OK here we go. Critique away fellas! Wasn't 100% sure on the SC as a candle chart clearly shows May 2017 and even thought time isn't a factor - the volume on the area above October 2016 looks more like it.
I see where you are getting your starting point of 35.50...from what I would call the Back up to Creek (BUC). That would be liberal. But I think you are conservative on your call of the SC. I would put the SC in January 2017. Check this out using a box size of 75 cents. It provides more definition of that trading range in the 20s and 30s.
Awesome. I think you saw my first post (which I removed) where mistakenly used that BU instead of the LPS. Good to know it's OK to experiment with the box sizes - that's what I've been doing for the last hour or so. These PnF's seem to confirm something I always mention and that's when the tide turns the market backfills prior "exuberance".
Nope, I didn't see your first post. That TWLO has a beautiful chart, too bad I missed it. When I pulled it up I found that I had done some work on it quite awhile ago but like so many, it got forgotten. Here is the latest holdings of the FFTY (the IBD 50 ETF). Twitter moved to #1 . That's no surprise to us, but I wonder if they sold some today. Jrich might be happy to see Old Dominion in slot #32. I didn't even know they were publicly traded.
My bad. I changed my chart, but forgot to change the writing of the measurements LOL. I have the arrow pointing from that 23.50 level though. As for TWTR, somebody sold off a decent amount. I saw it on live on the T&S today (153k block of share at $47.60) and you can also see it on the 2hour/4hour charts. I think you saw my post on it in the TWTR thread, but it coincided with a significant VAH in the volume profile. Either way what an awesome ride. You still holding? Btw I was an idiot and punked out of TWLO literally a week or so before the explosion. Wanted to backhand myself.
Yep, I'm still holding TWTR. As I posted there, I was just too busy today to even catch the close; which I see is not pretty. As you may recall, my P&F objective is 55 to 56, so I'm thinking this reversal day will mark preliminary supply (PSY) and the SC is yet to come. On TWLO, I've been there (ala AMD). They really slammed TWLO on that last spring. With benefit of hindsight its easy to see now how that retest of that spring would have been a great buy point.
I dunno why I didn't go back to look at TWLO. Pride got the better of me I guess. I'll probably try to jump back into TWTR on the pullback.
Here let me try to contrast what I do already with my attempt to learn PnF. Below are charts of Allergan (AGN) and as you can see they both seem to indicate a similar target. Volume Profile with Positive Divergence and elements of Wyckoff Measure the Volume Profile from peak to bottom Use positive divergence to identify that bottom along with volume cues PD is essentially just secondary testing Outer edges of the VP curve are labeled VAH and VAL with the POC (Point of Control) Price activity below the VAL could easily be deemed secondary testing and if it pops back inside of the VAL that would imply a "Spring" Smaller volume profile placed over the current bounce off the bottom to determine legitimacy and it confirmed a breakout above its own VAH Re-entering an old profile curve commonly leads to reversion trades back to the POC (depends on the shape) Profile shape is a "P" which favors longs and short covering The stem of the "P" confirms lack of supply at those lower levels Abbreviated Wyckoff with PnF
Don't have time to post the chart, but SFIX is trying to break out of 7-8 months worth of accumulation. They IPO'd this past December. The Spring seems to have confirmed on 5/29 PnF target of 19 + (17 x 0.5 x 3) = 44.50 They knocked it out of the park on the June 7th earnings report: Stitch Fix (SFIX) reported 3rd Quarter April 2018 earnings of $0.09 per share on revenue of $316.7 million. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.03 per share on revenue of $306.5 million. The company said in its shareholders letter it expects fourth quarter revenue of $310.0 million to $320.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $315.6 million for the quarter ending July 31, 2018.
DLTH. I jumped in yesterday and quickly jumped out - hate buying into a 5 day rally. Of course it's up another 5% today. When try to wait for a decent dip I never seem to get them. PnF measurement 17+(27 x 0.25 x 3) = 37.25
Man it was a wild day on SFIX. Rumors of Oprah taking a stake ran it from $25 all the way to $29.90. Representatives of Oprah's denied the rumor, but I still like the upside. This is one of the highest beta's I've ever owned. It can seriously move 10% in a blink of an eye, especially since it's a recent IPO with no long-term chart history.
@Onepoint272 - am I doing this right? Stock is IGT. I used the 20 ATR which gave me .85 box size so I rounded down to .75x3 Looks like a stepping stone-ish pattern up to the 40s as long as this is the LPS:
Your math looks right. But you lose a point for not correctly showing your work. You should have a "+" sign in your formula, e.g., 22.50 + (8 x 0.75 x 3) = 40.5. Your box size of 75 cents works but I prefer 50 cents. To be honest this is very cyclical and therefore a very difficult chart to calibrate with P & F and I don't like it mainly because the supply is not drying up. I suppose an argument could be made that the boyz are bag holding (holding a bag under support and letting the weak holders dump their shares into their bag). But I'm wary and would need to study up on that. I think if they were wanting to bag hold they'd push it lower, under 23.34. So, with a bearish assumption I'm getting a P&F price objective of $7.50. I'll think on it some more and let you know if I have a change of mind in the meantime maybe some of the other Wyckoff students can give a more optimistic opinion. Weekly:
I like the looks of DLTH too, so i got me some today.. Half position (as always) at $24.55 I came up with a different target using a 50 cent box, mine is even more generous.... Also noticed the short intetest is 52 PERCENT of the float!... That makes it kinda hard for more supply to come in, and could make for one hell of a squeeze!
There was analyst upgrade to outperform within the last week and based on that demand bar in early 2017 it certainly feels like it was being accumulated. My issue is that it's already up four straight weeks, which makes it higher risk for pullback (3 weeks is pushing it). It's another of those where I want in, but I'm trying to avoid parking my money.
