A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Onepoint272, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Stopped out of AMD for a small loss. Waiting for a low-risk re-entry.

    Stopped out of NVDA for a profit. If it springs the axis line at 193.75, may consider re-entry. However earnings release is Wednesday AH.
     
  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Stopped out of FB for a gain.

    NVDA sprung the 93.75 axis line but didn't like the low-range close. ER Wednesday AH.
     
    #1102 Onepoint272, Aug 18, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2021
  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Getting closer to a top in the ES. Base count targets 4850. High so far 4476.50. Red O s not showing yet since it needs to drop by 3 boxes or 150 points to print a reversal. So far only a 95-point drop.

    This of course is more like horse shoes than say, archery.

    $50-box by 3-box-reversal Point and Figure:
    upload_2021-8-18_22-13-4.png
     
  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I spent some time this past week paper trading XRP/USD and found it quite predictable. Upon hitting 1.29 the cause was used up and is now building more cause.

    2-cent-box by 1-box-reversal:
    upload_2021-8-21_13-6-51.png

    Possible paper trade coming in here but not a lot of cause built yet for a sustained move:

    1-hour bars:
    upload_2021-8-21_13-40-21.png
     
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Longer term: Upside potential to 1.40 and downside to 80 cents...so far based on the current cause.

    5-cent-box by 3-box-reversal:
    upload_2021-8-21_13-44-34.png
     
    #1105 Onepoint272, Aug 21, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2021
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    On my XRP paper trading experiment, it appears that the sell-stops may get hit that are sitting just below 1.05. New price objective is 98 cents, then we'll see if it springs back into the range for a buy set-up.

    2-cent-box by 1-box-reversal:
    upload_2021-8-25_5-43-51.png
     
    #1106 Onepoint272, Aug 25, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2021
  7. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    XOM: Waiting for another test lower before adding to existing position. There appears to be more supply that the CM can mop up.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2021-8-25_11-7-21.png
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The uptrend on Bitcoin futures has been weakening as judged by its inability to reach the oversold line. However, sellers are diminishing at the demand line as judged by the cumulative down-wave volumes. Could begin to consolidate, but the trend is your friend, as they say, at least until big supply comes into the market.

    upload_2021-8-25_13-53-26.png
     
  9. hitman

    hitman Well-Known Member

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    Looks like this consolidating
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    COIN did not show demand today but the next best thing, lack of supply. Despite the scary bar on Thor's Day there were none willing to sell today at much lower prices, the price had to go up to find a supply of stock for sale.

    Potential targets from point and figure 390 and 438.

    upload_2021-8-27_17-40-46.png
     
    #1110 Onepoint272, Aug 27, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2021
  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The Essenpee also showed lack of supply (rally on wider price spread with reduced volume), price had to rise to find supply, which is okay, demand has already proven itself. It still can't seem to get back up to the oversold line of the uptrend channel. We'll see if it breaks higher next week I guess.

    Point and figure target at 4850 (chart above, #1104).

    Daily bars:
    upload_2021-8-27_23-34-28.png
     
    #1111 Onepoint272, Aug 28, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2021
  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Haven't added to XOM yet. I'd still like to see a better re-test of the spring which was lower than the previous spring. It appears like supply (sellers) came into the market today as judged by that small-range upthrust bar on increased volume at resistance. Waiting.

    upload_2021-8-28_0-6-28.png
     
  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    On XRP, lack of supply occurred at 1.05, resulting in no penetration of support, buyers entered and a #3 spring was the result, which, as is typical, resulted in a strong rally. Recent action shows a lack of demand. More on this later.

    4-hour bars:
    upload_2021-8-28_0-45-51.png
     
  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Reviewing one of my long-term divvy stocks, MET which is near the top (over-bought line) of a long-term uptrend channel (the nearly-flat faded blue line) and back in May and June over threw the long term uptrend channel and then fell out of an intermediate-term uptrend channel (white lines) and is in the initial forming of trading range (TR) shown in the blue box. Once the secondary test (ST) is printed that will confirm the end of the intermediate uptrend and will result in months of building cause.

    Shorter term, the last TR (shown in tan) has cause built for a potential target of $65, which coincides with the top of the longest-term uptrend over-bought line and just above the top of the supply- and sign-of-weakness-bar at $64.14. On Fryday supply (sellers) showed up, so I suspect it may back down a bit before making another run higher.

    Daily Bars:
    upload_2021-8-28_23-0-4.png
     
    #1114 Onepoint272, Aug 29, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2021
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  15. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    bumping this one for @BenGeeMan who just joined. see new member intros..
     
  16. BenGeeMan

    BenGeeMan New Member

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  17. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    hey, @BenGeeMan , can you run tesla through the wyckoff model and give us some good news as to where are going? thanks.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. BenGeeMan

    BenGeeMan New Member

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    Hi just got back off holiday. Ill have a look at it tomorrow and let you know what I come up with!
     
  19. BenGeeMan

    BenGeeMan New Member

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    Hi So here is how I see it.. please feel free to tear me apart.

    https://imgur.com/a/zz8fMrc

    So basically TSLA went through accumulation, markup, re-accumulation, further markup and now finds itself in a trading range since 2021

    https://imgur.com/meACDNe

    In the trading range that began around 2021 we see a decline in volume as we go up to the BC and a further reduction into the AR suggesting that supply isnt really coming onto the market. We then go through a sustained period of inactivity so although volatility increases in phase B its 'weak hands; rather than institutions.

    https://imgur.com/VvLYrHx

    Then if we switch down to the daily I can see the spring has formed a trading range that begins around Feb 2023. Again vol diminishes on the reaction. There is yet another (less impressive spring/ LPS) we get a minor SOS, and BUA which then leads to a BUA trading range which does 2 things buying on the way up and again reduced volume on the reaction and it springs on 20th of this month.. there is a test and a SOS bar.

    So it looks like reaccumulation to me. I havent done any P&F counts as there is considerable cause from the 2021 trading range but there are some targets that have to be broken before we get to new terirory.

    So if buying today and today is a good entry stop would be $210 and targets become
    $300
    $315
    $380
    $400
    $410
    $the moon

    none of these targets have been defined by high volume so if volume comes in the move would be swift


    Another entry might be to wait for it to pass $315, let it retest and take the entry there.

    Hope that makes sense!!

    Happy trading
     
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  20. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    thanks, bgm. fyi. you can right click on the charts you linked and paste them here.

    [​IMG]
     

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