A Wyckoff Student Notebook

QSR fell thru short-term ICE this morning and just a bit ago did some weird sort of flash crash, a running of the stops perhaps. I sold on the rebound for a decent gain. By the way, that downdraft hit bottom within a couple dimes of the intraday PnF downside count projection.

The downdraft could be a shake-out but I think with that kind of supply coming into the market it will need to get re-tested. May look to buy back on a retest.

10-minute bars:

 

You know, I was actually looking at AMD the last couple days but kept coming to the same conclusion... It hasn't built enough cause. It hit it's downside short term target pretty close but hasn't had enough time to be prepared. Long term it still has cause to $49 but something tells me the boyz were not ready in the short term and now all the hillbillies have jumped into the stock. I dunno, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

65-minute sticks (~1:45 CDT):


EDIT: The note on chart should say: "Failure to reach the Overbought line of uptrend channel."

 

LOL. No, I've been by where you're from many times and know there's a severe shortage of hills.

 

Looking at AMD with 10 minute data and a 10-cent box and a liberal count you can just about justify a slight oversold condition. Still though, it will need to build some cause to move higher I think. But hey, if the news is really as big a game changer as they say and it caught all the institutions and boyz in the know off guard then I suppose all the counting in the world won't mean a thing. This method relies on the assumption that the markets are manipulated after all.

 

I'm sure y 'all realize there was no offence meant as I'm part hillbilly myself and just trying to point out that the public is likely heavily involved in AMD. I would have preferred to see this kind of move from institutions without all the hoopla and the public get involved on a break from the range; it makes me cautious wondering if they ran it up to sell it once again. But AMD has always proved difficult to get in to for me, so nothing new there, and I want it to correct to an LPS so I can make a calculated entry...but it may not work out again.

 

So Restaurant Brands International (QSR) came out with news and as usual the news lags the price action...somebody always knows.

TORONTO , Aug. 8, 2019 /CNW/ - Restaurant Brands International Inc. ("RBI" or the "Company") (TSX/NYSE: QSR) announced today that Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership ("RBI LP") had received an exchange notice from HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital Partners Ltd. ("3G Capital"), to exchange 20,000,000 Class B exchangeable limited partnership units (the "Exchangeable Units") of RBI LP. RBI LP intends to satisfy this notice with the delivery of 20,000,000 common shares (the "Exchange").

I'm so glad I don't have to try and figure all this out and then form an opinion on it, and that I can just follow those who not only really know what is going on but also have the capital to move the price where they want it to go. Now I can just sit back and wait for another set-up.

10-minute sticks:

 

The continuing saga of QSR (mother company of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes):

10-min bars (~1:45 CDT):


EDIT: The note should say "Unable to reach Overbought line"

 

Thanks Rock, that is noteworthy and I neglected to point it out. I think the boy scout who fell thru the ice found the bottom of the pond, SC is in and maybe the AR now also. I may keep monitoring to catch the ST.

In other QSR news there were multiple upgrades prior to the dilution announcement and the vegans are all upset with Burger King's introduction of the "Impossible Whopper", some Beyond Meat deal. Seems the vegans don't like that it will be flame broiled on the same broiler as their animal protein-based whoppers so its not really vegan. Of course BK never said it was a "vegan" burger. Excuse me, but who are these estrogen-rich outliers who write these articles? In the end though, if you'd been following the news, the upgrades, the vegan problem, you'd have missed it by not watching the chart. I picked up a copy of Benjamin Graham's "The intelligent Investor" at a library sale since its been a while since I've "tried" reading it. What a rag. Maybe I can get a few bucks for it on eBay.

 

I'm offended by AMD. I keep missing out. Soon it will be up to my long term target and I won't be on-board. I remain hopeful it will let me in next week.

 

Yes I am. Wow, good eyes, I thought it was a sleeper. Thanks. I wonder what's up with that?