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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    This is a thread for anyone who wishes to post and discuss charts using pure Wyckoffian technique.

    As the founder of the thread I would ask that you leave your lagging indicators and hit-or-miss chart patterns (double tops, head & shoulders, etc.) at home. One, maybe two MAs will be tolerated, but basically charts should consist of price, volume, drawn lines, text, and not much more.

    Under most circumstances fundamentals, corporate reports, analyst reports, or news releases should NOT be discussed on this thread, including personal opinions in that regard. Disclosing the date and time of earnings reports or other important event dates is fine, but please, no discussion about them. Everything they allow you to know and more is distilled into the price and volume action. The only exception to the above guideline would be to draw attention to how the composite man may be using the news to accomplish his goal.

    If you learned Wyckoff from VSA then please start your own thread or learn to translate your terminology into pure Wyckoffian.

    I don't expect the thread to be very popular as most are not willing to invest the time and effort required to understand market behavior, or they are not willing to give up the media lies they are fed on a daily basis, or they are content using mechanical analysis, but bear in mind the words of David Weis who once said about his time learning the brokerage business in the early 70s:

    "In those days when people spoke of the Wyckoff course they talked about it in hushed tones as if they didn't want too many people to hear about it. It was one of the best kept secrets."

    And from Wyckoff's course:

    I, therefore claim that:
    You need never read anything on the financial page of your newspaper except the table of stock prices and volumes.
    You need pay no attention to the news, earnings, dividend rates or statements of corporations.
    You need never study the financial or the business situation.
    You need not understand railroad or industrial statistics, the money market, the crop situation, the bank statements, foreign trade or the political situation.
    You can absolutely ignore all the thousands of tips, rumors, reports and especially the so-called inside information that flood Wall Street.

    You can discard all of these completely and finally.

    UNLESS YOU DO THIS YOU WILL BE UNABLE TO GET THE BEST RESULTS FROM YOUR MARKET OPERATIONS.

    ---Richard Demille Wyckoff (1931)


    Wyckoff Photo.PNG
     
    #1 Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2016
  2. boredlurker

    boredlurker New Member

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    Nice! A thread dedicated to pure Wyckoff. Reading thru Day Trader's Bible now...
     
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I've not read that book. Does it discuss Wyckoff?
     
  4. boredlurker

    boredlurker New Member

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    Written by Wyckoff himself. Google "day trader's bible" and you will find some .pdf files out there.
     
  5. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    Hi Onepoint
    compliment/congratulation for this thread I found very interesting....
    I already have read some of RW passages and I begin to like it... I will DD further for I always like to read new "ideas" many times little here and there improve further my strategy ;):)
     
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Wyckoff's ideas are not exactly "new" he was writing back before 1910. But I understand; he is new to most. If anyone is the father of technical analysis it was Wyckoff. He was the first to use the terms "support" and "resistance" for example. Most mechanical methods of technical analysis have at their roots the ideas first published by Wyckoff.
     
  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I am being newly introduced to Wyckoff. Can I ask what you see here in SKX?

    [​IMG]
    Last 3 earnings reports have been red days, but lower volume. If it matters, prior to this the stock went $15 to $55, and now at $30. Is this being accumulated by the CM, with volume drying up? And then the CM will push it back over $55 because they have prior proof that it can go that high?
     
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the target and explanation. It makes sense to me since I think the market is in for a bit of a rough spot. I was thinking 25 was the bottom, but I won't assume it's a certainty.

    I'm reading the pdf, I'll be on the look out for Phase 2/Phase 3. Knowing a stock is in erratic phase can stop a lot of pain.
     
  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Your disclaimers are full of so much WIN! The irony is that we need masses to pay attention to all the things they shouldn't - to give us our edge. Hope things are well with you @Onepoint272 !
     
