I had a live chat with silver-dragon on our live chat this week and posted a quick summary of VSTO on there. Just dropping it in here for those that might not do live chat... JerryM-Today at 10:19 AM @silver-dragon Earlier in the week we talked about VSTO and I said I would do a better look at them later. I did a value analysis on them today and it does look pretty good as a value stock. I came up with a 5 year margin of safety of 30% and a 10 year margin of safety at 48% which is pretty good. The thing to remember about a value analysis is that it is intended for more of a long term view as the very nature of a value trade is based on unrecognized value which still has to be discovered by the buyer. Hear is a link to the spreadsheet I use for the analysis... https://1drv.ms/x/s!ApcKqV3khCnAgZ1hpJr_dzGM9GDrAw Workshop Reduction Calculator V8 - Copy.xlsx Microsoft Excel Workbook Here is the link to the company report in case you don't have it from our last conversation about this one... https://1drv.ms/b/s!ApcKqV3khCnAgZ1ckaHPPxgj6qC0Jw VSTO-VistaOutdoorReport.pdf PDF File As a result of looking at this I have added it to my "maybe" list. It certainly does look interesting
Took a 2/3rd size position (100 shares) on this Aug 30th. Leaving a little room to add if I want. Full size for my percentages would be 150 shares. This is longer term so we'll see how it works out.
VSTO has a footprint similar to BBBY, both are consumer cyclical, both were tanking and both are now moving up on the Target ER news. Worth a look.
VSTO Breaking out here. A top ammo, gun accessory, gun cleaning fluid, grilling, backyard/patio, and outdoor adventure equipment manufacturer. Smith & Wesson is selling out across the nation and its stock is at all time highs given state of the nation, covid, protests and unrest. COVID lockdown ending but its not a return to normalcy. I think people still won't be going to indoor events as much and will perhaps be looking at outdoor activities. Lots of people were outdoors (before the protests) where I live. CEO recently bought $250k worth of stock at $7.11 Also look at Google Trends for searches of "Bullets" "Camping" etc are all trending up. The company is also doing a lot of hiring right now. All signs are pointing to higher demand these days. Looking to buy shares around here. Also selling some July $12.5 covered calls for $1 in case it tests $10 levels and because $12.5 is next resistance Next earnings release ~Aug 6 after call expiry also Happy hunting and cheers yall
Just listened to the SWBI earnings call. They said 2.5 million first time gun owners entered the market in the last few weeks! They mentioned 2 types of demand surges in the USA. Fear of second ammendment rights being limited (the surge during the Obama years) and fear of safety. They attributed their strong quarter to gun sales from “fears of safety” not “fear of 2nd ammendment rights being restricted” But... Supreme Court didn’t pick up a major 2nd ammendment case earlier this week from the states, so that coupled with republicans losing ground in the presidential election should be a good secondary tailwind. (In my opinion) They said they cannot provide guidance until they file their 10k, it should be out in a few weeks. So they couldn’t comment on guidance but it was a very strong call overall. Don’t care about SWBI much, I sold some July puts that are profitable, but this bodes really well for VSTO as ammo is 50% of their rev. Likening this, and excited to see VSTO hopefully confirm the breakout tomorrow. Cheers and take care yall ✌
Vista Outdoor Reports Ammo Surge -- Market Talk 7:49 am ET November 4, 2021 (Dow Jones) Print 0749 ET - Vista Outdoor reports a 65% surge in fiscal 2Q ammunition sales, a sign that Americans aren't just buying more guns, they're prepared to load them too. Pricing has improved across the industry as inventories have been run down, and fiscal 2022 sales and profit guidance is above the top end of analysts' estimates. Profits in the quarter also blew past estimates, with the stock up 7% in pre-open trade. ([email protected]) (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 04, 2021 07:49 ET (11:49 GMT) Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
