07 APR 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Ludicrous Returns, Mar 31, 2024.

  1. Ludicrous Returns

    Ludicrous Returns New Member

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    Hello Everyone,

    My apologies for the time off since the last newsletter update. I am now back from my vacation time in Florida. I hope to still share my research and my model trades in case it helps in your own investments.

    Stocks recently sold: AEVA, AI, ALGN, AMD, ASPN, ATHA, AUDC, AVIR, BEAM, CCCC, CDLX, CDNA, ROX, DRCT, DVN, GKOS, GRPN, HYLN, IPSC, JMIA, KOD, MHK MSTR, NET, NTNX, NXT, POWL, RDWR, SPRB, SQ, TARA, TATT, UGP, VMEO, VTEX, WIRE, XOS

    Most of these should be no surprise from the stop sell prices set. However, I’d like to point out a few less obvious sells. I sold ASPN since it is showing greater than 10% vertical line declines, more than two over a 3 month period. I figured it’s better to take chips off the table then get stock losing a portion of the stock value.

    On 3/22, JMIA 10D average line (10-day simple moving closing average and plotted on a one-year time span) formed a decline that is less than 25% from a vertical axis line. This is a signal to put in a market sell and is an indicator of poor performance ahead. My apologies my vacation caused a delay in sharing this message.

    On 3/19, KOD 200D average line (200D simple moving closing average) formed a first decline from former closing day 200D average. This is a signal to sell at next market day open. I expect further deterioration of the stock pattern ahead.

    SPRB: My deep apologies. That straight down correction of 80% on 3/14 I did not see coming. This is a case example that shows while there is a lot of upside potential in new biotechnology microcap stocks, there is a lot of downside risk.

    XOS: Since this one has fallen into a 6-month to one-year horizontal pattern of the stock price, this is a good time to sell this stock.

    MSTR: This has now hit a sell trigger. I am going to sell and keep the astronomical profit since the buy back on 11/7, I purchased the stock at 469.08 on 11/8 market open. If the open is close to the last price of 1699.99, that will be a 262% gain over the purchase price.


    Sell Now Triggers: ADTH


    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:

    UEIC, STRC, PYPL, SMG, NTGR, DVN, SCCO, NX, AHCO, AAP, CENX, RZLT, STOK, DOV

    UEIC develops and manufactures sensor and control technology used in a variety of industries, including RF sensors, automation, and remote control systems. The company recently formed a new long-term buy technical signal on 3/20 as the 10D inclined and crossed an inclining 200D. The fact that the 200D is inclining is HUGE! If you look at the long-term chart, the 200D has not inclined since 2021 when the stock hovered around $ 45 / share, about 4.5x the $ 10 value today. In my opinion, this is a great buy opportunity.

    While STRC is a risky microcap stock, it does provide a service in the perfect “next big thing” industry, artificial intelligence and machine learning to enable robots to observe, learn, reason, and act, according to the profile on YahooFInance.

    NTGR is a great company making communication equipment, which will be needed to power huge amounts of data that will need to be transferred to enable the AI evolution.

    Even though inflation has stabilized a little, new car prices since 2019 have risen to unsustainable levels. Coupled with the high cost of EVs and hybrids being well out of reach for most middle income households, I look to auto parts as an industry with high organic growth. On 3/18, AAP 200D moving average started to incline for the first time since January 2022, marking a buy on the Ludicrous Stock Model. This is a great technical analysis buy opportunity.


    New Buy Now Triggers (3/29): IRTC, RH, ZWS, TPH, MG, MU

    If you look at the revenues of medical device maker iRhythm Technologies (IRTC), you will see there is plenty of year over year growth. It’s no surprise. The company develops continuous and mobile cardiac monitoring devices and services, a space with plenty of organic growth in the years ahead. When the technical analysis lines up with the fundamentals as it did on Friday, it presents a great buying opportunity.

    RH is a great stock, selling luxury furniture. After huge growth in the covid years, this stock laid low. However, on Friday 3/29, a new life cycle buy opportunity has occurred as the 10D inclined and crossed above the 200D.

    ZWS specializes in quality water testing, which is definitely another industry with organic growth.

    Home builder TPH appears to have broken out of a horizontal pattern, triggering a buy on my Ludicrous Returns stock model.

