that I am going to add one share of each company each month when I do the bills. I am always trying to find new ways to get money into the markets at times when I dont have any big chunk of money to invest. It is the perfect time to start this little plan....since the shares are in a FIRE-SALE right now. I do expect to be able to put about $15,000 into the markets some time in the second half of the year. When it will happen I dont know yet.....it will depend on my cash flow.
