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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    LRCX gave me a grin last week with a 6% pop on their ER... that puts me up over 21%, and as of right now my biggest dollar amount win yet (more than making up for my big BA loss)..... Hell, everything i have is up ~10%.. Good year to be long thus far.. Trump rally second wind??

    My current holdings:
    CSCO, CTAS, DG, LRCX, SBUX, DIS
     
    #521 Jrich, Apr 27, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    CINX knocked their ER out of the park this past Thursday. Definitely it is into the mark-up phase following re-accumulation with cause showing $192. Friday's action (see 2nd chart below) had difficulty making price gains given the volume, effort vs result. I'll wait a bit before jumping in.

    Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-4-27_23-0-58.png

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-4-27_23-22-10.png
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Leading and Lagging Spyders defined by weekly comparative relative strength (CRS) versus the SPY and more specifically if the 13-period MA of the CRS is above or below the 52-period MA of the CRS.

    XLB - Laggard
    XLE - Laggard
    XLF - Laggard

    XLI - Leader - just
    XLK - Leader
    XLP - Leader
    XLRE - Leader
    XLU - Leader

    XLV - Laggard
    XLY - Leader

    All of the leaders except the XLI are above the Fall 2018 highs. The XLI looks poised to break above them.
     
    #523 Onepoint272, Apr 29, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Yesterday, Monday, April 29th, the ES finally poked the HOD above the September High but it closed well below it. The volume (supply) of the reversal was light though so no evidence of supply overcoming demand. Potentially there is shortening of the upward thrust. If it gets under the 2339-area then it'll likely go down to the 2921-area. If not then it goes higher. I'm thinking it'll linger though until the Fed meeting concludes.

    2-HOUR bars (as of Tues ~7:15am CDT):
    upload_2019-4-30_7-33-33.png
     
    #524 Onepoint272, Apr 30, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2019
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  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I've owned a little MET for years and years and reinvest the dividends. I added some more to a ROTH just before the ER giving me a quick 3.8% annualized divvy. I believe it goes ExDiv tomorrow (Fryday) so I expect it will give back some of the price appreciation it made Thursday. FYI, they raised their quarterly dividend from 0.42 to 0.44, a 4.76% increase.

    Daily:
    upload_2019-5-2_23-48-38.png
     
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  6. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    added to CSCO today.. effort filling the recent gap, 20 million shares traded by 1:45 cst vs 24 million for the whole day on the bearish bar yesterday.. no result/follow through today, only ~20 cents under yesterdays close


    csco may 2.png
     
  7. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    what I see on the monthly... ~300% upside coming out of a 15 year long, nearly textbook accumulation range

    csco monthly.png
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of damage done so far this week but today, Tuesday May 7th, the ES rallied off the LOD going into the close of the regular session and continues so far tonight. The rally should extend into the 2920-area and then the downtrend will likely continue into 2814 support or perhaps 2738; still just a normal retracement.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-5-7_22-48-37.png
     
    #528 Onepoint272, May 7, 2019
    Last edited: May 7, 2019
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  9. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    In a bit of a pickle here... I found my exit for Lam, ~$220 is a level with overhead supply, with P&F target ~$246 that's a conservative spot to get out I think, really nice profit without leaving an excessive amount on the table... but the chicken in me doubts the ability to make a 20 point run from here in this market environment... Lam being a cyclical tech stock with international exposure if there ever was one, mostly Japan and South Korea but never the less submissive to China/US trade whims..... Conventional wisdom says a trade deal with decades of implications logically will not materialize the year before a major US election.. Xi may be many things, but hes not stupid (wish I could say the same for the people in charge of our country, but that's another topic for another forum)……. so, WWYD??… If I sell here, this trade would still be the biggest dollar amount win for me yet, but another 20 points a share would be nice too!

    lam exit.png
     
    #529 Jrich, May 8, 2019
    Last edited: May 8, 2019
  10. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    btw, my basis is $169.74... so its been a nice run either way:)
     
  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I can give you my non-Wyckoff opinion. You can never go wrong taking profit. However, I also think if you go into a trade with a plan, you should execute the plan, unless you get new information that gives you a reason to deviate from the plan. If you don't have the stomach to hold though, it's a pretty simple decision. You will be MUCH more mad if you end up holding for a loss than you will be if you sell now for a very large profit but could have made more. Kind of contradicting myself, but figured I'd chime in anyways.
     