    MG is a micro-cap stock, with a market cap at $ 292 million. The stock currently is not making earnings yet, however, you can observe revenue growth in the financials. This company specializes in pipe line inspection and maintenance services. There are plenty of older pipelines in the US that present long-term organic growth.

    As reported in both WSJ and IBD this past week, MU is really enjoying revenue growth from the AI revolution. I expect growth ahead, my model has detected a buy.

    Stocks close to a buy trigger (3/29)
    AA, ADCT, AENT, AEVA, AIRG, BALY, BAX, BEEM, BGS, BYND, CBAT, CLFD, DQ, ENPH, FLO, GCO, GNRC, GOSS, HRL, HTOO, HYFM, INGN, ILMN, IAC, HYLN, ITOS, LUMN, MASI, MRKR, KNLA, NEE, NKLA, NWL, OTTR, OUST, PRPL, RMD, SEE, SLDP, SRTS, SSTK, TARA, THRM, TTGT, TUP, UIS, UPST, UTZ, VAC, WFC, WATT, ZI

    Lidar sensor maker OUST recently experienced some high volume in conjunction with a sharp stock price incline. It appears the buy trigger is almost set, as the 200D showed an incline on 3/28. Look for the 10D to incline and cross above the 200D to complete the buy, which appears likely to happen in the next day or two.

    DQ AND ENPH are superstars in the solar industry. These stocks appear to be forming a soon to buy signal that coincides with long-term growth expected in the solar industry.

    SEE is a sealed air and container company is very close to forming a long-term buy opportunity. Look for the 200D average to show it’s first incline over the former closing day 200D average.

    My Current Holdings (3/29)
    Updated stop sell orders calculated from technical analysis model output. Stop sell price in paranthesis.
    AAP (67.22), AHCO (9.53), APP (61.86), AZZ (60.69), BLCN (24.62), BSX (56.43), CAT (297.31), CDRE (33.27), CENX (13.55), CGNT (6.87), CHKP (151.89), CLS (41), COIN (204.81), DASH (114.29), DIS (106.06), DKS (173.07), DOV (148.13), DVN (46.97), ELF (162.80), EME (270.35), ENSG (113.76), ETN (245.18), FATE (6.36), GWRE (108.70), HBI (4.57), HPK (14.93), HRTX (2.46), HUBB (347.94). IBM (163.81), INFA (30.34), INO (10.13), IR (73.94), ISRG (65.58), META (394.23), MOD (81.41), MSFT (388.44), NEU (544.41), NKTR (0.70), NMR (5.06), NTGR (14.24), NVDA (803.37), NX (32.65), OSG (5.34), PRAX (45.39), PWR (218.73), PYPL (61.59), QTWO (43.21), RELX (39.30), RZLT (2.06), SCCO (90.06), SMG (58.15), SPXC (94.33), STOK (12.35), STRC (1.63), SWIM (3.01), TDG (965.37), TGT (134.81), TNDM (25.85), TOST (19.77), TT (235.40), UBER (69.78), UEIC (9.00), V (255.55), VMC (235.58), VRNS (45.34), VRT (66.72), VST (55.73)
    Quantity of current Holdings: 71

    New Stock Buys 6

    New Stock Quantity 77

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 79.2% invested in stocks, and 20.8% in cash (prior to the 6 new buys)


    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is green. For portfolios restricted to equity index ETFs, I recommend to be fully invested in equity at present time.


    Happy Investing,

    Ludicrous Returns
     
  2. Ludicrous Returns

    Ludicrous Returns New Member

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    07 APR 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

    Stocks recenTly sold: CGEN, ELF, NOTV, RH, VRNS
    On 4/2, CGEN formed a vertical spike while crossing the 50D simple moving average. When this occurs and falls 6% below the 50D average, or in this case, the recommended stop sell of $ 2.41 occurred on 4/2. It is now advise-able to wait for better technical pattern before buying back into this biotechnology stock.

    On 4/4, ELF stock price decreased, crossing the model stop sell price of 162.80.

