Busy trading day! Got stopped out of DG, bummer, but not really... Got the pull back I asked for in RACE, so I jumped back in at $135.42.. which means I only gave up 11 points (face palm).... this time my stop is at the closing price May 3rd, which is where demand comes in (thanks @Onepoint272 ) before the two gaps up...... a good trade is a good trade, if the p&f objective is reached, theres still >20% to be had Also, pulled the trigger on COP... Been stalking for a bit, its been holding near the top of my RSI sorted energy sector watchlist, (and energy has been showing strength lately if youre living under a rock)... fairly clean accumulation range and break out on the chart, with p&f objective near the ATH, which would yield about 30% from here.......... good spot to be I think
also noticed I got a little dividend from RACE before getting stopped out last time, so I guess I did a hair better than break even.... but my statement also says "foreign tax withheld"..... what kinda crap is that???..... They took like 40%!...damnit Italy!
BOT = Bought On Touch, Bought On Test maybe? And hi, forum newbie here. I have been studying VSA, VPA, David Weis and Wyckoff for a (short) while now. Good stuff in this thread!
Welcome Ingmar. I have David Weis's book "Trades About to Happen", it's good stuff. I use a reasonable facsimile of his Weis Wave Volume indicator, however I don't use it to its full potential. I need to work on that but I am still working a job, so these things come more slowly. Probably the very first mention of "Wyckoff" that I heard was from Tom O'Brien back about 2003, however imo he butchered the method. He gets some of the concepts but totally misses it as a whole. For example, he did not appear to understand how or why a mark-up can occur on light volume, consequently he has been incessantly bearish during bull markets. But about that same time, 2003, I looked into Wyckoff and found Gary Fullet and it was through some of his tutorial audio transcripts that I was introduced to the 3 Wyckoff principals: Supply vs Demand, Cause vs Effect, Effort vs Result. Understanding those, were like a huge light being turned on. But it has been a slow slog to abandon all other misleading methods and allow only price and volume to rule. I recently added FIVE, LGND, and ADBE. I'm a little concerned with LGND given the effort vs result of the past week and on Friday. It closed high end for the week and for the day on Friday, but it showed a lot of volume for the price progress. Weekly: I'm thinking of putting a stop at about 190 because if it goes below Friday's low it'll probably test lower and I think it'll test 179 and I can buy it back there. Daily:
This appears to be a more satisfying labeling for LGND, giving a more conservative 3x3 P&F objective = 219. Weekly:
@Onepoint272 Are you still watching AMD? You got any thoughts on it after all of the action that's taken place the last few weeks? Always like seeing what your thoughts are. If you're not still watching it, don't go out of your way to analyze it.
Dang yeah, I got stopped out of that and got so busy with work I missed the recent prolonged rally. I should've got back in during that absorption (bull flag) right after the ER. Congrats if you've been sticking with it. I may look to buy on a dip into 12.45. I would like to see a deeper dip, but I'm not confident that will happen. The base count objective is 37.50 and the upside objective for the current range is 39.50....so it is ready. Daily: Weekly:
Hi! I like your charts Onepoint! ! I have that book as well, and there's excellent webinars on the web as well where David Weis explains his style. I like it, it's dynamic and offers many entries. As he always says, one could make a living trading just springs and upthrusts. You inspired me to take a look as well. I drew a chart for the daily. I believe there's definately heavy selling going on on that last bar. Price went to the moon after the earnings report and gapped over the second creek out of the trading range. It also reached the supply edge of the upgoing channel, so that ads to me expecting price to fall again next week, This was a nice exercise and i think the fastest re-accumulation range i saw so far. (Do note, i normally analyse forex charts, this is a new exercise for me.) I wouldn't be surprised if price falls back into the range to continue accumulating some more. Curious about what you think about my doodles, i'm not a veteran Wyckoff-ian
Maybe i should have posted above post in my own journal and tagged you. Please let me know what's most appropriate.
Gracia, thanks for the analysis. Yeah, I was still holding half of my original position, and had added on multiple times on dips. Sorry to hear you got stopped out and missed the ride up due to work. I would not mind the dip and some consolidation so you can get back in. Needs to get out of the overbought territory and rest for awhile before it continues the next leg up in my opinion. Thanks again for taking the time.
This thread is for anybody that wants to discuss Wyckoff or bounce ideas off other Wyckoff students. I started it but I don't claim it or use it as a journal necessarily. So please do participate. As to your labeling of LGND I agree with your PSY, BC, AR, and the second ST. I usually define my TR rectangle by the BC and AR. Here is a cut and paste from Jim Forte's article, "Anatomy of a Trading Range".
Here are the updated holdings of FFTY, the ETF based on the Investor Business Daily (IBD) 50 ordered by % of holdings thanks to Morningstar. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=FFTY
Looking at that list, Warrior Met Coal is new to me. Looking it up on finviz, it says it's in the insurance industry. Seems it is confused with a company named "HCC". So how did Warrior Met Coal get the ticker HCC, is it a spinoff?
HCC is an acronym for "Hard Coking Coal" which is a very clean and hard coal used in metallurgy, e.g., to make steel, a matrix of Iron and Carbon. (Steel alloys have some of the carbon atoms displaced by other metals, like chromium for stainless steel). The company has only been around since April of 2017. It is probably the resurrection of that Alabama coal company that went belly up in the Obama years, and that I used to trade, but my memory is failing me. I think it started with a "W". I think Rock used to trade it some too, maybe he would remember. EDIT: I remember now, "Walter Energy", ticker WLT. HCC could be the new issue of that bankrupt company.
FIVE, Five Below, is a recent acquisition for me at 73.45 this past week. Seems to me like a stupid store, but what do I know or care about that? They're growing, adding stores, and the stock is moving.
So SEDG, SolarEdge Technologies, hit the No. 1 holding on the FFTY (IBD 50) this week. They had a SOS on the news that California is mandating that all new homes have solar panels by 2020. On the daily it appears like nobody is wanting to take profits, no supply showing up after the recent mark-up.
I'm not the cruising type but this ship looks ready to sail...no one selling their tickets down here. Weekly:
BZUN is the no. 2 holding in the FFTY (IBD 50 ETF). It should be bought.....probably sooner than later. Daily:
Whats the significance of the IBD list? I heard some chatter on CNBC the other day about ETF's indexed off top hedge fund holdings... But IBD wasn't one of em
