Stock Market Today: May 7th - 11th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, May 4, 2018.

  1. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    SPY basically did this same move yesterday...small pullback, then bulls kept on buying it up.
     
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  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This market is not giving up, at this rate it looks like new highs this summer.

    Maybe an October swoon?
     
  3. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Still holding - Bought a couple next week 270 SPY Puts as a small hedge - but may end up being a play after these two extremely low volume big green days. I kinda smell a bull trap/retail trader trap - FOMO into a selloff.
     
    #83 AverageJoesTrades, May 10, 2018
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
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  4. jazz

    jazz New Member

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    Is there a way to tell when institutional traders are coming in?
     
  5. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Almost touching the upper BB 200. This acted as resistance on 4/18... We will see if it acts as resistance again.
     
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  6. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    @Frankenstein was talking about an institutional ticker that tracks institutional buying - I think it is TICK. I think if it is above 800 it means institutions are buying.

    I just checked volume @ 1:10PM EST and we are at about 2.3M - extremely low volume yesterday and today.
     
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  7. jazz

    jazz New Member

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    low volume means? market is likely to go down?
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    okay, so just for fun here i felt like whipping up one of these market scenario charts again.

    recall that i did this a few weeks back, but this time i'm coming up with two scenario's instead of the one that i had in mind.

    i'm basically just comparing the market corrections from 2015/2016 to 2018's and coming up with a scenario chart of what i think could happen next.

    (please keep in mind that these charts patterns are not "perfect" by any stretch as you guys will clearly see. :p it's just something i like doing for fun whenever we're the midst of a market correction...)

    so (1) = is the initial selloff (2) = the dead cat bounce (3) = retest of the correction lows ... then resumption of the bull rally to new market highs.

    [​IMG]

    and here is my scenario #2-

    [​IMG]

    i am wondering if we will do the 1st scenario which is that we already had a successful retest of the correction lows, so now we're onto the resumption of the bull rally to new highs from here.

    or if we do the 2nd scenario which is that we haven't successfully retested the correction lows yet, so this is essentially a fake out break out of the downtrend and we head lower from here and ultimately make a new low sometime in the summer (?).

    i'm on the fence on this one right now...i know i had said a few weeks back that i thought we would see one more move lower and make new lows sometime in the late summer. still thinking that we'll see that but not as confident now as i was then. :p
     
  9. jazz

    jazz New Member

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    you were correct!!!!
     
  10. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    $tick is sometimes what it's called.
    Some guys I knew on the old HSM used to use it.
    I never have.
     
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  11. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    And here's what $TICK looks like graphically (daily chart):

    $TICK 2018-05-10 at 2.06.24 PM.png
     
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  12. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Not necessarily. But I've found that low volume normally means retail investors with the big guys sitting on the sidelines to either knock it down or run it up.

    This is usually what is called FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) for the retail investor - where the big guys have already bought at the lows, just lets the price be bid up by the retail investor and once they get the $ they want they start to sell their shares - rinse and repeat. I know this sound a little tinfoil hat(ish), but has been my experience.
     
    #92 AverageJoesTrades, May 10, 2018
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
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  13. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I'm still thinking lower lows this summer. Or at least more jiggly-wiggly sideways action.

    There's a lot of econ and political info to process right now, mid-terms are now less than 6 months away, and the run since Nov 2016 has been pretty epic, so an extended period of consolidation doesn't seem all that far fetched. :) Beeeeg news, of course, has potential to jump start something unidirectional, but until November I think it will be treading-in-choppy-water....which isn't the end of the world for traders! Could be fun!
     
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  14. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    I'm in the "jiggly-wiggly sideways, then up" camp...
     
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  15. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I hope so!

    Tomorrow and Monday will be interesting. Since the start of the correction, SPX has gapped up 4 times (on a full-day basis, so not counting gaps up that later filled during the day). The previous 3 times, it reversed within a day or two on higher volume, and ultimately filled the gap. Interesting that each time was above 50 DMA.

    SPX gaps 2018-05-10 at 2.32.19 PM.png
     
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Dollar weaker after that CPI miss this morning :eek: Big caps outperforming small caps today, seems to be the case very often when the dollar has a weak day :p
     
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  17. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    i use the $tick sometimes as well, 1k to 1200 up or down is pretty extreme levels and usually moves the market in a big way very quickly.

    was wondering why the huge reversal in LABU, seems traders are scared of the trump drug pricing speech tommorow, so people sold out and are getting out the way.
     
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  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, Chuck Schumer was tweeting at Trump about drug prices today too. While QQQ and IWM are nearing alltime highs, the IBB/XBI has been floundering.
     
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  19. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Good morning Cy!

    Up early today?
     
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