NVA day today.....at the close. So not really NVDA day today......that will be tomorrow. he markets today will be irrelevant as a result. I will miss it all since I have to get out of here to a rehearsal about 11:00 and I will miss the rest of the day. SO......you guys.....get me some good earnings from NVDA.
Sounds about right......and....they also pay about SEVENTY SIX PERCENT.....of all income taxes collected by the government. The Top 10% https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-top-10/ "The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks in this country. They also own 84% of the private businesses, 44% of real estate and two-thirds of overall wealth. These numbers have all increased since 1989 as well — total wealth (60.8% to 67.3%), stocks (81.7% to 87.2%), private businesses (78.4% to 84.4%) and real estate (38.2% to 43.9%). According to The Wall Street Journal, the top 10% also accounts for 50% of all consumer spending: Three decades ago the top 10% made up 36% of spending. It’s accelerating this decade: Between September 2023 and September 2024, the high earners increased their spending by 12%. Spending by working-class and middle-class households, meanwhile, dropped over the same period. The bottom 80% of earners spent 25% more than they did four years earlier, barely outpacing price increases of 21% over that period. The top 10% spent 58% more. The top 10% is spending way more on an inflation-adjusted basis in the 2020s. Look at the travel budget for the wealthiest household (via another piece from the WSJ): The wealthy class exist in a different stratosphere and there are wide-ranging implications here: Concentration is everywhere. The stock market is concentrated. So is the economy. This concentration could make markets and the economy riskier but it also makes them harder to handicap. When you have wealth concentrated in the hands of the few it’s much more difficult to understand what’s going on using metrics that may have worked in the past. This is why economic anecdotes aren’t very useful when trying to gauge the performance of the U.S. economy. What happens if the wealth effect slows? The top 10% is spending more in part because their financial assets have increased in value substantially. Stocks are up. Housing prices are up. Equity in businesses is up. The stock market is not the economy, but it seems like the two are now more intertwined than they were in the past. I’m not sure what stops this. Wealth inequality is only getting worse in this country and frankly I’m not sure what stops this train. It feels like it’s unsustainable but the rich just keep getting richer. Short of a financial crisis I don’t really see what slows this trend. Even then I’m not sure there would be much of a long-term impact. If there is a financial crisis, guess who has the means to ride out a storm and buy assets on the cheap? The top 10%. Unfortunately, I don’t see wealth inequality getting better any time soon. I’m fairly confident it’s only going to get worse from here." MY COMMENT GEE....too bad. I dont see this as a bad thing at all or something that needs to be corrected. It is just how it is. In fact my view is that money was probably WAY MORE concentrated in the past than they are now. Be careful what you wish for.
You think? DUH. Nvidia's post-earnings reactions don't always align with the big picture https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-the-big-picture-morning-brief-110014201.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Markets are at a crossroads. On Monday, indexes for large-cap stocks (^GSPC), small-cap stocks (^RUT), and the "Magnificent Seven" (MAGS) all sliced through key support levels. Then, on Tuesday, one of the most sensitive risk barometers — bitcoin (BTC-USD) — got taken to the woodshed, tanking the most since August (8%) and dropping to three-month lows. (A six-digit price is once again the target, not the base case.) But investors can hold on to hope for a few more hours. After the bell today, the world turns to fourth quarter earnings for the linchpin of AI euphoria, Nvidia (NVDA). This two-plus-year bull market has weathered several multi-month periods when Nvidia's stock price sputtered. But the company's stock hasn't contributed to the bull market since last June, as its share price has effectively gone nowhere in that time. Nvidia has a storied history of bullish reactions following earnings, but the results are unsurprisingly volatile. Yahoo Finance analyzed stock price movement after all 103 earnings results for holding periods of one day, one week, one month, one quarter, and one year. Over the last 10 years (40 reports), buying Nvidia stock just before the earnings announcement has yielded a median return of 3% to 4% on the one-day, one-week, and one-month time frames. Holding for three months has yielded nearly 18%. But the most substantial gains have been recognized by the longer-term holders, who have seen their holdings more than double (112%) over the following year. No surprises here. The disparity highlights a key tenet of the returns of Nvidia — and most of the growth stock darlings and highfliers over the years. Initial reactions may not make for long-term trends. And, of course, volatile earnings reactions might net bullish results but can also cause significant discomfort in the near term. But for all the Nvidia obsession, investors are right to question how much AI is still a picks-and-shovels or even an energy trade (as it morphed into in 2024). On a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, Lee Munson, president and chief investment officer of Portfolio Wealth Advisors, said the energy trade linked to AI — think utilities and infrastructure — hasn’t played out as expected. “I am exiting that thesis,” he said. Munson says you can own Nvidia and sleep at night, "but that's not where you can make the big money." Instead, Munson sees opportunity in software. "I think you've got to look at who's going to be able to provide bolt-on AI productivity tools right now," he said. He believes Microsoft overpaid for infrastructure but likes other enterprise names like Salesforce (CRM) and SAP (SAP). "We thought [the time for the AI software trade] was going to be late 2026. But guess what — by the end of 2025, we're going to be able to provide your enterprise a bolt-on AI doohickey," he said. Meanwhile, Salesforce reports its own quarterly results Wednesday, in the shadow of its big brother in the AI trade." MY COMMENT A bit of historical data on NVDA....but basically a NOTHING little article. Not much here that EVERYONE does not already know.
