A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Door #2 I think, the funds and specs failed to take the baton to drive the price higher, i.e., a lack of demand. There are a lot of trapped sellers above 259, as indicated by the yellow circles, that need to be taken out of the picture. I suspect it'll need to build some short term cause between 250 and 259 or maybe even 240 to 259 before it can break, to whittle away at those sellers. As a bonus, it'll then look like the classic bullish head and shoulders pattern that will also attract the mechanical break-out traders. Further the additional cause will likely raise the point and figure target to the all time high on the first day of trading, 429, a logical spot for it to pause.

    upload_2021-8-7_13-17-26.png
     
    #1081 Onepoint272, Aug 7, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2021
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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    On 30-minute bars, an axis line was developed at 252.95 that should act as some support intraday.

    upload_2021-8-7_14-9-52.png
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    TMF (3x leveraged version of TLT) needs to build cause, that is, the CM needs to re-acquire stock from the weak hands. Waiting to see a spring (test and close above) of the automatic reaction (AR).

    upload_2021-8-8_22-46-51.png
     
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Holding NVDA with average entry of 169.62. Point and figure count target is 399.

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2021-8-8_23-27-55.png
     
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  5. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    hey, @Onepoint272 , regarding coin, the chorus of this song explains what i would do were i in your shoes.

     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Man that takes me back in time to when I was 15, 16 or 17. I believe I had that on 8-track in my Fiat Sport Spyder convertible and then on cassette in my 66 Mustang Fastback. Cool cars were so cheap then.

    On COIN, rather than absorb all the sellers at 259 to 261, the CM just gapped it above them. I'll hang in there awhile longer.
     
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The Doll-hair is loosing steam, showing shorting of thrust the past couple days on shrinking volume as it comes in to test resistance. A reversal could be good for the commodes and stonks.

    upload_2021-8-10_15-35-11.png
     
    #1087 Onepoint272, Aug 10, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2021
  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I'm feeling better about my 12.90 entry in CCJ (uranium). Three supports on shrinking volume...supply of stock for sale dried up...the CM appears to have tied-up most of the stock. My long-term point and figure count shows a target of 41.

    upload_2021-8-10_16-8-13.png
     
    #1088 Onepoint272, Aug 10, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2021
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  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    TMF, the 3x leveraged version of the TLT, is coming in for a landing (rates still rising). It blew through the automatic reaction (AR) level. Waiting for stopping action and a spring back into the range.

    upload_2021-8-10_17-40-32.png
     
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  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Archiving from the AMD thread:

    Not a good set-up for me yet. It broke above the downtrend channel, morphing into a trading range (TR) but since supply is in the background (the downtrend) it needs to prove to me that demand is present in the right-hand side of the TR (right of the secondary test (ST)). This morning, it tested that axis line and the selling climax (SC) bar on lighter volume and then went up to find willing sellers, but got stalled at the top of the TR. It could be absorption (CM absorbing sellers) but since it needs to show demand and the low volume does not show strong demand, I think it is a case of lack of demand and phase B of the TR will continue and it will test lower. Since supply is in the background it can just drift lower. However if it tests lower with some sort of capitulating stopping action or the supply dies on the vine, then I'm in, or I'm wrong, whatever, there's always another trade.

    30-minute bars:
    [​IMG]


    Further analysis zooming in on 10-minute bars:

    upload_2021-8-12_0-11-29.png

     
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  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Still holding COIN from 238. Gapped above resistance again, this time after the ER. It then sold off most of the day, but the market has a right to correct, it has demand in the background, it has built no cause for a sustained move down, and comparatively speaking I don't see excessive supply. Again, long term, it has built cause for a move to 390, however 310 may require re-accumulation by the CM.

    30-minute bars:
    upload_2021-8-12_1-16-36.png
     
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  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well fine then, follow Bitcoin and back down to 261 support :mad2:.
     
  13. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yeah bitcoin is a wild ride. no rhyme or reason. mr wycoff himself would be scratching his head.
     
  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well that, and also, I chose to ignore that stopping-action daily bar on Wednesday. So this move down is the "back up to the creek" and should be about done. It wasn't totally unexpected, just a little sooner than expected. Need to think about adding to my position soon.
     
  15. moss_sumit

    moss_sumit Member

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    @Onepoint272 - you mentioned GIL (Gildan Activewear) sometime back. It is looking like a nice setup now. My price target is mid-40s on this.
     
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yep, I wish I was watching it those last few days in July and 1st few in August. Nice up-wave from there, which could be your SOS.

    August 11th was a major Effort vs Result bar, but then it pushed thru higher, so would assume absorption on the 11th. I'd probably put a stop under the low of the bar of the 11th. It could still spring the high of that bar, but if it gets under the bar, seems to me that would be the moment of truth.
     
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  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Bot some AMD after hours. Couldn't watch it today, otherwise would have bot it about 30 minutes into trading when the SOS was manifested...picture of classic Wyckoff.

    10-minute bars:
    upload_2021-8-13_19-0-36.png
     
    #1097 Onepoint272, Aug 13, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2021
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  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    My target from the short-term count was hit 7 trading days ago on the buying climax (BC) of August 4th. Now it has completed an Automatic Reaction (AR) and should build cause in a trading range bounded by the BC (122) and AR (104) for another leg up. The long term count gives a target of 271. (the last column of Xs occurred in the SOS shown on the intra-day chart just above.)

    upload_2021-8-13_19-18-36.png
     
    #1098 Onepoint272, Aug 13, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2021
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  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Raised my stop on Facebook. After the ER, price had selling in 4 bars and then after 8 more bars has been laboring to take back only a part of that decline. On Thursday, the penultimate bar shown here, printed a spring. Springs need to lead to new highs. In this case it needs to get into that downside gap. Fryday, it could not do that. Small bar, light volume on Fryday. The whole story of the tape just seems like demand has been killed. If the spring doesn't lead to another high, then the price will go down to find demand, which would likely be down to the level or below the level I bought it and below the uptrend channel...raised my stop.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2021-8-14_1-57-44.png
     
    #1099 Onepoint272, Aug 14, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2021
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  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Southern Company (SO) paid a 66-cent dividend but only closed lower by 19 cents. The process printed a spring that tested the 64.83-edge which would have been a good point to add to my position, but missed it...dang MS-Teams meetings. If the CM continues to absorb selling just above that edge, I may get another opportunity. Near-term point and figure counts give a target range between 67 and 69. The current dividend yield is 4.03%.

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2021-8-14_12-27-38.png

    20-cent-box by 1-box-reversal Point & Figure:
    upload_2021-8-14_12-34-39.png
     
    #1100 Onepoint272, Aug 14, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2021
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