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  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    You can draw a line connecting higher lows recently; LRCX is sitting right on it.
    More generally SMH is above the 50 ma.
    That is to say, the uptrend has not been broken with this pullback.

    In the S&P, it does not look like the bears are interested in pushing down right now, and Trump is keen on being re-elected so I'm not sure how hard he will be on China, and if anything there will be rate cuts next year.
     
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  13. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Sell half and keep half?

    Or sell your initial investment $ amount and keep whatever shares remain. [example: if you bot 20 shares at 169.74 for $3394.80, you could sell 17 shares at today's close of 199.71 for $3395.07, leaving you 3 shares absolutely free-n-clear. If LRCX goes up, you still have skin in the game. If it drops further, then buy another lot of 20 shares and do it all over again!]
     
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  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I don't like giving "exit" advice but remember, you asked for it.

    Just looking at the LRCX daily chart I don't see any reason to sell. The last retracement is not unusual, the last upward thrust was decent, and where's the supply? Nada. It rejected and appears to be holding previous resistance as support at 195.79.

    That said, the SMH did not hold its uptrend channel like LRCX. So LRCX is likely an industry leader. If it breaks lower, the next stop for LRCX is the 180 to 185 area which is stronger, better tested, support. Those 180 and 185 highs came from a longer stronger uptrend so they are more important and you could likely expect a good bounce off of that level.

    LRCX Daily bars:
    upload_2019-5-8_23-51-29.png
     
    #534 Onepoint272, May 9, 2019
    Last edited: May 9, 2019
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  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I was holding NVTA thru earnings and sold today. Still made a good profit but not as much as before the ER.
     
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  16. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for all the advice.. i wouldnt put y'all on the spot like that, but i litterally feel like a deer in headlights here, all i can do is stare at the bright shiny chart

    As said above, getting out truely is harder than getting in, and as im coming to understand, its probably the hardest part of trading period.... ive gotten it painfully wrong both ways is the not too distant past... watching WWE rocket up 300% after i sold, and watching 100% of my profit in ROKU evaporate via my inaction..... i always say failure is more useful than success, cause you dont learn anything from success... but its kinda hard to figure out what the lesson is from such mixed messaging :confused:
     
  17. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Another option i concidered was shorting AMAT as a hedge, since the two trade in lock step... but its divy and ER are both upcoming later this month.. so probably not the ideal at the time being
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    The worst is when you sell too early then find yourself in "revenge" trades entering on the way up, but getting stopped out on minor pullbacks because you kept your stops too tight.

    I still find myself doing that sometimes. I'm really confident in the targets but not wanting to assume the proper risk.
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Just for shits and giggles - @Onepoint272 and @Jrich what are your PnF base counts for Bitcoin from this recent breakout?

    I had 3500 + (27 x 50 x 3) = 7550 (on BitStamp BTC/USD)
    It hit a high of 7585

    2018's volume profile was very bearish ("b" shaped), yet 1st quarter 2019's was bullish ("P" shaped), which signaled to me that some short-term buyers were taking advantage of near term seller exhaustion in a 2 year down trend that had gotten a little bit ahead of itself. 2018's point of control was 6900, which it's attempting to straddle for support right now, but sell volume has increase tremendously signalling that shorts are using it as an opportunity to add to positions.
     
    #539 Rock Sexton, May 12, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Here's my work on BTC futures using a $100 box size. Like you are finding for BTC/USD, the target appears to be in the neighborhood. I'll look at BTC/USD next/later.

    I have no idea what instrument to use to trade this. What is your thought on that?

    BTC Futures $100-box by 3-box-reversal
    upload_2019-5-12_12-59-12.png
     

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