A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I believe BABA may be a ripe candidate for a Wyckoff Spring and the next leg up. Knowing the kind of business they run - it's hard to imagine their market cap doesn't continue to climb like AMZN's did.
    • Notice demand came back into the same price level last seen in August 2017
    • The demand volume bar exceeds the previous sell volume bar
    • I threw up the volume profile so we could see where 70% of the volume occurred in the TR between the value area low and value area high (POC is most active price)
    • If price jumps back inside of the TR then it would seem to confirm the spring and beginning of the next mark up phase
    BABA.JPG
     
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  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    It back-tested the creek and appears to have put in some stopping action on the daily chart.
     
    #322 Rock Sexton, Sep 15, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Okay, before I have to go, the 30-minute on NVTA looks good to me. The cumulative volume on that back-up was lighter than the advances and although I find it hard usually to make sense of closes, it did hold the highs at the close, absorption perhaps.

    Edit: LOL, now I see your post, I guess you're saying stopping action into the close. Hmmm, I will have to consider more, but have to go now...later.
    Edit2: Okay, I think you are saying SONC (not NVTA) "back-tested and appears to have put in some stopping action on the daily chart." Got it.

    upload_2018-9-15_11-40-51.png
     
    #323 Onepoint272, Sep 15, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2018
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I got stopped out of BABA in early August and have been waiting to get back in. At this point, on the daily, I'd like to see it test lower in the vicinity of the recent low to prove there's no more supply available. I agree though, it's looking really close to being ready.

    Daily:

    upload_2018-9-16_8-56-39.png
     
  5. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    CPB might be worth keeping one eye on... Climactic stopping action into a new range above the down trend channel, and that spring being swiftly rejected by the old supply line ... No clear LPS yet, but I count 13 points of cause built so far on a $1x1 p&f….. Added bonus, 3.39% divy while you wait

    CPB sept 16.png
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Welcome Moss and thanks but as for me, I'd say its half luck really. The rest is recognizing when the Composite Man (CM), aka Composite Operator (CO), the aggregate of the big money market participants, is done accumulating his line. Rock has a good eye for that.
     
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  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Here's another one for the flagpole, LPX. Of course they make housing materials which will be needed for the hurricane season, but they've been building cause in this re-accumulation range for going on a year now. This looks like a back-up to the creek to me. Last week it broke above the range and then the correction can't seem to get any traction. The base count projection is $54 and this stepping stone count is now giving $59. I think this is it. I may have to step in.

    upload_2018-9-16_21-33-45.png
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Campbell Soup is hmm, hmm, good. You're probably too young to remember those TV commercials. Anyway they've been beat down to a pulp and it does look good since they are down to a multi-decade-long stride line, except the weekly chart seems to indicate it may need a lot more cause for the bigger move.

    upload_2018-9-16_21-57-37.png
     
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  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Will post the chart later when I get some time, but I do believe DISH is ready.

    DISH.JPG
     
    #329 Rock Sexton, Sep 17, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
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  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Took my bread off the table on ALGN. The ease of movement down concerned me. Will be watching closely for a lower re-entry...hopefully.

    upload_2018-9-17_20-40-7.png
     
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  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Some of the wisdom of Richard Wyckoff:

    JUDGING THE MARKET BY ITS OWN ACTION

    The business of Wall Street is to finance corporations and to sell the
    securities — stocks and bonds — which result from this financing. Some securities
    are good; others not so good. Those who manufacture and sell them to the
    public know their value best. The public has comparatively little idea of their
    real value, except seasoned securities — those which have been on the market
    for a long time and which, therefore, have established earning power and intrinsic
    value.

    In every case the banker who does the financing and the dealers who help
    him distribute, have paid for their securities either in cash or in services, or
    underwritten them. The object is to market these stocks and bonds at as high
    prices as possible. This marketing is done through distributing houses and syndicates,
    by private sale, by public offering, and by means of listing on the stock
    exchanges.

