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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Guys, the gold/silver ratio is at a critical level and the miners are confirming the gold and silver moves. Here's a list. I don't have time to post charts but most, if not all, of these have classic Wyckoff setups with lots of SOSs. I'm going to focus on those with the best relative strength, the leaders.

    AEM, AG, AU, AUY, BTG, EXK, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, GFI, GLD, GOLD, GSS, HL, HMY, KGC, KL, MAG, MUX, NEM, NG, RGLD, SAND, SSRM, WPM
     
  2. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    I came here to post chart for GLD when I saw your post. Capture.JPG
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @moss_sumit. Yeah, the GLD spyder (paper gold) appears to show a break out but the futures got rejected at the top of the range which dates back to the summer of 2013...so lot's of cause for a huge move if it can break out. Seems we've got some time to find our favorites (instruments/miners) and pick our spots, that is, if the retracement is light and easy back towards that 1362 area.

    Gold Futures Weekly bars:
    upload_2019-6-27_0-7-35.png
     
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting development with ABBV if you haven't heard. They announced they want to acquire Allergan. ABBV is heavily dependent on Humira (an arthritis drug I guess) for about 61% of their revenues which will come off patent in 2023. Thus they want the Botox maker Allergan to broaden their future revenue sources. So Allergan (AGN) popped about 26% and ABBV dropped about 16% and closed today at $68.00. They're paying a divvy yield of about 6.5% and they have a history of increasing the dividend. I don't know if they'll keep the div after acquisition, but if it gets oversold by diving under the downtrend channel, say into the $56 area, I may have to pick some up for the long term.

    upload_2019-6-27_0-32-3.png
     
  5. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    That was a question that came up during an acquisition conference call. The CEO said that the much increased cash flow of the combined company will be used to bring pipeline drugs through trials, to sustain the divy, and pay down debt. The problem is, the debt they will acquire from AGN will add proportionally more debt than cash flow that ABBV already had. Plus, part of the acquisition is being funded by new debt.

    Elsewhere in the call the CEO said:

    "...this just assures that we can continue to drive a strong and growing dividend. We're absolutely committed to a growing dividend, and nothing has changed. And this gives us a higher level of assurity [sic] to be able to continue to do that at a robust rate."
    Of course, they pretty much had to say that. Whether that means the divy will grow at the same rate or not remains to be seen. The way actual words mean nothing these days, perhaps "growing dividend" is a euphemism for "cut"...? Ha ha!

    Anyhow, I own a teensy bit of ABBV and have been swing trading it (mostly with options) pretty steadily since last autumn.
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @Three Eyes.

    They bounced a little more on Thursday to $70.00. On a daily vertical chart, it looks like a dead cat bounce to me.

    The $2-box by 3-box-reversal P&F is confirming an eventual move to about $56.
    upload_2019-6-28_7-20-29.png
     
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  7. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    ......... #REGRET

    $NVTA is filling the gap. Very strong response after the Q1 earnings miss. I need to just get long and stay long for the PnF target we had in the low 50's. Starting to notice that short term panic selloff's offer a great dip opportunity to buy if it's still trending up towards our long term PnF targets

    NVTA6-28.JPG
     
    #627 Rock Sexton, Jun 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Your chart above was from early in Friday's trading day. It ended the day with that price surge (high 23.98 and close 23.50) on huge volume and it looks compelling on the daily but I'm leery about it, I think it should have gone twice as high on that volume...potential effort vs. result bar. And if you break it down to an intraday chart it appears most of the volume came in during the last 1/2 hour of trading with little price movement, so that 23.50 may be a price magnet for awhile (you probably have a better way to explain it in profile terms). It appears like that huge amount of trading in the $23-23.50 area may have sealed the floor at $22.35, the high from the inception.

    Looking back, I was thinking about getting back in after that scary downdraft dished out on low volume (on the daily chart), but never committed. I guess the downdraft turned out to be a terminal shakeout...devious action. At this point I'd like to see it do more work in the re-accumulation range so that the current count projection matches the base count projection. They don't have to match but waiting for that would be an obvious hand to play. I guess in the meantime one could trade the range and buy a low volume pullback, just in case it takes off suddenly...or just jump in here with a stop just under $22....a $1.50 to $2.00 risk.


