@Onepoint272 Was curious as to your thoughts on DAN. I created a thread about it already a couple months ago - but want to see if there is any confluence between my analysis and yours. The back-test of the creek showed low supply on the sell volume bars, but last week's candle leaves me feeling leery. They had earnings and beat on both top/bottom, also raised guidance - yet there was still that upper wick on above average volume.
@Onepoint272 I'm trying to get a better understanding of how you arrive at targets based on PnF charts. Got any pointers?
I am planning on taking a course from Roman Bogomazov. I have seen all his YouTube videos and find that wyckoff is the way to go to understand market structure and the underlying movements during consolidation Look forward to participating in this thread as I get more comfortable
That is great! Clearly you already get it; the lights are on in your house. I am constantly amused by the great number of investors and traders flailing around in the darkness with their earnings report theories, moving averages, indicators, and patterns but without having a clue as to the context of their respective markets. I'm sure some make money, especially in a directional market, then they are all geniuses, but I couldn't do it consistently, until I came into the light. Please feel free to post away; run something up the flag pole, or offer questioning criticism. Looking forward to it.
I've decided to not post to this journal any longer due to general dis-interest. I've also decided to delete all posts with instructive information and charts. I don't think most people who may have occasioned onto this site gave it a thought or a moment of curiosity which is unfortunate for them because a couple-hour introduction to Wyckoff can easily cost $1000. In fact when Wyckoff was still alive back in the early 30's he would charge $3000 just for his training manual, a huge sum for that time. In today's dollars using a 4% annual inflation rate that would be about $75,000. David Weis, a well respected Wyckoff student, practitioner, and teacher once said that when he started in the brokerage business, the Wyckoff course was spoken of in hushed tones as if they didn't want too many people to know about it. And rightly so, because it is the method that they, the brokerage houses, use to follow the big money; the real movers of markets. By this method one can understand how the big interests harvest money from the public on a continual basis all the while convincing the public that stock prices are a function of fundamentals and news events and any losses sustained are their own fault for not doing diligent research. However, the Wyckoff method is not the mechanical technical analysis often practiced and misused today, even though much of what is used by technicians has, at its origins, the concepts introduced by Wyckoff, just made easier, more automatic, more mechanical with unthinking triggers, and are therefore less rigorous and less reliable. Wyckoff scoffed at the folly of using mechanical techniques, indicators, and patterns just as he did fundamental analysis. In a nutshell the method is about reading the market by its own actions. Anyway, it is probably best that most people remain ignorant since I and other Wyckoffians trade with the big interests and must rely on there ability to harvest the sheep; they need lots of sheep to keep the lights burning in Manhattan and in the tallest buildings in every city around the world. Perhaps after I make my second million I might be persuaded to teach it. Be careful out there.
So you were hoping for other people to discuss Wyckoff with so your strategy is to delete all your posts from around the forum? Doesn't seem like the best strategy to lure others in. I've seenever 1 or 2 people say they planned on learning it and looked forward to your posts and bouncing ideas off you. The only thing I won't miss is the "I'm smarter and better than you and none of you deserve me around here" attitude. I enjoyed reading most of your posts, good luck wherever you land.
While I never use this strategy, I do enjoy reading what others have to say. You have to admit, this is a niche topic, but that is what makes the market great, there are 1000 ways to do everything. Thank you for your time and contributions.
I enjoy the posts. Living in the Information Overload Age, his posts were needed to show how useful the method was/is/could be. You've got to close new adherents not on the method, but on the idea that the method works. Then they'll go learn the method. Until then, it's just another method; there's just too much noise out there. I'm not sure if his attitude was of being better-than-everyone. There's smart people who can come off like that, because they get into a way of explaining/teaching something that has been ignored by the mainstream, and they don't know a reasonable reason why. So they start going after the fundamental flaws of humans, or whatever. They fundamentally prefer hearing a "good story" rather than trying to figure out how the story is getting told, because they don't see the possibility of predicting the story. (Perhaps) True, but his work I'm sure had some audience. Just got to figure out the way to get them to come over, which sometimes means doing stuff that you shouldn't have to rationally do.
New member named @Rishi_at_Tiingo will talk your ear off if you want to hear about quants and automation.
Geez -- sorry to be reading this @Onepoint272 -- as one of your thread lurker, here. As a fellow less-than-popular trade journal writer myself, I enjoyed the alternative perspective you brought to the board through this thread! Sorry it got to you, but thanks for your contributions up until now.
@Onepoint272 and anyone who could give their help I have a feeling that VUZI is in an accumulation range but I'm not sure because I'm not familar with accumulation that starts "at the top" Weekly chart: When I say "at the top" I mean when the accumulation range is entered from below. Where could the selling climax be? Do I just turn this picture upside down? But then the SOS in Phase D would be at the bottom of the range?
I believe what you are talking about is a re-accumulation trading range. The price is in an uptrend and has used up its cause, that is, the CM has sold off some, most, or all of his inventory and so he contains the price into a re-accumulation range to re-acquire shares from the public. As usual, the public weak hands need to be shaken out of the stock in order for a new mark-up phase to begin. So, instead of coming from a mark-down and printing a selling climax (SC), it comes from a mark-up and prints a buying climax (BC) and then instead of a short-covering automatic rally (AR) it does an automatic reaction (AR). The BC and AR mark the trading range boundaries. For VUZI (long-term) that happened back in early 2015. Since then it has been very volatile with multiple springs and upthrusts and is now marking down (shorter term) from an Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) but it hasn't shown a Sign of Weakness (SOW) which it needs in order to prove supply, since it came into the long-term range from demand, from strength. It does not need to show a sign of strength (SOS) since demand is already proven.
I'll take a crack at it Maybe a re-accumulation range from the previous mark up.... I highlighted the top of what looks like an accumulation range from June 2015 to July 2016........ So the upside you're looking at may be the end of that mark up Down here in more recent memory, there is definitely a new range... Volume is higher on the lows, and lower on the highs, which does hint at accumulation.... I agree, it's hard to pinpoint the selling climax... So I highlighted what I think is preliminary support, which is usually followed by the SC.... If so, the SC (and bottom of the range) is $5.85.... The AR puts the top at $8.70 The SOS hasn't appeared yet... But if the most recent low volume test turns out to be the LPS, then a 0.25x3 P/F shows me a target of $15.60 Now, hopefully @Onepoint272 will chime in and correct me if I got it wrong
Thanks Timbo, actually I just abandoned this thread and instead have been just posting on individual stock-threads. JRich, yep I think you posted right after I did. It appears we agree on the top of the long-term trading range except I show the BC during the last week of January, 2015 instead June 22nd. I would call June 22 the Secondary Test (ST). I think I'm in general agreement with your 0.25x3 P&F target of 15.60 also, that is, so far, and as you say, if this is the LPS. So, where will VUZI stop going down in the short term? Here is a $0.30-box by 1-box-reversal point and figure which indicates a price objective of $5.40. However, if it does not go directly there and instead builds more cause then it should go even lower.
