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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Stopped out of SBUX. Instead of reaching 66.50, the short term P&F count, in the reverse direction, appears to indicate 60.50.

    upload_2019-1-3_9-51-27.png
     
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  2. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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  3. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Couldn't resist jumping back on this one, rubbing an axis at 28.78... Short @ 28.33, stop 30.30

    Screenshot_2019-01-07-09-31-33.png
     
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Long term it has built enough cause for an upside objective of $136, but the trading range formed after weakness, that is, after a downtrend, so I would have liked to have seen more volume on this latest rally to prove demand by the big boys. Shorter term it appears the thrust of this rally is shortening (losing momentum). Today it got up to the price of the upthrust action of June 21st ($75.04) and the August highs and ran out of gas...a lack of demand at resistance. I think it might pull back. If it does you'll want to judge the character of the pull back. If it doesn't pull back and instead builds cause at the highs (forms a bullish flag) then the boyz may be absorbing sellers.

    65-minute bars:
    upload_2019-1-7_23-23-14.png
     
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  5. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Had to go short SPY here... Been watching the 2600 level, broken briefly this morning and slammed back down..... $2x3 p&f target from the Oct-Dec range is a bleak 2130, which would be ~27% off the high (and right back to the starting point in relation to the 2016 election)

    Note: SPX chart shown, but P&F count is from SPY chart

    spx jan 15.png
     
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  6. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Long RMD @ $117.55 (1/2 position)
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    The market has closed up 4 weeks in a row. That only happened twice last year, so it is due and it is coming into a confluence of resistance. A nice pullback would find support at the February low of 2529. However, the bear case can't be ignored yet at least not until it is above 2814. For the bear case, likely support would be found in the area of the top of the 2015/2016 trading range and at a long-term uptrend line, 2134.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-1-22_0-49-20.png
     
    #447 Onepoint272, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to own some Cameco for the long term. When you do the math alternative energy falls way short of meeting future energy needs. More nuclear fission plants are coming despite Fukishima. I'll wait until after the next market pull back.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-1-22_1-27-34.png
     
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  9. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    I also started a small position at $92.50. I think the ER was not as bad as the selling action suggests and as usual it's overdone.
     
  10. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Lucky i had a tight stop at 116, got booted out just before the blood bath
     
  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Moss I'm often wrong, but are you saying you are a better judge of the fundamentals than the big players who sold? :confused: Maybe you are, but I have to believe they have access to better information. In fact their selling may have had nothing to do with the ER. The biggest of the big may have already been out of the stock and the ER may have prompted the lesser wolves to exit once they realized the big dogs were not taking it higher. But even if you are right about the fundamentals, it doesn't matter because you, me, and all the joe sixpacks have no way to step in and stop the selling. The selling action these past 2 days was on heavy volume, a sign of weakness, showing that big interests exited their position and then no one of them stepped in to support the bottom of the trading range.

    You could end up being right, it could be just a shakeout, or you could very likely get a retest of the ice (the bottom of the trading range) but apparently there was enough cause built to potentially project price to $67. Be safe out there.

    $1-box by 3-box-reversal Point and Figure:
    upload_2019-1-28_22-33-19.png
     
    #451 Onepoint272, Jan 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2019
  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Short term the downside thrust has shortened on RMD and it could be building cause here for a short-term bounce....but the trend is still down.

    10-minute bars:
    upload_2019-1-28_23-47-40.png
     
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  13. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    Thanks @Onepoint272 - This is a short term play with a tight stop. I am expecting a bounce after all that selling. Also long term bullish on INCY (I brought it up earlier this month).
     
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  14. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    LRCX and AMAT showing signs of strength while other chip stocks getting hammered.... Not sure what to make of that, but worth keeping an eye on

    Screenshot_2019-01-29-08-15-23.png Screenshot_2019-01-29-08-17-27.png
     
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  15. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Big day for BA, on earnings beat and bureaucratic trade talks

    ba jan 30.png
     
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  16. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I thought I posted about SBUX a while back, but can't seem to find it.

    @Onepoint272 I'm thinking a big breakout is coming. I've got a (47 x .0.75 x 3) reversal coming up. Thoughts? This just looks classic Wyckoff spring material to big new highs.

    SBUX.JPG
     
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  17. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I get a $159 target on a $1x3..... Would be more convincing if the spring was on low volume, but the SOS looks legit, and approaching the high after retesting the range gives me a fuzzy feeling.... Added to watchlist
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Yup, basically the same target ...... which is why I wanted someone to talk some sense into me in case I was being ridiculous. LOL
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Jrich

    You may also like Lennar (LEN).

    I've got a (19 x 0.40 x 3) PnF measurement putting her back around 59 (the HVN - "high volume node") on my chart. At the very least a reversion to the POC ("point of control") seems obvious due the stock closing 2018 away from it.

    Market Makers love to backfill prior panic and this stock has never re-tested the breakdown from 52.00.

    LEN.JPG
     
    #459 Rock Sexton, Jan 30, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Guys I got about the same target on SBUX...$150 on a $1.50 box by 3-box-reversal. Rock, I think you may have posted something because I've been watching for awhile now, but it is also on my 60-stock Wyckoff position sheet. In fact I was in SBUX and got stopped out. Then the ER came and went and it didn't retest the low of that wide ER bar like I expected...so now just watching as it slips higher. At this point I'd like to make sure it can make a new high and prove this is not a UTAD. If it can decisively break higher I guess that would be a typical IBD/CANSLIM/cup&handle type of buy.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-1-30_22-20-52.png
     
    #460 Onepoint272, Jan 30, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019

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