A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah, I was back, then work and other things got hectic again.

    Yep, I'm in CCJ for the long haul and looking to pick up something else, like maybe DNN, UUUU, and yeah URA or URNM.

    This guy, Marcelo Lopez intervied by Lyn Alden on Real Vision says this:

    Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results.

    I haven't listened to the whole interview yet to find out why he likes URNM better. Chart-wise they're almost identical.

    The interview took place Feb 22, 2021.

     
    #1061 Onepoint272, Apr 14, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2021
  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    COIN, a story of accumulation:

    April 14 - First day of public trading. Open 381, high 429, low 310
    May 19 - Selling Climax (SC) marking the start of short covering
    May 26 - marked the high of the automatic (short covering) rally (AR). The bounds of the trading range are now known, 208 to 250. The original sponsors are now out of the stock and new sponsorship should begin to accumulate the stock. These are hereinafter referred to as the Composite Man (CM), an aggregate of the well capitalized strong interests. The CM likely began taking a position during the selling climax and during the upcoming trading range he will increase and improve his position by buying at the bottom of the range and selling at the top of the range but all the while net buying so as to increase his line in the stock. He sells at the top of the range to the dumb money and continues to sell so as to contain the price. He does not want it going up out of the range prematurely until he is fully invested. He does not want weak hands taking positions. The CM needs to control as much of the stock as possible so that he can make the shares available to the open market scarce. When he is ready to move it out, the scarcity of stock will drive higher prices.
    June 8 - Secondary Test (ST) of the selling climax - note reduced volume compared to at the selling climax. This indicates fewer willing sellers.
    June 28 - demand is manifest by the large upward price bar on heavy volume.
    June 29 - the price upthrusts the range (UT) with smaller price range and heavier volume (more effort and less result). The CM is selling into the demand. He is not ready for the price to leave the range, he is not fully invested.
    July 7 and 9 - more up-thrusting action on good but reduce volume compared to June 29. Same result, CM is selling into it.
    July 19 - price tests the selling climax once again on even less volume. The number of willing sellers is drying up. The CM needs to shake out as many mom and pops and joe six-packs as possible. If these weak hands remain in the stock when the CM is ready to move the stock out of the range, those weak hands will sell into the rise causing the CM to have to absorb those shares at a higher price. He needs to get them out, and the volume on June 19 is a good indication that many are out.
    July 23 - After rising to the axis (S/R) line the price turned back down to test lower but the supply of stock for sale is very small. The CM has successfully mopped up supply in the lower half of the range.
    July 26 - Demand shows itself again as the stock gaps up on heavy volume. Some of the smaller dogs, not the CM, are beginning to notice that supply is drying up, that the CM is accumulating, and want in on the action. However the small range of the bar (ignoring the gap) on the heavy volume again shows that the CM is selling into the demand.
    July 27 - the price falls as a consequence of the obvious effort-versus-result bar of June 26, but it holds the trend line defined by the lows of June 19th and June 23rd. Could this trendline be the spring board to jump over the creek and out of the trading range? Is the CM ready for that? Is he just waiting for a catalyst to entice demand, such as a little help from bitcoin futures?

    As of July 29th a conservative count on a $2 box by 3-box-reversal Point & Figure gives a target of $328. If it stays range bound that price target will increase. If it busts out of this range now, it will need to form another stepping-stone range to build cause for higher prices. My skepticism of it being ready to move is that the cause is not enough yet for a target of 381, the first trading day's open. Watching this one closely now.

    upload_2021-7-29_18-7-8.png
     
    #1062 Onepoint272, Jul 29, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2021
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  3. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    the wyckoff-ian is back. :banana:
     
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Bitcoin futures are showing similar indications as COIN, above. Note the shrinking supply of stock for sale in the bottom of the trading range and the recent showing that demand is present.

    upload_2021-7-29_20-15-38.png
     
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    AMD appears to have legs, near term, to 118. However, a larger count gives a target of 271.

    upload_2021-7-29_22-2-38.png
     
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  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I miss my $4 entry. Why oh why did I sell at $15
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The AMZN chart is not a pretty picture.

    An Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) is identified by a stock that has moved up, climaxed (BC), and then moves laterally in a trading range building cause, and then moves into new high ground on an increase in volume with relatively narrowing of spread and then returns to the average level of closes. What it indicates is that the entire lateral move in the trading range was NOT re-accumulation, but was instead distribution. That is, the big smart money, the Composite Man (CM), was distributing the stock to funds and speculators, to the public. The public being fragmented and relatively under-capitalized cannot control the price like the CM can.

