Door #2 I think, the funds and specs failed to take the baton to drive the price higher, i.e., a lack of demand. There are a lot of trapped sellers above 259, as indicated by the yellow circles, that need to be taken out of the picture. I suspect it'll need to build some short term cause between 250 and 259 or maybe even 240 to 259 before it can break, to whittle away at those sellers. As a bonus, it'll then look like the classic bullish head and shoulders pattern that will also attract the mechanical break-out traders. Further the additional cause will likely raise the point and figure target to the all time high on the first day of trading, 429, a logical spot for it to pause.