    On 4/4, NOTV stock price plunged. Luckily, the model stop sell price of 8.06 prevailed saving capital vs. the latest close at $ 7.14. (Stop sell price was advised on last week newsletter)

    On 4/4, newly purchased RH took a nose dive. The stop sell price of 293.49 is above latest closing price of 278.39. It’s going to now take a technical pattern regrouping for the model to purchase the stock again.

    Sell Now Triggers (4/5): AHCO, BLCN, ENSG, HBI, NTGR, PYPL, STOK, V
    On 4/5, AHCO 200D level is 9.55, which is the same level as the 200D 6 weeks aga on 2/23. This violates the stock model 200D flatness rule triggering a sell. NTGR also falls into this category. NTGR also displayed the flat 200D syndrome, with the 200D of 13.64 only being 1.1% above the 2/23 200D 13.49. My research over a 50-year period led to a discovery that health stocks will involve a 200D that is inclining at least 1% per month, or 1.5% in a 6-week period. If a 200D is flatter than a 1.5% per 1.5 month growth rate, it’s a high probability indicator of poor performance in the intermediate term.

    On 4/5, the 200D simple moving average declined vs. the former trading day for PYPL and STOK triggering action to sell per the Ludicrous Returns stock model. For example, AHCO 200D dropped from 6.05 to 6.04 after market close on 4/5.

    While block chain is hot, the latest pattern is showing not so much so for BLCN. It is showing a lot of erratic sharp downward spikes. Model is indicating to sell and deploy that capital somewhere else or a better time to buy into equities.

    HBI and V are showing some bad pattern attributes per the model, triggering a low performance score which is another indicator channel to sell.

    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:
    4/1 OUST With the small correction that occurred this past week, there is still ample time to take advantage of this great growth potential opportunity on this company that develops lidar sensors. Even without autonomous vehicles, there is still huge opportunity with safety features that come on every vehicle today, and autonomous forklifts and plant and warehouse carriers that need these sensors.

    New Buy Now Triggers (4/5): AA, AIRG, XOM

    Stocks close to a buy trigger (4/5)
    ADCT, ADTH, AENT, BALY, BAX, BE, BEEM, BZFD, CBAT, CDNA, CLFD, CRDL, CWEN, DQ, ENPH, FLO, GCO, GNRC, GOSS, HRL, HTOO, HYFM, INGN, ILMN, HYLN, ITOS, KSCP, LITE, LUMN, MASI, MRKR, NEE, NKLA, NNVC, NTR, NWL, OTTR, PRPL, RMD, SEE, SLDP, SRTS, TARA, TTGT, UIS, UPST, UTZ, VAC, WFC, WATT, ZIM

    My Current Holdings (4/5)
    Updated stop sell orders calculated from technical analysis model output.

    Current model owned stocks as of 4/5 (stop sell price):

    AAP (76.62), APP (63.69), AZZ (61.31), BSX (56.80), CAT (297.31), CDRE (33.54), CENX (13.80), CGNT (7.07), CHKP (152.45), CLS (42.27), COIN (213.09), CRH (68.15), CRM (278.95), DASH (117.40), DIS (106.06), DKS (174.20), DOV (148.85), DVN (47.04), EME (280.11), ENSG (113.76), ETN (250.11), FATE (6.37), GWRE (108.86), HPK (14.96), HRTX (2.50), HUBB (347.94). IBM (177.30), INFA (30.86), INO (10.33), IR (74.43), ISRG (365.58), META (396.71), MOD (83.78), MSFT (388.44), NEU (573.74), NKTR (0.97), NMR (5.06), NVDA (820.59), NX (35.22), OSG (5.60), OUST (7.30), PRAX (46.47), PWR (219.04), QTWO (43.93), RELX (40.27), RZLT (2.07), SCCO (90.06), SMG (58.44), SPXC (95.30), STRC (1.80), SWIM (3.02), TDG (1098), TGT (148.57), TNDM (26.20), TOST (19.79), TT (236.76), UBER (70.89), UEIC (9.04), VMC (235.58), VRT (68.96), VST (57.51), ZWS (30.75)

    Quantity of current Holdings: 74

    Less: New Sells -7
    Plus: New Buys 3
    New Stock Quantity 70

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 84.5% invested in stocks, and 15.5% in cash (prior to new sells / buys)

    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is green. For portfolios restricted to equity index ETFs, I recommend to be invested in equity at present time.

