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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    As posted above took profits in SBUX. It could go a little higher in the next few trading days before a retracement, but close enough. Watching and waiting to get back in.
    Vertical Daily chart of SBUX.
    upload_2019-7-5_18-7-3.png

    25-cent-box by 3-box-reversal P&F using 65-minute data:
    upload_2019-7-5_18-8-39.png
     
    T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272

    Would it be fair to say that after a valid terminal shakeout most of these will consolidate fairly tightly towards the upper end of the rally in the vicinity of the JOC/BUC?

    For example, the rally on ATUS started around $15 and maxed out around $25 before taking a breather. When I put it on alert in here, it was already around $21.00. That in itself was already a 40% gain. Often times I feel extremely leery buying and holding something already up that much. But as we keep seeing with many of these - the float is already in full control by the CM (as witnessed by the monster rallies after the TS), so I shouldn't feel so hesitant right?

    I've been in/out of ATUS a few times since it started consolidating between 23 and 25 and I'm trying to eliminate the mental waffling when I'm in a position that has rallied largely after the TS.

    Also, if possible by chance would you be able to share the PnF for the recent consolidation? I'm not signed up for the intraday package for it.
     
    #642 Rock Sexton, Jul 10, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2019
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I think that when there has been a big rally, like with ATUS going from 15 to 22.50 and then to 25, it draws in public participation and the opportunity for the CM to take short-term profits which initiates a trading range (TR), like with ATUS between 22.50 and 21 and again between 25 and 23. There is no doubt that it is the CM who is defending the lower boundary of thoseTRs because as we know the fragmented capital of the public can't do that. The question as always is if the TRs are the result of the CM re-accumulating or distributing...and so we try to find evidences in the TR, like shrinking volumes (lack of supply) at the lower boundary and a general shrinking of supply thru the range, both indicating that the supply of public stock is being absorbed.

    One thing I notice about ATUS is a volume spike on June 28th with a closing price at 24.40. Then on July 1st the price went down slightly and tested the new monthly pivot at 24.11 (quickly got that out of the way) and it showed no supply. (Refer to 30-minute-bar chart below). Then on July 2nd it bolted to resistance at the top of the range to 24.98 and then it retraced to test that high-volume 24.40 area on July 8th and there wasn't any supply. So then on July 9th and 10th it rallied back up to the top of the TR rising to just above 25 with 2 impulsive upthrusts and 2 retracements with lack of supply, then a third low-volume retracement and now its holding just under the 25.15 high....to me it looks to be in the ready-set-go position. The CM does not appear to be selling / defending the upper boundary of the range and is holding it up there saying, "here ya go funds and specs, mark it up".

    30-minute bars:
    upload_2019-7-11_2-50-56.png

    Here's an intraday P&F using 65-minute data:
    upload_2019-7-11_3-5-24.png
     
    #643 Onepoint272, Jul 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
  4. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    What are your thoughts on CVS?

    Capture.JPG Capture1.JPG
     
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Moss, I've worked on the long term P&F for CVS before and couldn't make sense of it so I passed it by. I looked again, same thing, just can't tell if it has reached its downside target. There's a lengthy TR with lots of cause that would project the price way under zero, which of course can't be a correct count.

    On a shorter-term P&F the picture is clearer and if you believe it's done going down in the long term, then the short term count shows it has legs to 87.50. However, this upthrust that occurred today, catalyzed by Trump's dropping the drug rebate proposal, may be an upthrust after distribution (UTAD), a false breakout. The price closed 4.68% higher but it did not hold price and printed a selling tail on the daily chart. So if I had to play it, I'd be cautious of that and play it very short term until it clears and holds $62.06.

    50-cent-box by 3-box-reversal P&F using 65-min data:
    upload_2019-7-11_21-29-23.png

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-7-11_21-41-13.png
     
    OldFart, T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  6. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    @Onepoint272 - Thank you for your reply.
    I was looking for an entry over a short-term horizon and I'll continue to watch...
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Well today nobody in the whole world was willing to sell under 57.52 and then on the test 30 minutes before the close it found higher support with reduced supply (volume). So I guess, I would put a STOP just under 57.52. Tomorrow's traditional daily pivot, (H+L+C)/3, is 58.54 which coincides with intraday resistance/support at 58.46. I'd probably wait for it to get above the pivot and retest it with it showing no supply, and buy as close to it as possible. Assuming a buy at 58.60 and stop at 57.40 there'd be a risk of $1.20 per share.

    10-minute bars:
    upload_2019-7-11_23-20-11.png
     

    Attached Files:

  8. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit New Member

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    Thanks.
     
  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    @Onepoint272

    What's your take on the move in Bitcoin above the 1st Std Dev I labeled on my chart? Effort vs. Result seems to imply there wasn't sufficient follow thru on the part of sellers. I'm starting to assume the float is in full control - accumulation began at 6k, but the CM saw an opportunity to shake out some weak longs at what the market perceived as "value" at 2018's most active price.

    I'm thinking there's a good chance it will bull flag out between 10,800 to 14,000 before new all time highs. Reminds me of our little talk about how these things behave after a TS.

    Bitcoin7-12.JPG
     
    #649 Rock Sexton, Jul 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Its interesting that your one-standard deviation lines coincide closely with the swing lows (S/R) from December 2017 and Feb 2018.

