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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue on where to go to trade it. I tried to separate my personal feelings regarding crypto from the chart and thought 4k was ripe for a trade, but couldn't get myself to pull the trigger and watched it revert to my target. LOL
     
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  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272 check it out as it's straddling 2019's point of control (most active price by volume) and the selling is increasing on the regular volume histogram at the bottom.

    Blow-off top of the current rally and supply re-entering the market?

    BTC5-12b.JPG
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I can see on the vertical chart all the congestion in that POC area, but can't put it on a particular swing point or a high-volume close. No doubt more attention is being paid to volume profile.

    Here's the BTC/USD P&F I promised. Same as the futures, it's showing near done or done for this rally, yellow flag. So, yeah, all that supply coming into the market on your daily vertical chart above is a red flag. I expect we'll see a distribution or re-accumulation TR develop.

    EDIT: The time interval of 11-minutes is erroneous and should be 1-day. It makes no difference to the counts shown but the recent reversals in the 7500 area shown here have not occurred using the correct time interval. Corrected chart below.
    upload_2019-5-12_13-36-16.png
     
    #543 Onepoint272, May 12, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
  4. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Actually you'll have to pardon my chart - I didn't have the point of control area labeled correctly. That original red line on my chart was just the marker for current price level at the time of that screenshot.

    Below, shows that it blew thru it on increased demand. I over-layed the April/May rally volume profile on there too. I know I'm merging two concepts here, but seeing that kind of demand/SOS blasting thru the point of control signals to me that buyers overcame sellers. Putting support at 6500 right now. A healthy low volume re-test of that area would be a good buy signal otherwise back to 5200.

    BTC5-12f.JPG
     
    #544 Rock Sexton, May 12, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
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  5. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Hey OP one more question.

    On your 7 x 100 x 3, why didn't you use 3500 instead of 3200? I wanna clean my approach up if I'm not identifying the correct starting point.
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Actually I used 3400, but a great observation nonetheless. Not only that, but I see I had a fat-finger error using 11-minutes for the time interval instead of 1 day. But that makes no difference to the counts. The correct time frame however does show that a reversal has not occurred yet at the recent top. The corrected P&F is below.

    But getting back to your question: Below is a vertical chart where you can see the last test of the PS line (the LPS) is at 3535. But a $100-box by 3-box-reversal is not that well defined. Of course projecting P&F targets is not archery, it's more like horse shoes.

    EDIT: Adding to that, you can see that the low point of 3340.80 corresponds to 3400 on the P&F, where I took the count (the price went down thru 3400 but never reached 3300, so 3400 was the last P&F print). The P&F resolution did not pick up the 3535 LPS, i.e., it did not print another down column to the LPS, and if it did it would have been 3600 since 3500 was not hit. But its all good; close enough.

    EDIT2: You might ask why did I use a $100 box. First I tried using a 14-day ATR which told me to use a $330 box which is too big (very little resolution) and using the ATR for an after-the-fact count is erroneously accounting for the recent higher prices. So I dialed it down to $100. I could have gone down to a $50 box or less but I've found that a larger box size gives a more conservative and hopefully more realistic target, so I just go down to a box size that roughly detects the LPS.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-5-12_16-2-44.png


    $100-box by 3-box-reversal P&F with correct time interval = 1-day:
    upload_2019-5-12_15-28-28.png
     
    #546 Onepoint272, May 12, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
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  7. Unicorn Dreams

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    Wow looks like we've all been eyeing BTC, I was looking at it during 4k as well but couldn't really figure out where to trade it either. Considered buying futures until I saw how leveraged the instrument was...anyone concerned that both BTC and the indexes are rising?
     
  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Tharrrrrrrr she blowsssss ..... $KTOS rockin' the shit right now.

    They recently crushed earnings (.08 Eps vs. 02 expected). Goldman upgraded it to 20. I believe we had a $31 PnF target on it @Onepoint272

    KTOS5-15.JPG
     
  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Congrats and nice call. Are you guys actually in?
     
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  10. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Sure am, albeit I'm likely taking profits by end of day. I'm very confident in the $31 target, but at this stage I'd prefer to buy back in on a dip. It's gotta cool off soon after spiking from upper 14's to almost 20.60 now.
     
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  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Not a believer in Bitcoin, but the chart was screaming to me around 4000 and now this second "run" in the last 2 years sort've solidifies this thing as an asset class - specifically for a flight to safety.

