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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The S&P futures are looking up this Thursday evening / Friday morning.

    Hourly bars:
    upload_2019-12-6_0-18-26.png
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I picked up some XOM earlier this week, to add to my other energy holdings, XLE and VLO. I liked the rising lows as it moves out of the downtrend channel. My initial dividend yield is nearly 5.1%.

    upload_2019-12-6_8-56-0.png
     
  4. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    My company struck a deal with VLO this year, ive been running 2 loads of butane a day to their plant in Ardmore... so theyre makin money for both of us:D
     
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  5. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Also interested in TER, and chip sector in general, made a decent profit off LRCX but missed most of the big run up and now seems spent of cause

    TER looks to have ~25% upside still ahead
    Screenshot_20191209-085705.jpg
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Keeping my powder dry on the silver miners. Silver still showing longer bars in the down-waves than in the up-waves, and the recent spring can't seem to get up and out of the danger zone.

    upload_2019-12-10_20-46-28.png
     
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  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    It's a beautiful thing.
    upload_2019-12-10_20-58-56.png
    I understand one of the products at Ardmore is Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG). They must be mixing your butane with propane. Butane must be a hot (dangerous) load. My old farm house up in Wisconsin keeps warm on LP gas. On behalf of all of us who rely on it, thanks for what you do, and drive carefully.
     
    #947 Onepoint272, Dec 10, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
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  8. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Thats the one... looks alot prettier from the outside

    Actually they mix the butane in gasoline for the winter blend... most (or all) fuel suppliers do this, along with other higher pressure and cheaper additives... thats why gasoline is cheaper in the winter, i always thought it was lower demand from less travel
     
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  9. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    This one found its way onto my watchlist after the 10% spike in October.. one of those "i wish i didn't miss" trades.. and in this case maybe i didn't... seeing some hesitation in moving from phase D to phase E, having retested the October spike and now continuing the advancement along the uptrending 50 MA

    Screenshot_20191228-172844.jpg
     
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  10. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Year in review for 2019:

    My personal trading account is up 15%, which marks my first year in the green for that account, which is promising and an accomplishment im proud of, even though the S&P index returned 27% over the same time span... also, if i could erase one bad trade (BA) id be up almost 20%, which would narrow that gap... but i can't, so it doesnt

    On the flip side, my sector ETF based 401k account is up 23% ytd, in which i occasionally rebalance but dont trade... also in my personal account i made 60% less trades in 2019 than in 2018

    Reflections....... over trading is a thing, unless perhaps you're a professional trader or have a lifestyle that affords the leisure time necessary for the "enterprising investor"... and, the index may make a better ally than competitor..... for 2020 im convinced that a healthy blend of index + infrequent position trades could yield a winning formula
     
  11. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    Great advice.
    What sectors are you interested in - for 2020? Personally, I'm looking at ETFs in Oil (XLE), Gold/silver miners and utilities in 2020.
     
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  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Full respect for making a nice return. :cool:

    Everyone starts out wanting to trade. Everyone. This is why I advocate splitting money exactly in half, investing half in VOO, and trading the other half. The idea is, after a year or two, people will be able to see the cost of trading. Merely under-performing market indices with trades year after year is not sufficient proof of the cost of trading for 99% of people.
     
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  13. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I had a nice run most of this year weighting in utes and reits, but now that it seems were back in bull mode ive weighted in tech and con discretionary..... im not sure about energy anymore, if the bombing of a Saudi oilfield cant rally crude then what can?
     
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  14. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Ive come to realize the merit of both approaches .... as B Graham would say, a winning trade is not profitable unless its the last trade you ever make... and R Wyckoff would say, owning securities exposes one to risk, so owning securities indefinitely logically exposes one to indefinite risk

    Theyre both right, which gives me a whole new understanding of another Wyckoff quote in reference to financial markets: "its a deeply interesting subject, the more you learn the more you realize how little you know"....... i use to think this meant that the markets are so complex you can never learn all there is to know about it, but now i feel the meaning is more that no matter how much you know and learn, youll never find the right and wromg answers youre looking for... not when two blatantly contradicting answers can both be correct
     
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    "Trades" can be executed over nano-seconds, seconds, minutes, days, weeks, months, years, or decades. I think TomB needs to be more specific as to what he believes is "trading" when making his blanket condemnations.

    This thread concerns Wyckoff's methods which are appropriate for trading in all time frames and instruments including the S&P500-emulating ETF, VOO.
     
    #955 Onepoint272, Dec 31, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
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  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I've posted this P&F of the S&P500 futures more than once and it is the primary reason the bulk of my assets are held in VOO-like instruments with a long-term trading plan and not because "Everyone wants to start out trading. Everyone." o_O

    upload_2019-12-31_5-26-24.png
     
    #956 Onepoint272, Dec 31, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
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  17. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I didn't mean to spark a trading vs investing debate, i just wanted to share my observations and thoughts on *over* trading

    Ever since i got my boat this summer my head has been more on the lake than on the markets and my trading slowed down considerably.. this turned out to be beneficial, so i figure its something to be mindful of going forward
     
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  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Looks like 4850 is the target dating wayyyy back. Crazy that the same number popped up twice.
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Here's the problem with a long-term buy-and-hold "investment" strategy. It is not, as they want you to believe, "all about time in the market" but rather it is absolutely all about "timing" the market.

     
    #959 Onepoint272, Jan 3, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    It's actually a tool to help predict when a stepping-stone re-accumulation range will break out, that is, when the projection equals the projection of the base count.

    Actually I'm cautious already, but if the S&P gets to that 4850 I'll be on high alert.

    Here's the latest published data from Shiller's CAPE, the real PE ratio. I don't think it includes December. It is getting extreme/bubbly.

    upload_2020-1-3_1-4-42.png

    And another way to look at it, showing how the real S&P price is extremely divergent from real earnings:

    upload_2020-1-3_1-8-14.png

    Explanatory link with link to Shiller's site:

    https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/
     
    #960 Onepoint272, Jan 3, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
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