    In the latter case, the stock is advertised by making it active on the tape.
    If the price be advanced, and the transactions made large, the activity attracts
    buyers, and those who are handling the stock are thus able to dispose of their
    shares.

    Sponsorship is continued after the market is thus made for a company’s
    shares. The bankers operate for themselves, or others operate for them. After a
    stock is floated, its sponsors try to create a stable market and support the price
    as well as they can without taking back too much stock. When it is thoroughly
    distributed and enough people are interested in the stock to make a market which
    takes care of itself, under ordinary conditions, the original banker, syndicate or
    sponsor may discontinue operations and turn attention to some other which
    affords a new opportunity for money-making.

    Other interests may begin operations in that stock. Generally speaking,
    there are usually one or more sponsors or large operators working in every
    stock. Sometimes there are many. These interests see opportunities for profit,
    accumulate a line, mark up the price when conditions are favorable, and then
    sell out. Or they may sell short, depress the price and cover.

    No one can deny that in Wall Street the, big fish eat the little ones.
    Large operators could not operate successfully without the large number of
    people making up the public; that is, if there were only ten big interests in the
    market and no public, these ten could only make a profit by dealing with each
    other. It would be difficult for one crowd to deceive any of the nine others. But
    when the public enters the stock market, the large operator's game becomes
    easier for him.

    Tape Reading and Chart Reading, enable one to detect and profit by
    these inside operations or manipulation; to judge the future course of stocks,
    by weighing the relation of supply and demand. This sometimes can be done
    from price movement alone, but if you consider also the volume of the
    transactions you gain an additional and vitally important helpful factor.

    By accurately judging this supply and demand, you are able to decide
    the trend of the whole market and of certain stocks; also which stocks to buy
    or sell, and, what is even more important, when to do so.

    You always aim to select the most promising opportunities; that is, the
    stocks which are likely to move soonest, fastest and farthest. You make no
    commitments without sound reasons, and you avoid undue risks.

    Whenever you study the tape or a chart, consider what you see there
    as an expression of the forces that lift and depress prices. Study your charts
    not with an eye to comparing the shapes of the formations, but from the
    viewpoint of the behavior of the stock; the motives of those who are dominant
    in it; and the successes and failures of the buyers and sellers as they struggle
    for mastery on every move.

    The struggle is continuous. The tape shows all this in detail. The charts
    enable you to pick the market apart and study whatever portion or phase of it
    you choose.

    Supply and demand may be studied on the tape of the stock ticker, and
    to even better advantage from charts.

    The tape is like a moving picture film. Every minute of the day it is
    demonstrating whether supply or demand is the greater. Prices are constantly
    showing strength or weakness: strength when buyers predominate and
    weakness when the offerings overpower the buyers. All the various phases
    from dullness to activity; from strength to weakness; from depression to
    boom, and from the top of the market down to the bottom — all these are
    faithfully recorded on the tape. All these movements, small or great,
    demonstrate the workings of the law of supply and demand. By transferring to
    the charts portions of what appears on the tape, for study and forecasting
    purposes, one is more readily enabled to make deductions with accuracy.

    And now that you are undertaking to learn this Method it is best that
    you prepare your mind for it by discarding most of the factors that you have
    heretofore employed in forming your judgment and making your decisions,
    such as: tips, rumors, news items, newspaper and magazine articles, analyses,
    reports, dividend rates, politics and fundamental statistics; and especially the
    half-baked trading theories which are expounded in boardrooms and popular
    books on the stock market.

    It is not necessary for you to consider any of these factors because the
    effect of all of them is boiled down for you on the tape. Thus the tape does for
    you what you are unable to do for yourself: it concentrates all these elements
    (that other people use as a basis for their stock market actions) into the combined
    effect of their buying and selling. You draw from the tape or from your
    charts the comparatively few facts which you require for your purpose. These
    facts are: (l) price movement, (2) volume, or the intensity of the trading, (3)
    the relationships between price movement and volume and (4) the time required
    for all the movements to run their respective courses.

