Breaking my own rule here by posting some mechanical stuff that I still check for my Long Term holdings. The mechanical rule is to get out of stocks when the12-month moving average rolls over and slopes downward. Not really necessary but as an aid to the eyeballs, the bottom oscillator shows a 2-month rate of change (ROC) of the 12 month MA. When that goes under the zero line it indicates the MA has rolled over. This simple technique gets you in and out fairly early. Combine it with Wyckoff knowledge and its even better. As you can see, the 12-month MA still has a positive slope but is flattening as best indicated by the ROC of the MA...the bull needs another up-month. Monthly S&P E-Mini Futures:
The futures jumped out of the gate printing a tall column of green Xs. I show enough short-term cause (on a 30-minute P&F) to effect a price to 2800. That's already been exceeded by a bit tonight. The base count gives a price objective as high as 2890.
It's gunning for 2818 and 2824.25. It'll probably have to build some more cause tonight and tomorrow to break those but when it does the longer outlook will turn bullish again. 4-hour (240-min) bars:
That's about right, as that was Q3's most active price based on volume. Panic drove it off that level and the market is now back-filling that panic.
It's good to have you weighing in again Rock. I think your old friend NVTA is ready to retest the September high. Have you been keeping up with it? If so, any thoughts? I went ahead and subscribed to the Pro-Plus plan on Tradingview (even though I'm not a pro) just for the intraday P&F charting capability. Here's NVTA using my new toy showing that after that spring it behaved nicely increasing volume on the up-waves, decreasing down, and an objective of 18.45. 30-min, 15-cent-box, 1-box reversal:
Rock, do you expect we'll see some profit taking going into that 2824 area on the ES possibly leading to a range-bound market for most of December?
I've kept it up on my ticker list. Does look like it completed a nice pullback on the weekly timeframe. I'll keep it on my list with ATUS and FEYE that I'm looking to add. For the time being I'm holding some recent positions in BABA and AMD.
November's volume profile was a bullish "P" shape. This is entails quite a bit of short-covering in anticipation of the China deal. Top end of the curve was 2789 for resistance. The level you're referring to is actually 1 standard deviation away from 2018's most active price level. Testing it for the third time this year likely leads to a breakout from it. A market makers job would ideally be to close the year out at the most active price level for 2018, which is 2726. In lieu of the China news and November's profile - I just don't see that happening.
I'm holding a little BABA too and about $5 underwater on it....but I like it. A ton of supply came out of it at the bottom and going into the spring volume dried up like a bone and then demand surged quickly. I have a count showing $228. That may be too liberal, but I'll be looking at it again. Edit: Okay, the conservative count gives 207. I'd take that. 30-min P&F - $1-box, 1-box-reverasal
@Jrich you looking for re-entry into DLTH? Sucker has been beast mode ever since dipping again back down into those 26's. Price is trading above the upper end of last quarter's volume profile and the one for November was bullish. Earnings coming up on 12/6.
Looks to me like the boyz used the China-Tradewar-Cease-Fire news to juice the futures Sunday night when and where a little capital goes a long ways, and then sold off everything else into the frenzy during the regular session on Monday. The ES was unable to break the November high at 2818. If its unable to do that the picture remains bearish. Note the largest down-wave volume since this rally began. If we don't see some follow thru to the upside on Tuesday then a test of the 2748 to 2729 area is likely I think. S&P E-mini Futures - 1-hour bars:
The 30-min Point & Figure shows the potential downside target as 2735 confirming range given above, 2748 to 2729. Upside potential showing as 2840, well above the bull/bear line of 2818. 30-min P&F, $5 box, 1-box reversal:
Over night the above 30-minute P:&F on the ES shows that 3 more columns of cause were printed. As of about 6:00 am Chicago-time, the upside and downside potential targets now stand at 2845 and 2705, respectively.
As of about 9am central, the upside potential on the ES 30-minute P&F moved up to 2855. The downside potential remains at 2705. The S&P-cash is tenuously testing the demand line of the up-channel on the 30-minute vertical chart.
Well forget what I said about the China news LOL ..... which just reinforces why I should stick to the technicals. Then again it wasn't really a full on new pact, as much as it was a temporary tariff stand-down order. Today the market pulled back all the way to 2018's most active price that I mentioned a few posts ago. It's also Q4's most active price to this point. Barring any wild market catastrophes I fully expect to close the year in and around that area.
Been a little distracted lately, i closed all my positions lil while ago planning to ride out the end of another break even year... But then today happened, and i think i found a quick opertunity to turn a little profit with my first live iron condor.... IWM, sold the $144 put and $150 call with $1.50 protection on either side... IV hit 26% just before the close... And as a bonus, ill collect one free day of time decay tomorrow.... If the $145 support holds, could be ez money to close the year green (exp Dec 28)
My watchlists got cluttered again, so i cut a few out including DLTH... Sure had a hell of a week end of November!... Might be going back on, see if it can hold that $30 level
Definitions of Supply and Demand or lack thereof as they relate to price-bar-action. Used to judge Effort versus Result. Demand being when buying is overcoming or absorbing sellers and Supply being when selling is overcoming or absorbing buyers.