  10. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    GPRO.JPG View attachment 1044
    GPRO is definitely not an easy name for anyone attempting to get long-term long. I wanted to zoom in on the action from 4/26 when you posted about adding to your position. I used a three month chart (my apologies about the volume profile - I can't trade without it). There are three important sequences I've noted:

    1. Your idea to add on the re-test of the breakout wasn't necessarily wrong. The problem is the "reaction" off that level. DEMAND volume was minor compared to the increase in SUPPLY when it sold off to the support line. Anyone who bought a new position here should have bailed on a breakdown of the support, as the big rally from 4/13 was actually "distribution".

    2. Sell climax volume with a candle showing clear-cut absorption of shares (at the very least a lot of covering). The open of the next candle was important. An open higher than the previous close would indicate most of the SUPPLY was soaked up. This was not the case as the stock went on to secondary lows. At this point we would looking for a point where the SUPPLY dries up before taking a long.

    3. SUPPLY finally dries up on May 18th. Notice the blatant decrease, which was smaller than the volume on the previous upthrust bars when rallies were attempted. One could have bought on that down day or waited for confirmation the next day when the volume of the ensuing rally showed DEMAND > SUPPLY. Personally, I'm not super aggressive so I commonly wait that one extra bar.

    If GPRO ends up jumping back inside of the range above 11.15, on a much longer time interval (weekly) the move down will have proven to be a spring.
     
    #10 Rock Sexton, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
    Onepoint272, Ciao (Sheppy) and sammy like this.
  11. sammy

    sammy New Member

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    【Micro-Distribution in Accumulation】 Just my humble view
    GPRO Case Study.jpg
     
  12. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Great stuff @sammy ..... good to see another trader overlaying profiles (volume or market). I've long maintained that if they existed when Wyckoff taught his method - he would be overlaying them on all his charts as well. It's helped me tremendously with not getting suckered into phony breaks from creeks when I should have been looking for thrusts to trade in the direction of the trend.

    There is most definitely a "base" forming. However, the "structure" of this move down remains long term bearish until the day the 14.30-14.40 level is broken. Gotta let the stock prove it's ready to break out of the base. Obviously trades can be taken within the range using mechanics pointed out by both yourself and onepoint.
     
    #12 Rock Sexton, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 26, 2016
    sammy likes this.
  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    If someone is able to scale in definitely.

    I personally just don't trust the stock. I've seen way too many fake-outs and been fooled by this name too many times in the last 6-8 months .... not to mention misleading SOS like that move on 4/13.
     
  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Boooooom. She hit the 12.40's today.

    Great job holding OP!
     
  15. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    No doubt.

    I personally never take trades unless there's confluence between the daily and weekly charts.
     
  16. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    GPRO with the beat on earnings, showing lighter losses than expected and a pledge to be profitable by Q4. With such glowing guidance, keep an eye on the previous 1 year POC that is back at 18 over the next 2 quarters.

    Again, great job holding this one OP.
     
    #16 Rock Sexton, Jul 28, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2016
  17. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    14.74 now!

    Somehere OnePoint is sipping champagne on his yacht named GoPro.
     
    #17 Rock Sexton, Aug 8, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2016
  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for this notebook. I bought in GPRO last week after it was up +3% early 8/2 morning, but ended the day -3%. So I was -6% in one day, felt sorta like a dummy, but I thought back to this notebook and knew I had to hold.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    We're seeing similar things.

    If you're curious - I posted about it over in the TWTR thread: http://stockaholics.net/threads/twtr-twitter.23/page-8#post-20735

    In my opinion, the $23.50 area is still of major importance (the final print of 2015). The POC last year was the mid $36 level, which happens to be in the vicinity of your PnF target. ;)
     
  20. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    GoPro @ 16.22 right now. The close was 13.02 on the day I made the above comments.

    I posted an update in the GPRO thread: http://stockaholics.net/threads/gpro-gopro.37/page-4#post-20922
     
    #20 Rock Sexton, Aug 15, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2016

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