    You are thus far better equipped than the man who is supplied with all
    the financial news, statistics, etc. from the whole world.

    I, therefore, claim that:
    You need never read anything on the financial page of your newspaper
    except the table of stock prices and volumes.
    You need pay no attention to the news, earnings, dividend rates or
    statements of corporations.
    You need never study the financial or the business situation.
    You need not understand railroad or industrial statistics, the money
    market, the crop situation, the bank statements, foreign trade or the political
    situation.
    You can absolutely ignore all the thousands of tips, rumors, reports and
    especially the so-called inside information that flood Wall Street.
    You can discard all of these completely and finally.

    UNLESS YOU DO THIS YOU WILL BE UNABLE TO GET THE BEST RESULTS
    FROM YOUR MARKET OPERATIONS.
     
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I added 2 longs today, SONC and LPX.

    Daily:
    upload_2018-9-19_3-1-27.png

    Daily:
    upload_2018-9-19_3-0-22.png
     
    #332 Onepoint272, Sep 18, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
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  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I scaled out a portion of my NVTA earlier this morning.

    Now here comes the tough part. Normally I would've been completely happy with taking it all off after my 14.17 position hit 18.30. I know what the PnF charts say for the target, but holding for however long it takes is always a journey.
     
  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    So this marks the second time in the last 3 months where a stock I'm in dumps a considerable amount of its big gains after Jim Cramer speaks. It happened with SFIX at the end of July and now with NVTA.

    None of that truly matters though. What does is having been up 30% in a stock and NOT being satisfied enough to take the entire position off, especially in lieu of the fact that the stock is up 300% since May and 100% in the last two months. I borderline feel like a greedy pig. I know we have a 51 target based on the PnF chart measurements, but if it's going to happen it's likely to take some time and nothing is ever guaranteed.
     
    #334 Rock Sexton, Sep 19, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2018
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  15. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of Cramer... I stole this one from the show... Ridiculous P&F target!... Bot this morning at $116.01, right off the top of the stepping stone and within stop loss distance of the axis line.... Goldilocks trade

    2018-09-20-TOS_CHARTS.png
     
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  16. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Ya that would be a huge gain LOL.

    Truthfully - after you assess the PnF do you ever feel like you're getting a bit ahead of yourself with such lofty targets even if the analysis seems sound?
     
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  17. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I do... And i am am yet to run one all the way to a target, even though about 90% of my winning trades so far have reached that target after i exited

    Its something im working on, and much easier said than done when you already have profit on the table... Its one thing to fear a loss, entirely another to fear losing a profit

    Its a confidence thing i guess, just using past trades to reaffirm what you think youre doing... I just tell myself "remember WWE"..... Right now im still holding DLTH after watching it dip 5 points, my target is 14 points ahead... We'll see what happens
     
    #337 Jrich, Sep 21, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2018
  18. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Absolutely, and especially in looking at history of "recent" significant market crashes (1987, 2000, 2008) and wondering if we're due for another, it amplifies that fear of losing a profit.

    I'm not a Wyckoff student, although I've enjoyed @Onepoint272 's journal. I'm wondering how the Wyckoff approach deals with these decennial market crashes? Is there any predictive power? Do the crashes erase months and years of Wyckoff charting data and you have to start analyzing anew after the crash?
     
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  19. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Youd just fall back on the same principles used to asses quality of ownership in individual stocks, and apply those principles to the index.... Supply vs Demand, Effort vs Result, Cause vs Effect

    Cause is measured in point&figure charts... For the SPX, there is a consolidation from 2014 to 2016 that has *cause* built for a potential *effect* to a target between 3310 and 3500 (by my count, counts can varry by starting/ending points and chart configuration).... So, judging the market by its own actions, i would expect a move to that area, until the markets actions give me a reason to think otherwise
     
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  20. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    "Do the crashes erase months and years of Wyckoff charting data and you have to start analyzing anew after the crash?"

    Also, not really, the crash is data
     

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