This market is not giving up, at this rate it looks like new highs this summer. Maybe an October swoon?
Still holding - Bought a couple next week 270 SPY Puts as a small hedge - but may end up being a play after these two extremely low volume big green days. I kinda smell a bull trap/retail trader trap - FOMO into a selloff.
Almost touching the upper BB 200. This acted as resistance on 4/18... We will see if it acts as resistance again.
@Frankenstein was talking about an institutional ticker that tracks institutional buying - I think it is TICK. I think if it is above 800 it means institutions are buying. I just checked volume @ 1:10PM EST and we are at about 2.3M - extremely low volume yesterday and today.
okay, so just for fun here i felt like whipping up one of these market scenario charts again. recall that i did this a few weeks back, but this time i'm coming up with two scenario's instead of the one that i had in mind. i'm basically just comparing the market corrections from 2015/2016 to 2018's and coming up with a scenario chart of what i think could happen next. (please keep in mind that these charts patterns are not "perfect" by any stretch as you guys will clearly see. it's just something i like doing for fun whenever we're the midst of a market correction...) so (1) = is the initial selloff (2) = the dead cat bounce (3) = retest of the correction lows ... then resumption of the bull rally to new market highs. and here is my scenario #2- i am wondering if we will do the 1st scenario which is that we already had a successful retest of the correction lows, so now we're onto the resumption of the bull rally to new highs from here. or if we do the 2nd scenario which is that we haven't successfully retested the correction lows yet, so this is essentially a fake out break out of the downtrend and we head lower from here and ultimately make a new low sometime in the summer (?). i'm on the fence on this one right now...i know i had said a few weeks back that i thought we would see one more move lower and make new lows sometime in the late summer. still thinking that we'll see that but not as confident now as i was then.
Not necessarily. But I've found that low volume normally means retail investors with the big guys sitting on the sidelines to either knock it down or run it up. This is usually what is called FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) for the retail investor - where the big guys have already bought at the lows, just lets the price be bid up by the retail investor and once they get the $ they want they start to sell their shares - rinse and repeat. I know this sound a little tinfoil hat(ish), but has been my experience.
I'm still thinking lower lows this summer. Or at least more jiggly-wiggly sideways action. There's a lot of econ and political info to process right now, mid-terms are now less than 6 months away, and the run since Nov 2016 has been pretty epic, so an extended period of consolidation doesn't seem all that far fetched. Beeeeg news, of course, has potential to jump start something unidirectional, but until November I think it will be treading-in-choppy-water....which isn't the end of the world for traders! Could be fun!
I hope so! Tomorrow and Monday will be interesting. Since the start of the correction, SPX has gapped up 4 times (on a full-day basis, so not counting gaps up that later filled during the day). The previous 3 times, it reversed within a day or two on higher volume, and ultimately filled the gap. Interesting that each time was above 50 DMA.
Dollar weaker after that CPI miss this morning Big caps outperforming small caps today, seems to be the case very often when the dollar has a weak day
i use the $tick sometimes as well, 1k to 1200 up or down is pretty extreme levels and usually moves the market in a big way very quickly. was wondering why the huge reversal in LABU, seems traders are scared of the trump drug pricing speech tommorow, so people sold out and are getting out the way.
Yeah, Chuck Schumer was tweeting at Trump about drug prices today too. While QQQ and IWM are nearing alltime highs, the IBB/XBI has been floundering.
