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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    ^ Thanks Rock. Getting out is always harder than getting in.

    BIOS looks promising. It's been building cause since August 2015. A 15-cent-box by 3-box-reversal point & figure shows a liberal count of 37 columns from the LPS ($2.70) back to the SC giving a price projection to $19.35. Sounds crazy high but the July 2008 high was 17.62 and the April 2002 high was 22.95. Now that it has been accumulated by new sponsorship, 19.35 may not be so crazy.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-3-13_22-29-32.png
     
    #501 Onepoint272, Mar 13, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    So I only bought 500 shares of BIOS @ 3.50 near the close yesterday. I suppose the ER this morning would have been a disappointment on a bottom-line-loss worse than expected had it not been for the merger news, that BIOS is buying out rival "Option Care". BIOS has been trading around $4 pre-market.

    Edit: Well easy come, easy go. Trading down in the regular session just above $3.
     
    #502 Onepoint272, Mar 15, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Two in a row BACs that turned into UTADs after an ER (NIO and BIOS) . AGX appears to be working though.

    Daily:
    upload_2019-3-15_12-57-38.png
     
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  4. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of earnings... DG gave me a decent entry this morning, got in at $111.44, then it almost immediately went up to $114 when the analysts decided not to downgrade it, reinforcing my belief that the sell off yesterday was unwarranted...... Interesting fact, did you know that Dollar General has more locations in the US than Starbucks?.. I never woulda guessed that

    P&F work shows almost a 30% upside

    Screenshot_2019-03-15-13-50-06.png
     
  5. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Side note... BA really ate my lunch the other day:mad:... Think it was my biggest loss to date... Didn't have time to think, my stop kicked in at open and sold at $370 ($420 was my average in)

    Lesson learned... Decided to cancel my other stop loss orders and replace them with alerts... Thanks to @T0rm3nted for that advice a while back, even though i didn't listen:confused:
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    GIS had a nice ER surprise Wednesday morning and now approaching strong resistance. Watching for a back up. Paying a 4% dividend. Cause to 87.

    Daily as of Thursday's close:

    upload_2019-3-21_22-59-47.png
     
    #506 Onepoint272, Mar 22, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2019
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  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    LYFT's first day of trading in 5-minute sticks:

    upload_2019-3-30_6-44-9.png
     
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  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272

    As always - stay away from those trendy IPO's like Lyft until the insider lockup expiration in 180 days - if you're looking to hold long. That is typically when we see the final "flush" as employees can't take watching their gains continue to slip away. Then the old investors who sold during the start of the IPO re-enter again. It's basically a wealth transfer fueled by hype.

    Someone came to me a few months ago with an offer to buy in at the low 50's. I have no doubt it will see that price in the next 6 months.
     
    #508 Rock Sexton, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
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  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272 how about $PEGA?

    43.50 + (31 x 1 x 3) = 136.50
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Oh for sure, just demonstrating the application of Wyckoff principals in the short term. Day 1 shown on the chart above was a short opportunity that would've come thru as shown by Day 2 of trading below. The spring may look tempting for a long, but this needs to show a Sign of Strength before taking a long.

    5-minute bars:
    upload_2019-4-2_2-27-22.png
     
    #510 Onepoint272, Apr 2, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
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  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I like it. Both the larger (long-term) TR and the smaller TR have strength in the background, so no need for an SOS. Stop would be just under $62, I suppose.

    Daily:
    upload_2019-4-2_2-38-8.png
     
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  12. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Disney announces streaming platform to battle Netflix and blasts out of a 4 year TR on a 10% bump... P&F work shows potential ~150% upside

    dis apr 12.png
     
  13. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Bot DIS @ $130 at the close... Kinda getting a WWE vibe from this chart
     
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  14. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    Good find on SBUX. Following through pattern very nicely and also is fueled by the $25 billion they want to return in form of stock repurchase and dividends by 2020. (As part of this effort, they just completed an accelerated $5 billion stock repurchase between Oct'18 - Mar'19)
     
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  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    @Rock Sexton 's PEGA is looking nice. I wonder if he bought it. I wonder if I should buy it.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-4-14_18-10-14.png
     
  16. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I sure did.

    Currently holding SBUX, ATUS, NVTA, and PEGA.
     
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  17. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I didn't even know the actual figures as far as the return of equity to shareholders. But the simple math of it puts the stock price in the 100's upon completion - even if only half of that $25 billion is from stock re-purchasing. Adding in the chart - this position feels like common sense.

    EDIT: Ignore my previously fuzzy math. Based on the below article - the $5 billion accelerated repurchase program started on October 1st and was expected to be completed no later than March 2019.
    • The point of control for that time frame was $66.65
    • It would reduce the share count by roughly 75 million shares
    • Since the market cap doesn't increase - the share reduction produces a value of $81/share
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-corporation-accelerated-share-repurchase-120000353.html
     
    #517 Rock Sexton, Apr 15, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2019
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I added more SBUX today. Also still holding AGX, AXMIF, BABA, LUV, and NVTA in trading accounts.

    One of my long term (circa 1985) but relatively small holdings is 3M. The original shares I hold as a paper certificate, it's a beautiful document. I've been reinvesting the dividends all these years so that now far and away most of the shares are digital. Anyway, MMM got cut off at the knees today; down nearly 13%, the biggest single day drop since the 1987 crash. I'll probably never sell them though, just pass them along. Today's drop raised the dividend yield from 2.6% to 3.0%. Once the dust settles maybe I'll add. It'd be nice to see that div yield at 4% but the price would have to drop another 25%.
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    The market jumped all over that manipulated drop to 75 on SBUX.
     
  20. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Well, you'll pick up more shares on the DRIP.... always a bright side
     
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