    This definition appears to describe the action in AMZN which climaxed in early September of 2020. After the ER, price fell right to the point of Preliminary Supply (PSY), the point where we first saw big-money liquidation, falling there with a large supply of stock (volume) coming into the open market, marking a sign of weakness (SOW), another necessary signal to show the TR was distribution and that the long-term uptrend in the background can now be reversed. I guess it is possible the CM could begin to re-accumulate in the lower bounds of the TR. Regardless, we now have a situation where the stock should not be long-term longed., imo, until some cause is built and demand has proven itself.

    upload_2021-7-31_12-42-20.png
     
    #1067 Onepoint272, Jul 31, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Potential upside for the Dow Jones Industrials e-mini futures:

    upload_2021-7-31_13-30-32.png
     
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  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    TMF, similar to TLT but leveraged 3X, built cause in an accumulation trading range with a Point & Figure target of 32.50. It marked up to a buying climax (BC) at 31.36 after overthrowing the uptrend channel and now appears to have established a trading range between 31.36 and 28.06, an 11.8% range. There's a good chance the BC will get retested. It has made 4 attempts to get back above the level of preliminary supply (PSY) and on that 4th attempt on Fryday failed to do so while expending increased effort (see volume) with little result (price movement). So there are still sellers present. I suspect it may test lower next week and offer a low risk buying opportunity to capture a portion of the 11.8% range.

    upload_2021-8-1_0-9-35.png
     
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  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    TMF broke above the PSY line to test the BC bar without me. The attempts to break above the PSY line turned out to be absorption of sellers. Is it done? I dunno, doesn't matter, I'll wait for it to test lower, at the PSY line perhaps, on diminished supply.

    upload_2021-8-2_23-20-47.png
     
    #1070 Onepoint272, Aug 3, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2021
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  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The story from above continues as COIN hugs the axis line on diminished supply. Getting close to pulling the trigger on this one.

    upload_2021-8-3_0-39-15.png
     
    #1071 Onepoint272, Aug 3, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2021
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Nvidia appears to be absorbing sellers at the level of previous selling bars and not backing down. In at 155 and thinking about adding here. A point and figure count shows it has legs to 399.

    upload_2021-8-3_1-51-34.png
     
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  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Added 33.3% to my position in NVDA just after the close at 198.00. Average entry now raised from 155.44 to 169.62. It is still working between the selling bars of July 15 and 16. I believe the sellers are being absorbed in here. Earnings report is 2 weeks away. Long term, the point and figure count gives a target of 399, a double from here.

    upload_2021-8-3_16-13-53.png
     
  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    COIN was down on increased volume today, but it tested and closed above the reaction bar of July 27 and it filled the gap-up of July 26, both on lower volume. Less supply came into the market and it took 5 bars to retest July 27 and 6 bars to take back the gap-up. The point and figure count now gives an upside target of 390, above the open of the first day of trading at 381 but not quite to the high of that day at 429.

    A buy-stop just above today's high may be the order of the day tomorrow.

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2021-8-4_0-15-25.png
     
    #1074 Onepoint272, Aug 4, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2021
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Picked up some COIN this morning. As usual got busy with work and missed it crossing above yesterday's high at 235.69. Shuda just put in a buy-stop order. Anyway, got in at 238.00. Currently pushing on 240. Would like to see a sign of strength (SOS) now.
     
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  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    As the trading range developed, price broke above the long-term stride, the supply at the bottom of the range steadily decreased, the up-waves were stronger than the down-waves, and there were rising supports. COIN now needs to show a sign of strength (SOS) since supply (selling) is in the background (the decline from the IPO). That is, demand needs to prove itself. The demand bar today is a good start, a big up bar, but not on significant volume that stands out on the chart. From here 3 things could happen, 1) the CM (the composite man=aggregate of big money players/new sponsorship) sells into demand since he is not ready to take it higher. That is he is not fully invested and therefore has not made the stock scarce enough for the long pull he is looking to get, 2) the funds and specs fail to take the baton to drive the price higher, i.e., a lack of demand, or 3) the funds and specs take the baton and drive the stock higher by trading the few shares available which are not locked up by the CM.

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2021-8-4_22-32-23.png
     
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  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Lest we forget where we are in the bull market and get too greedy:

    upload_2021-8-4_23-24-51.png

    Short term we need to build more cause, and long term we're almost out of fuel too.
     
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Coin is showing strength, another bigger green stick, up as much as 13-plus percent on the day so far. It has now broken above the trading range and gunning for the high of the June 29th upthrust at 261. I suspect it won't test that high today, which is best I think. It can attack it tomorrow when it rested, relaxed, and raring to go again.
     
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  19. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    digging the coin pick. i'm going to fall off the wagon and start trading again if don't stay away from this thread.
     
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Sorry about the bad influence...nahh...not really. :lauging:

    COIN will be testing the high of the June 29th upthrust. We will just need to see if it can hold above it. As I said before, there are 3 things that could happen, 1) the CM (the composite man=aggregate of big money players/new sponsorship) sells into demand since he is not ready to take it higher. That is, he is not fully invested and therefore has not made the stock scarce enough for the long pull he is looking to get, 2) the funds and specs fail to take the baton to drive the price higher, i.e., a lack of demand, or 3) the funds and specs take the baton and drive the stock higher by trading the few shares available which are not locked up by the CM.

    Daily bars as of close Thursday, Aug 5th:
    upload_2021-8-6_8-28-5.png
     
    #1080 Onepoint272, Aug 6, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2021
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