    Happy Investing,
    Ludicrous Returns
     
  3. Ludicrous Returns

    Ludicrous Returns New Member

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    14 APR 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

    Stocks recently sold: NTGR, V, CDRE, CGNT, AAP, FATE, GWRE, HPK, IRTC, PRAX, SMG, SWIM, TPH
    4/8: V stock encountered a low model performance score as 10D joins the SP to cross below the 50D
    On 4/9, a model rule called SPP24B featured stop sells of 33.50 on CDRE and 7.07 on CGNT.
    On 4/10, a lot of sell triggers occurred, including AAP, FATE, GWRE, HPK, PRAX, SMG, and SWIM. AAP Sold at 76.50, just under the 76.62 stop sell order. GWRE, HPK, SMG, and SWIM featured bad stock pattern attributes, driving a sell. The 10D of PRAX stock featured a 10D decline angle that was less than 25 degrees from the vertical drawn one day prior to 4/10. This is an automatic sell under the stock model R4 rule.
    On 4/11, TPH featured an official 4-6 month horizontal pattern, driving a sell.

    Sell Now Triggers (4/12):
    AIRG, DIS, DKS, HRTX, IBM, NEU, NX, OSG, OUST, RELX, TNDM, TOST, UBER, UEIC
    Sell triggers: On 4/12, AIRG 200D average was $ 4.12. 1.5 months earlier on 3/1, the 200D was 4.07. The current 200D is only 1.2% above the former 1.5 month 200D. This triggers a sell rule on the Ludicrous Returns stock model.
    The other stocks are displaying bad pattern characteristics associated with a high probability of poor performance ahead. The technical analysis performance scores are surpassing the threshold and activating the sell now trigger. It’s better to sell now, let stocks correct and buy back in precarious times likes these.

    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:
    There were no new model buy triggers this past week. The opportunity for investing in stocks has diminished at this time.

    New Buy Now Triggers (4/12): No new buy triggers

    My Current Holdings (4/14)
    AA (29.57), APP (65.67), AZZ (61.75), BSX (62.87), CAT (321.15), CENX (14.09), CHKP (152.82), CLS (43.47), COIN (236.71), CRH (76.26), CRM (280.48), CTLT (51.71), CYBR (243.01), DASH (120.31), DOV (158.86), DVN (47.20), EME (281.64), ETN (251.87), HUBB (347.94), INFA (31.61), INO (10.58), IR (84.91), ISRG (365.58), META (460.28), MG (8.40), MOD (86.09), MSFT (388.44), NKTR (1.22), NMR (5.59), NVDA (837.65), PWR (220.98), QTWO (44.81), RZLT (2.09), PDYN (1.92), SCCO (90.06), SPXC (96.17), TDG (111.21), TGT (165.79), TT (260.95), VMC (244.34), VRT (71.24), VST (59.24), XOM (107.18), ZWS (30.75)

    Updated stop sell orders calculated from technical analysis model output.
    Quantity of current Holdings: 59
    Less: New Sells -14
    Plus: New Buys 0

    New Stock Quantity 45

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 69.3% invested in stocks, and 30.7% in cash (prior to new sells / buys)

    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is borderline green. It appears the S&P500 index 10D simple moving average is declining steep enough to drive caution. It is likely that within a day or two, the index 10D moving average will decline at a rate that is less than 30 degrees from the vertical, signaling a red zone for equity market index. The model does not purchase stocks in a red zone, and stop sell orders become more stringent. This could the start of a reset period for investing. While this sets up losses to recognize in the short term, the logic will help you have plenty of dry powder to invest on the next new up-turn. New buy triggers will then form.

    Happy Investing,
    Ludicrous Returns
     
  4. Ludicrous Returns

    Ludicrous Returns New Member

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    21 APR 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

    Stocks recently sold:

    AIRG, APP, CLS, COIN, CRH, CRM, CTLT, CYBR, DIS, DKS, HRTX, IBM, INO, ISRG, MOD, MU, NEU, NKTR, NVDA, NX, OSG, OUST, RELX, PDYN, TGT, TNDM, TOST, UBER, UEIC, XOM

    On 4/12, AIRG 200D average was 4.07, which is 1.2% less than the 200D of 4.12 on 3/1 (6 weeks prior). When a stock 200D change over 6 weeks is less than +/- 1.5%, it is an action to sell on the Ludicrous stock model. UEIC triggered the 200D flat sell rule on 4/12 as well.

