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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Did not get back into SWPR yet, still waiting. I did buy some more STNG on a test of an intraday spring. We'll see if it can clear the congestion. I'll probably sell the entire position today if it can't close above 35.17. Then may get back in next week. Still holding MMM.

    5-minute bars:
    upload_2019-10-11_12-13-13.png
     
    #921 Onepoint272, Oct 11, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2019
  2. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    @Onepoint272 - You posted few weeks about GIL. It has been on my radar too ever since Jack Corsellis mentioned it in Jun but I never started a position. What's your thought on it given then price action last few weeks?
     
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I still own some and I don't like today's action nor the last few weeks. I'm wondering if the Doll Hair/Looney has anything to do with its lackluster performance. I need to look at that this weekend.
     
  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Stopped out for small gain on STNG, but it all adds up. It broke down instead of closing above 35.17 which I think it needed to do on the daily time frame. Next week's pivot is lower at 34.43. I'll wait and see how it comes into that but don't want to lose track of this one as it has cause to about $50.

    5-min bars:
    upload_2019-10-11_15-50-6.png

    $1-box by 3-box-reversal P&F:
    upload_2019-10-11_16-12-59.png
     
    OldFart, T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    SPWH - Sportsman Warehouse

    Weekly:
    upload_2019-10-12_12-55-37.png

    20-cent-box by 3-box-reversal:
    upload_2019-10-12_13-52-41.png

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2019-10-12_13-56-50.png
     
    OldFart and bigbear0083 like this.
  6. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    I thought they have big presence in Bangladesh and not China but I might be mistaken.
    It's price action definitely is not invoking any confidence in starting a position.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  7. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    hey people,

    It's been a while (I've been busy). I was looking at the thread and my interest was peaked by the OPTINOSE INC. charts.

    Could it be that we've been looking at (short term) distribution?

    [​IMG]

    I marked the chart yellow where i believe there might be selling/absorption of the demand happening.
    I have a more bearish outlook because price didn't manage to exit the trading range and stay at the upper edge after the spring action/sell off.
    The volume also seems to increase throughout the range each time i see selling/absorption.

    I might be completely off here and maybe it's obvious accumulation but i would appreciate your feedback. Not trying to be contrarian or a [email protected] or anything like that. :D

    I'm posting this to learn.

    cheers
     
  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Ingmar you make a good case for distribution, but I'll play devil's advocate and weigh in with a couple of issues:
    • A UTAD should move into new high ground on an increase in volume and a relative narrowing of the price spread and then return to the average level of closes. When OPTN moved into new high ground it did it on decreased volume and without a relative (to the volume) narrowing of price spread. So, while it was an upthrust I'm not sure if it was a UTAD. It may have just been a lack of demand excepting your last yellow-marked bar of Sept. 20th; the funds and specs were not willing to run with it.
    • that last trip under $6.50 showed small supply. Is it possible that last dip is Phase C and the low the LPS?
    You posted at 10:40am (Central U.S. time I believe). It did end up with a high-range close for the day. I'm not in it long or short.
     
    #928 Onepoint272, Oct 15, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2019
    OldFart, T0rm3nted and Ingmar like this.
  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    They may be in Bangladesh, but I think they are a Canadian company, at least they started out in Montreal I believe. That's why I was wondering if the exchange rate of the CAD and USD may be having some effect on GIL's USD price.

    I came within 4 cents of getting stopped out on Monday but still hanging in there. It recovered today, Tuesday.

    It's shown shortening of downward thrust but if it can't get over the monthly pivot at 36 on this rally, then I'll have to give some serious consideration to letting it go I think.
     
    #929 Onepoint272, Oct 15, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2019
    OldFart likes this.
  10. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Thanks @Onepoint272 , interesting !

    What i learned about an UTAD is that the preceeding rally, shows expanding upwards spread, velocity and volume. (as weak hands get excited and get into long positions again). This implies the volume can both contain increasing demand from weak hands as well as supply from strong hands.

    What i find an interesting question is; if strong hands saw value around the 7.00 level, where we saw increase in pressure throughout the range, (especially at aug/sept 13) would that explain the spread of the bullish bars on the rally on 14/15 sept ?

    If i look at the bars throughout the trading range that try to commit above the supply edge (analog bars) then the one before the last UT has the largest volume since june. The bar that commits above also has higher volume then the bar labelled as first UT.

    I interpreted the bar on the 20th as a test (LPSY) on decreased volume with supply pushing price down (this is much better visible on the lower timeframe on the 20th) there was some demand present for sure but on the lower TF it looks pretty weak to me. After that the decline (on decreasing volume) with no rally attempt whatsoever untill after the (last?) test of the previous SC.

    That being said, i totally see your scenario as well, I would have preferred to see some sort of spring but we could be heading into phase D indeed and the last rally also shows increased volume. We are at the 7.00 level once more so i’m very curious to see how price reacts the comng day(s).

    I find these the hardest situations to judge but very interesting nonetheless. I will definately continue to monitor this stock. I’m too insecure to take a position, although the range seems wide enough to allow for ‘mistakes’ and get out ‘wrong trades’ without losses.

    Thanks for exploring this with me @Onepoint272.
     
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  11. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...es-downgraded-after-profit-warning-2019-10-18
    Way oversold...
     
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Now I wished I'd have gotten stopped out last week at 34.32, instead of on today's gap down, schidt. An example of why stops are necessary but sometimes evil. I was visiting with the in-laws last night and totally missed the pre-warning and did not catch the open this morning. Oh well, in the long term, on the weekly chart, there is now a SOW (instead of a BUC on the weekly, a UTAD is confirmed). It's going lower. I shorted the intraday dead cat this morning at 28.03.

    Covered: 27.21.
     
    #932 Onepoint272, Oct 18, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2019
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  13. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Big gain today on double the average volume, currently at 9.56 / +1.04 (+12.21%).
     
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  14. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Just went long MSFT this morning @ 144.97... coming out of a likely re-accumulation with ~34% upside and a good spot for a -10% stop ($130, support of the TR)

    Also just ahead of ex-divy (11/20)

    Screenshot_20191105-084305.jpg
     
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  15. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    Reata Pharm - what a beautiful chart!!


    reta.PNG
     
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  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    This is a list of stocks I have a mind to focus some attention for long term plays:

    Dividend aristocrats: MCD, CL, CAH, AFL, KMB, CVX, T, MMM
    Artificial Intelligence / Augmented Reality: TER, TWLO, NVDA, XLNX, TCEHY, BIDU and the bigger names: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, FB
    Bottom Feeders: PCG
     
    #936 Onepoint272, Nov 17, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2019
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  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    At first glance it seems the aristocrat Colgate Palmolive (CL) may be setting up for a spring as there appears to be effort-versus-result on that last bar, but I think it may be a short-lived trade since the point and figure count gives a target of $59. Currently the divvy yield is 2.59%. At $59 it would be 2.92%.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-11-17_20-51-29.png
     
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    It appears like quality buyers stepped into the aristocrat McDonalds (MCD) at $188 but the point and figure target is $158. Likely a consolidation will ensue from here and my assumption is that it will be a redistribution range.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-11-17_21-17-15.png
     
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  19. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    On the daily chart CAT fell out of the uptrend channel and held an important axis line. Could scalp a long to see if it retests that channel. From there wait and see if it can hold above $148. I have a feeling it may need to build cause (consolidate).

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-11-18_0-22-2.png
     
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