    50-cent box by 3-box-reversal with 65-min data:
    upload_2019-6-29_10-6-40.png
     
    #628 Onepoint272, Jun 29, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
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  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Put it this way - there was such a big surge of volume pushing it to 24 that the point of control for Q2 literally shifted up from $19.30 to $24.02. Part of the reason for the surge was because there was a low volume node where little previous activity took place. Many times those can serve has staunch resistance. The other factor I'm sure was that it was basically a 40% move since the bottom of the dip causing natural profit taking.

    Either way, great sign for future higher prices, as you want more longer termed POC's shifting upward (especially within the overall volume profile) to build more support and "cause" for the next leg. The volume profile confirmed an "AR" after the big dump from Q1 earnings. Btw, I read comments months ago that for a long time now NVTA has been spelling out the fact that Q1 has always been an expected underperformer (Q3 and Q4 are their big dawg reports) so it was just a short term overreaction.

    This move up to 24 is proof of that. Should've held my shares in the 18's. That would've been the PRO move and reduced my risk greatly, but ya I'm 90% sure I'm buying back .... obviously prefer to on a dip and that $22 area (the low volume node) would be ripe for it as it should be support now. "Patience" will forever be the final trading frontier for me.

    NVTA6-29.JPG
     
    #629 Rock Sexton, Jun 29, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Rock. I'm digging your low-volume-node $22 area also. 22.34 is support established week before last, and 22.35 was the previous all-time high from inception, and next week's traditional weekly pivot (average of previous week's high, low, close) is 22.18, which by rule of thumb, has a 70-80% chance of being hit sometime during the week.

    65-minute sticks:
    upload_2019-6-29_18-26-52.png
     
    #630 Onepoint272, Jun 29, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
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  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    SBUX has a long-term P&F projection to $150 but I think one more good impulse in the uptrend channel for an orderly continuation.

    Daily:
    upload_2019-7-1_21-22-52.png

    On the hourly (65-minute bars) it appears it is on the springboard having today tested the weekly pivot and potentially printing a LPS.

    65-minute sticks:
    upload_2019-7-1_21-35-48.png

    A 25-cent-box by 3-box-reversal P&F gives an upside re-accumulation projection of 89.25 which if it hits would be oversold (above the uptrend channel) on the daily chart.
    upload_2019-7-1_21-47-50.png
     
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    MET got over and held the mysterious $50.40 block trade of May 21st.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-7-2_7-18-12.png
     
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  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Scorpio Tankers, STNG, is making progress.

    upload_2019-7-2_7-53-50.png
     
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  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Took profits on STNG @ 29.42, barring calamity or a better opportunity, intend to buy back in the area of the weekly pivot which hasn't been hit yet, ~28.30.
     
    #634 Onepoint272, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Took profits on MET @ 49.93, barring calamity, intend to buy back in area of the weekly pivot @ 49.34.
     
    #635 Onepoint272, Jul 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
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  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Took profits on GIS @ 53.24. May buy back at weekly pivot of 51.75.
     
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  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    @Onepoint272 Is there a reason you're closing out so many positions today? Or just a coincidence that they're all hitting your targets at the same time?
     
  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I took a vacation this week, hanging around the farm in WI and not all tied up laboring at the salt mine, so I can drop my time frame and refine my trading, that's all.
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    3M's momo on this counter-trend bounce is fading. The downtrend should continue soon. Waiting to buy for the long term at lower prices. The P&F shows potential downside to $96 where the annual dividend yield will be about 6%.

    65-minute bars:
    upload_2019-7-4_22-49-36.png
     
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Took profits on SBUX @ 87.80.

    It has cause to $150 in the long term and perhaps to 89.25 in the short term, but currently above the oversold line of the uptrend channel (on daily chart) and so taking the bread while the taking is good, into this strength. Will buy back later and lower. Charts later.
     
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