    I saw that nasty upper work on the chart (blue arrow) and backed off thinking it was simply going to consolidate at those levels and make new lows. Once it broke above, it became clear the 3k level was the flush of remaining weak holders. Reversion to 2018's point of control (most active price by volume) was certain ...... and then it absolutely blew past it. $10,800 (next target) is 2 standard deviations away from the POC. If it breaks above that, there is some serious upside.

    The timing couldn't be any more peculiar given that institutional investment into BTC has increased like 60% in the last 6-8 months. That means it's not just Joe Shmoe and his $1000 trying to become a millionaire in crypto. I can't argue if institutional money wants to invest in this space.

    BTCupdate5-15.JPG
     
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  12. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272 think I got something here with $EVRI. This setup looks like a long time in the making too. That $15.40 POC of the volume profile that I labeled on my chart seems very obvious right now.

    Their May 7th earnings report for Q1: "Everi Holdings (EVRI) reported 1st Quarter March 2019 earnings of $0.08 per share on revenue of $123.8 million. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.02 per share on revenue of $121.9 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.04 per share. Revenue grew 11.5% on a year-over-year basis.

    The company said it continues to expect Adjusted EBITDA of $252.0 million to $255.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2019.
    "

    Thoughts?

    EVRI.JPG
     
    #552 Rock Sexton, May 17, 2019
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
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  13. Unicorn Dreams

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    I'm curious as well looks like a nice play to me, good low volume accumulation in 2008-2009, another declining volume accumulation period from 2010-2011, followed up with one of the nastiest stop hunts in 2016. 90 percent institution owned.
     
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  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I'm with @Unicorn Dreams, it looks like another good one @Rock Sexton !

    Here's how I'd label the Monthly:
    upload_2019-5-18_10-59-13.png

    And the Weekly:
    upload_2019-5-18_11-30-27.png

    And the 50-cent-box by 3-box-reversal P&F:
    upload_2019-5-18_11-32-34.png
     
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  15. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Awesome! Thanks man!

    I had around the same PnF count, but every time I complete one on a stock that's consolidated a long time - I sit there thinking "This is wild, but that's what it says! LOL". I was going back and forth on where to place my "creek", but you confirmed it was slightly lower.

    The part I like most, is it's not a day trading type stock. Should be nice and steady.
     
  16. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Wouldn't you know it Bitcoin had some gnarly 5,000 BTC order that sold it off yesterday and of course the support I previously mentioned kicked in. Those mid 6k prices didn't last long at all either. Is Rock Sexton really gonna have to diversify into some Bitcoin? LOL

    Strange times if it happens.

    BTC5-18.JPG
     
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  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Good to know...that at least 90% of the stock is essentially locked up and unavailable for trading.
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    At that means there's literally only like 7 million trading shares were out left to be traded. I suspect that if we're in the midst of a markup phase that will change a bit, but ya just another great aspect to this stock.
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Just posting some notes on 3M which I want to eventually buy more of for the long term portfolio. JP Morgan recently lowered their target from 154 to 143 and even suggested that 3M may have to break their 37-year record of increasing dividends. I suspect that last bit is fear mongering. As for the target of 143 that would give a divvy yield of exactly 4% if they don't cut dividends. The P&F is giving a lower target at $96. The last bear market Nov 2007 to April 2009 saw 3M sink 54%. A similar rout would put 3M at $117.

    EDIT: Correction on MMM's track record for increasing dividends; it is 60 years. Their payout ratio ($5.76/yr Dividend / $9.52 EPS) is still only 61%. No chance they'll cut the dividend unless their payout ratio remains high for several years.

    upload_2019-5-20_0-26-22.png
     
    #559 Onepoint272, May 20, 2019 at 1:33 AM
    Last edited: May 21, 2019 at 1:40 AM
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Is it time to buy NVTA again?

    On the vertical chart, Friday showed effort versus result and on the P&F:
    • An aggressive P&F count gives 13.50 but a conservative count give 18.00, where it is now.
    • 18.00 is also at the demand line of a reverse trend channel.
    • 18.00 is also at support (previous resistance).
    • 18.00 is also at a 50% retracement of the previous large upthrust on the P&F
    $0.75-box by 3-box-reversal P&F:
    upload_2019-5-20_3-29-42.png
     
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