    I don't disagree with your analysis. A change of character began when it became overbot by bolting out of the uptrend channel and above the swing low from Dec 2017 and then printing a buying climax (BC) at 13,880. The uptrend has been stopped now that it has completed Phase A by printing an automatic reaction (AR) and a secondary test (ST). So now it should go thru a period of either re-accumulation or distribution in Phase B. You are correct to assume it will be re-accumulation, "bull flag", since the background trend is up. However, Phase B is difficult to trade and one strategy may be to buy in the lower area of the trading range (TR) but then where to put a stop, just under 9600, 8390, or 7300? Have to wait I think for the change of character of Phase C, a spring from below the TR with capitulating volume and a low-volume retest, or a spring from below the TR with dried-up supply.

    I don't see how these will ever be a widely accepted currency with volatility like this.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-7-13_11-19-21.png
     
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  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    It's most definitely NOT a currency. The volatility as you say prevents it from ever being. Not to mention with speculative price targets higher than 20k who the hell would want to spend it if it's going to be worth more down the road? Jay Powell all, but confirmed the digital gold thesis the other day during this speech and I agree. Anyone "accepting" bitcoin in payment is actually baiting people so that they can sell the actual bitcoin at higher prices.

    Institutions are now offering it as a portfolio diversification and a hedge against stock market risk. This means hundreds of billions of extra dollars is now trying to squeeze into something that essentially has a tiny float. That same low float would explain the volatility. We saw another example of this in the Beyond Meat IPO. It's been speculated that perhaps only 3-4 million BTC are actually available right now, as everything else is being firmly held by the BTC "community".

    BTC.JPG
     
  12. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Cleaned my chart up a little bit on Bitcoin.
    • SC occurred in Jan. 2018, subsequently the AR which then set "The Creek"
    • TS occurred in Nov. 2018, causing the final panic flush so that the CM could take complete control of the supply
    • I applied the volume profile to this recent breakout from 3k
      • The most active price is basically 5,000
      • 1 std deviation from the most active price is 9,800
      • 2 std deviation from the most active price is 12,700
    • Weekly RSI(2) which I use to measure strength in short term moves is nearing "OVERSOLD" territory, but price would be making another higher low compared to the last time it was oversold i.e. divergence
    I'm going to watch to see if the CM defends the current uptrend around 9,800 (perhaps allowing for a 100 or 200 point cushion) if he does then I would assume the LPS would form before the official breakout above "The Creek". Expected range before new all-time highs would be 9,800 to 12,700.

    If 9,800 were to give out it would seem likely 8,000 would get re-tested. It's an HVN (high volume node) on the volume profile and it's also June's most active price level.

    BTC7-14.JPG
     
    #652 Rock Sexton, Jul 14, 2019 at 3:06 PM
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019 at 3:44 PM
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  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Decided to show a closer look at the proposed 9,800 - 12,700 range from my prior chart.
    • The volume profile is drawn from the sell climax thru today
    • In a re-accumulation scenario, I would assume the high volume SC would attract buying within the selling
    • The most active price of 11,400 is where market makers and the CM began doing their work once again
      • Since it's positioned perfectly in the middle of the range it suggests "balance", which is ideal for continued long momentum
    • Sell volume is DECREASING as it draws closer to the lower end of the range
    • Will the CM continue to defend the area in which an LPS is expected to form?
    BTC7-14a.JPG
     
    #653 Rock Sexton, Jul 14, 2019 at 3:54 PM
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019 at 4:58 PM
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  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    ^ SPAM or worse? o_O I'm not clicking on the link.
     
    #654 Onepoint272, Jul 15, 2019 at 9:31 AM
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM
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  15. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    LOL, I thought the same thing. But it appears they were reply back to a comment much earlier in this thread.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Yeah, we seem to be getting hit with some weird logins into the forums of late. Like you get someone bumping really old threads with something so random.

    Or in this case, someone quotes another persons post from previous pages back of a thread. Can’t figure out if it’s some forum bot or what. Honestly it’s irritating as fuck.

    I can’t really ban them either since there really isn’t a straight up violation of the forums rules.

    But fuck it. Ima delete that dudes post right now so it does not disrupt the flow of this thread.

    Keep up those amazing posts in here fellas @Onepoint272 @Rock Sexton @Jrich
     
  17. Bladebringer

    Bladebringer New Member

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    Interestingly, thanks a lot for making some points clear. Really good job! Looks so lovely! And if you have some troubles doing your essays or other paper work during studies you can always try to ask for professional help here https://topeduservices.com/. I was really lucky to have their help when I had no time to do it by myself. The results were great
     
    #657 Bladebringer, Jul 15, 2019 at 2:35 PM
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019 at 3:59 AM
  18. Unicorn Dreams

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    Hey Onepoint curious on your PnF analysis of AMD if you have the free time.
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Here's what I'm going on, a 50-cent-box by 3-box-reversal with daily data. That previous high of 34.14 fell short of the mark, but not too bad. And the low of 16.17 was oversold from the projection. But it puts me in the ballpark of when to expect some sort of change of character.

    upload_2019-7-15_16-3-4.png
     
  20. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I'm going to recant a bit on my previous Bitcoin charts. I don't have anything new to add from a Wyckoff perspective, but with my previous volume profile analysis - I need to remain disciplined in looking at prior intervals (i.e. prior month, prior quarter, etc.)
    • It closed away from the most active price levels for both the 2nd Quarter and June, which often creates "imbalance" in markets that are to be corrected
    • There is a high volume node (HVN) almost as large as Q2's most active price, which shares confluence with June's most active price - this would be ideal support for dip buying
    I feel as if these recent senate hearings for Facebook's Libra and comments by the administration regarding crypto is causing short term panic. That would be confirmed if If July's most active price (11,350) remains at month-end.

    BTC7-16.JPG
     
    #660 Rock Sexton, Jul 16, 2019 at 3:29 PM
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019 at 3:37 PM
    Onepoint272 and bigbear0083 like this.

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