Some good news for home buyers.....but....when we say "lowest level this year"....we are only talking about two months. US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rates-decline-6-120000094.html MY COMMENT Get used to it and quit whining. These are NORMAL mortgage rates. YES.....it is extremely unlikely that anyone alive right now will ever see mortgage rates below 4% in their lifetime.
YEP....markets are up at he moment. I dont trust where we are right now. I am expecting the averages to turn red by the close as short term people....traders and speculators....play the NVDA disrespect game. I hope I am wrong....after all this is just a guess. As you can see I have a negative view of the short term markets over the next 1-3 months. The primary reason is the impact of the next 1-3 months of politics on the markets. We need to get past the current FEAR attitude about everything. I think things will sort out nicely within about 3-4 months.
ALL the short term BALONEY on here obviously obscures my longer term thinking. I EXPECT the longer term to be POSITIVE for investors as usual. The long term will give us clarity and as always will make earnings and fundamentals meaningful. I continue to be FULLY invested for the long term as usual. In fact....after I do my bills tonight I expect to have a little bit of spare money to add a couple of shares of PLTR and NVDA tomorrow.
It is nice to actually be making some money today....at least so far. S&P 500 rises for first time in 5 sessions, Nvidia gains before earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 trying to snap a four-day losing streak, as investors awaited earnings from market bellwether Nvidia. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 181 points, or 0.4%. Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell Wednesday, could be the next catalyst for the market. The stock climbed more than 3% Wednesday. The report arrives at a pivotal time for Nvidia. The emergence of DeepSeek raised questions about the sustainability of the once-hot artificial intelligence trade. The chip giant and other momentum plays are also showing signs of fizzling, with Nvidia down 2% in 2025. “Nvidia is the bellwether and market-darling stock that is of vital importance to the broader markets. Its performance provides meaningful guidance for the broader market tone. The importance for the tech sector cannot be understated,” said SWBC chief investment officer Chris Brigati. Stocks are coming off a weak session. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both logged their fourth consecutive losing day. The 30-stock Dow was the outlier, with a roughly 0.4% advance. A weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board weighed on stocks Tuesday. A raft of recent reports, including disappointing retail sales numbers and a weak consumer sentiment reading have spurred traders’ worries around the economy over the past week, leading to pressure on the major averages. “The policy uncertainty. ... has certainly filtered its way into a lot of the soft data,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday. “That’s why you’re seeing things like buying intensions for big ticket items, capex intentions and spending plans really pull down.” The main upcoming economic data release for investors will be the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge." MY COMMENT NICE to see a positive day even if we see a FADE later closer to the close.
OK.....I am done for the day. I will be back well after the close to see how NVDA did. ALL this breathless expectation game that the media is playing has me BORED with the NVDA earnings and just wanting to be done with them. At this point I actually dont care what happens....lets just move on....beyond the short term BS..
The Top 10% article is pretty interesting and supports simple logic and goes along with Darwinism. The motivated and financial intelligent grow their market share while the people either stuck or just content getting by continue on without growth. I am fairly confident the vast majority can generate wealth but refuse to make the sacrifices and time to do so.
