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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    A Bitcoin ETF is launching on Thursday. Carnival barkers are greasing up the wheels on the roller coaster. Could be time to step up to the ticket window.
     
  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    What you're talking about is only available to institutions, as the SEC has yet to approve Bitcoin ETF's for the public to invest in. It will also trade on the OTC (which GBTC does as well), so it it's not a valid ETF just similar in structure.

    I'm still waiting patiently. Definitely not buying on a massive gap up like today in GBTC or what was essentially a 5 day rally in BTC.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I was listening to an interview with Mark Cuban and although he's a big proponent of block chain he believes bitcoin and such will be nothing more than a collectible, albeit a potentially more valuable collectible, but never a currency...it will always be exchanged in relation to a recognized currency and not have its own intrinsic value.

    This chart is for Bodie, Western Union, a 10-cent-box by 3-box-reversal point and figure using 65-minute (hourly) data. Looks like it's about spent and will need to build more cause.
    upload_2019-9-7_19-30-4.png
     
  4. Unicorn Dreams

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    I completely agree, blockchain solves the problem of excess power. Energy companies no longer have to give it away or pay someone else to take it, BTC on the other hand is way too volatile to ever become a currency.
     
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not up to speed on blockchain. I assume you mean by "excess energy" that energy produced by wind and solar when it is not needed or just excess power produced by hard-to-shut down/throttle coal-fired and nuke plants during times of lowest demand. How does blockchain help them with that?
     
    #865 Onepoint272, Sep 8, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
    Unicorn Dreams likes this.
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    A Jack Corsellis favorite and now mine too, Gildan Activewear (GIL)

    upload_2019-9-8_19-8-34.png
     
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  7. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    @Onepoint272 - what's you thought on storage companies STX and WDC. Both have very similar charts and are breaking out.

    wdc.JPG
    stx.JPG
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like you got action on STX to $67.
    upload_2019-9-8_22-14-9.png

    upload_2019-9-8_22-18-23.png
     
  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Did some work on WDC with a $2 box and 3-box reversal:

    upload_2019-9-8_23-42-48.png
     
  10. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    Thank you.
     
  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    We think alike, as I was just looking over this one this weekend.

    Alas, I believe a pullback is needed before the rest of the upmove can commence. We're talking 8 straight up days with a very weak candle on 9/4 and a gap from 9/3. IMO these must be repaired first.

    WDC9-9.PNG
     
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    You and @moss_sumit think alike. I wasn't even thinking about the storage device companies, in fact I haven't given them a thought in years, @moss_sumit pointed them out to me. Yeah it seems there is a lot of "wait and see" stocks on my radar, so not doing much lately, but I've also been busy with work and other things.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    I've been waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too undisciplined with my entries this year and it's hurt my performance. Either I buy on a pullback or I let it go - simple as that ........ no matter what how lofty the target is.
     
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  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Btw I've got a very short term swing on $XEC.

    It's basically an AR on the weekly chart. Shorts are covering and taking some of their profits off the table, which offers an opportunity for some upside repairing. I'm trying to overlay the PnF using the daily chart and I'm getting 41.50 + (9 x 0.30 x 3) = $49.60 which happens to be a hair or two away from July's most active price.

    @Onepoint272 any chance you could lend a more accurate PnF on a lower TF?
     
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  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Rock, here ya go. This is showing a slightly more conservative $48 target. I see there's a gap up there too, beginning at 48.85. You're 49.60 and "active price" is probably in the ball park, ride it till it shows stopping action. Nice trade.

    65-minute (hourly) bars:
    upload_2019-9-11_2-24-18.png


    50-cent-box by 3-box-reversal using 30-minute data:
    upload_2019-9-11_2-18-48.png
     
    #875 Onepoint272, Sep 11, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I legged in long on GIL today, Tuesday. I may try to pick up more tomorrow. It printed a BUC on the weekly (see post #866 above). Here are 130-minute (2-hour) bars showing today's spring of support:

    upload_2019-9-11_3-2-4.png

    And here is a 10-cent-box by 3-box-reversal using 30-minute data showing a target of 39.70 where it will likely pause to build more short-term cause, but the plan is to hold longer on this one, to $82.50 (see post #866 above):
    upload_2019-9-11_3-25-52.png
     
    #876 Onepoint272, Sep 11, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
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  17. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    This one is on the move, looks like it is stepping up to a new price range.
     
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    ^Yeah, FMC is doing better than my GIL, but I'm confident GIL will get out of the gate next week. Next week's pivot is 37.40, 8 cents lower than this week's close, 37.48. It should test the weekly pivot before moving higher. In the larger time frame it just moved up and from a Back-up-to-the-Creek, BUC. It appears to be building some short-term cause to break above the 37.97 resistance. A test of next week's pivot at 37.40 could be the Last Point of Support (LPS) for this latest short-term trading range.

    I seldom have a fundamental bias on any of these casino tickets, but I will say Gildan makes great T-shirts and A-shirts (wife beats). They're just cotton, for regular people, but a great weave and just everyday good quality, long-wearing stuff.

    130-min (~2-hr) bars:
    upload_2019-9-14_13-17-4.png
     
    #878 Onepoint272, Sep 14, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  19. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    I figure the PO for GIL is around $45 over the next 20-30 trade days, have you calculated a similar number/time frame?
     
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    That pace is certainly possible, but no I haven't looked at a pace. My short term price objective (PO) of 39.70, call it 40, shown on the chart just above, is from a 30-minute data PnF, and it could take 20 to 30 trading days I suppose. There is some previous congestion in that $40 area so I expect it will pause there before continuing to your $45 PO.

    Longer term, I did get an $82.50 PO from a daily data PnF chart, see post #866, but not sure how long it will take to get there.
     
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