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A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    That's the most important thing. Your health. Without it, there's no way to enjoy your wealth. But I am healthy and poor. Which is not so good either.
     
  2. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    In some establishments, that is an expensive gourmet delicacy.

    Had lunch today in a place which only served carnitas. 1 lb of pork cooked in lard, comes with tortillas, rice, beans, and 2 liter bottle of soda. That's it. That's how it's sold. No menu. No other options. Line out the door.
     
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    So I think I'll go ahead and trade PEP for awhile in my IRA. Friday's closing 30-min stick closed above support at the bottom of the short-term TR but given the volume, the low of that stick will probably get tested. Also, next week's pivot is just below at 136.95. I'll try to pick up 100 shares on a successful spring of the pivot, at about $137 with a stop in the 136.38 area. I might also sell the Aug 21 137 Put. Friday it was paying a premium of $1.14 at the close. So I should be able to get $1.27 or so if the underlying dips to test the pivot. That could result in either:
    • an effective cost of the shares at $135.75 if the spring is successful and the put expires worthless.
    • If the spring fails then it'll likely go to 135 so I'll stop out at 136.38 and lose $62 on the shares and about the same on the put for a total loss of $124.
    If the spring is successful then my next decision will be in the 138.67 area. If there is an upthrust there, then I sell the Aug 28 138 covered-call for about $1.25 bringing the effective cost of my 100 shares down to $134.50. Rinse and repeat.

    If the spring is successful and the price breaks out of the long-term TR, then I enjoy the ride and wait for stopping action to sell a covered-call.

    The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry ~ Robert Burns

    30-minute sticks:
    upload_2020-8-17_0-14-37.png
    Daily:
    [​IMG]
     
    #983 Onepoint272, Aug 16, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2020
    TomB16, bigbear0083 and T0rm3nted like this.
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good to see you back and in action again.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Potential short-term change of character in silver futures.

    1-hour bars Sept 4th ~6am:
    upload_2020-9-4_6-18-11.png
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Picked up some First Majestic (AG) after hours yesterday to add to my other silver miner, USAS. Both need to show a sign of strength to turn bullish.

    AG - 130-min bars:
    upload_2020-9-4_6-27-38.png
     
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  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The Doll Hair is testing the long-term stride line this month.

    Monthly Bars:
    upload_2020-9-7_21-44-49.png
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The upthrust in the doll hair back in March also marked the lows in commodities and stocks. From there it wasn't so much that commodities and stocks went up but that the doll hair went down. A deluge of Covid-19-related doll hairs (liquidity) came into the markets chasing a fixed number of assets...inflation.

    Currently the doll hair index has built enough cause to break under the long-term stride line which will have some significant world-wide re-alignment consequences. Is the Fed going to let that happen? I think so. I think they want inflation and view deflation as enemy number one. They always have; deflation is the fatal flaw of their fiat system.

    Daily Dollar Index Sept 10, 2020 at about 9:30am Chicago time:
    upload_2020-9-10_9-44-30.png
     
    #988 Onepoint272, Sep 10, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2020
    bigbear0083 and T0rm3nted like this.
  9. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Just checkin in, I haven't been on in a while either.... Onepoint, I'm simultaneously sorry to hear your leg is acting up again and glad you're feeling well enough to be here... the thread isn't the same without you

    The market has been "HOT, DON'T TOUCH" a little too much for my taste, so I've been mainly in spectator mode... but I have tried to squeeze a few trades in sideways where I think they fit

    My biggest swing and a miss recently was RGR... I was admittedly late to the rally, got in at around $73... Had a $98 target, it got to $90 and then fell from the sky... I sold at break even

    My theory, despite the unprecedented demand for Ruger products (I recently purchased a brand new shiny GP100 revolver myself), the company is not tooled or staffed to keep up with it... the last ER left alot wanting

    Screenshot_20200915-121516_thinkorswim.jpg
     
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  10. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Right now I'm holding GLD, with a $299 target... closely watching the current range for supply signature, may dump it if it keeps rallying on low volume and falling on high volume

    Also have a $35.50 bid sitting for XOM (purely for the 9% divy)

    Screenshot_20200915-123336_thinkorswim.jpg
     
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  11. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I suppose this could be considered relevant to the thread since I referenced RGR stock.... showing off my precious

    20200915_124155.jpg
     
  12. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Daily sticks for GLD in the current range... mixed signals.... lower highs and lower lows + higher volume on declines.... but, overall volume and volatility falling off...... scratching head emoji :hmm:

    Screenshot_20200915-124724_thinkorswim.jpg
     
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  13. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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  14. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I'll take that bet... it's no small feat to land oneself on the Dividend Aristocrat list, and all it takes is one slip to be booted off said list

    As the article implies, dividends are the only reason to invest in o/g at the time being.... many others (including the company I work for) have already cut divys, XOM and CVX have already weathered the anomalous negative futures storm, I wager they can maintain their listing with crude back at reasonable prices
     
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I added gold miner GFI today to my list of silver miners. Gold (continuous contract) is at the apex of a hinge on the daily. The trend is up, so unless there is a sign of weakness it's either going to head fake or explode up...or continue flat lining.
     
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  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    XOM is one of my long-term dividend holdings so I hope you're right. Are you seeing declining demand in your business?
     
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  17. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Surprisingly no, we haven't missed a beat... I'm told that's because we have a top notch marketing department... on the transport side we shifted away from LP and crude over the summer and hauled a shit ton of condensate.... and now that propane season is kicking off we're about to be balls to the wall
     
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  18. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    XOM order filled this morning @ $35.00
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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