    CLS sold at the last weeks stop sell price target of 43.47 on 4/16 (Model rule R75 rule).

    COIN sold at price target 236.71.

    CRH sold at 76.72 on 4/18.

    Pretty much all the other stocks on the list sold at their designated stop sell rules.

    DIS, DKS, HRTX, IBM, NX, OSG, OUST, TSN, & UBER had stock patterns that deteriorated to a technical analysis level activating a sell. One of the things that helped nail in the casket for IBM, OSG and UBER is the 10D line declining and crossing below the 50-Day average line. UBER had a good run. The model purchased uber at 50.04 after buy was triggered on 11/7/23. I sold the stock at market open on 4/16 after the 10D declined below the 50D.

    MNMD, I may have missed the sell signal on this one. This was first evident on 4/12, when the stock price declined to a low of 9.67, which is an 11.3% decline from the former stock price peak of 10.90. This is the second sharp stock price spike-like decline that declined greater than 10% from peak to low in a 3-month period. The other occurred on 3/12/24, where the closing low of 7.86 represented a 19.0% decline from former peak of 9.70.

    MOD sold on 4/17 at a price of 86.09 under one of my favorite stock model rules, the R75 rule. This stock had a very good run, the buy trigger occurred on 11/9/23, with the model buying the stock at a price of 43.28 (market open on 11/10). The return on this stock investment is + 98.9%. That’s the thing I like about the R75 sell rule, it was configured to help retain profits earned before a stock quickly declines. We’ll see when the model says to buy back this great stock, which specializes in cooling systems for EV batteries. A little digging in the auto industry, you can find that battery cooling is a big challenge to help keep EV batteries safe and prevent over-temping. MOD is the perfect company for battery cooling solutions.

    NEU also deteriorated as the 10D declined below the 50D. Another negative factor, there are 3 10-D average sine wave peaks in a 4- month period.

    OUST: On 4/15, the 10D declined at an angle that is less than 25 degrees from a vertical line drawn on former trading day 4/15. When this occurs, the rule is to sell next market day open, or in this case sell at 7.48 (4/16 market open). Note, for stocks, the threshold is less than 25 degrees from vertical axis line. For the S&P500 index, the 10D decline less than 30 degrees is the threshold for a market equity index red zone.

    Sell Now Triggers (4/19):
    AA, VMC, ZWS

    Stock Model Rule SPP23, which is a consolidated technical analysis performance score, is driving a sell to these three stocks. The threshold for selling these stocks increases when market status is red. The model will only retain the stocks with the most technical strength in stock patterns when the market is in a red status.

    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:
    There were no new model buy triggers this past week.

    New Buy Now Triggers (4/19): No new buy triggers. As of Friday 4/19, the S&P500 symbol ^GSPC 10-day simple moving average was declining at a rate that is less than 20 degrees from vertical axis line. This is by definition a red zone status on the Ludicrous Market timing model. The rule is to not buy any stocks in a red zone.

    Current model owned stocks as of 4/21 (stop sell price):
    AZZ (69.90), BSX (63.14), CAT (325), CENX (14.67), CHKP (152.82), DASH (122.25), DOV (159.86), DVN (50.83), EME (299.32), ETN (281.91), HUBB (366.64), INFA (32.05), IR (85.52), META (464.48), MG (8.40), MSFT (390.46), NMR (5.63), PWR (227.12), QTWO (45.60), RZLT (2.81), SCCO (95.90), SPXC (109.12), TDG (1116.55), TT (272.19), VRT (73.34), VST (61.77)
    Quantity of current Holdings: 28
    Less: New Sells -3
    Plus: New Buys 0
    New Stock Quantity 25

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 36.2% invested in stocks, and 63.8% in cash (prior to new sells)

    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is RED. For portfolios with equity index funds, the market timing model repositions out of equity index funds and into cash. Until the market flashes a yellow or a green status again. I will send an update when the market timing model repositions back from cash and into equity.

    Happy Investing,
    Ludicrous Returns
     

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