ACHR - Archer Aviation Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by TomB16, Jan 23, 2023.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This is an interesting company to me because I believe they have an opportunity to significantly increase the efficiency of the propulsion they are using. This is not a criticism. Their fans are good but the next generation will bring a lot to this aircraft.

    Second, they have strong funding and manufacturing backing with Stellantis. This gives them credibility, as well as an excellent chance to succeed where others will not. This advantage will continue as long as Stellantis is solvent (note: I am skeptical about the long term solvency of Stellantis... I sincerely apologize to those who do not share my skeptical view of legacy auto).

    Archer does not have to create an aircraft that can do everything. They just need to build an aircraft that is interesting for a small niche, as an entry or even a beach head into electrical aviation, to succeed. They absolutely do not need to put Boeing and Airbus out of business.

    VTOL makes this an interesting short range helicopter replacement. Helicopters have extremely high cost per flight hour so this appears to be low hanging fruit.

    On the down side....

    They are going to struggle with range and cycle times, even if the 100 mile range specification proves to be a conservative number. They won't be allowed to use all of the range, since that would be a fatal mistake, so that would mean perhaps a real range of 35 miles (35 miles each way plus a pair of vertical takeoffs). That still makes it a high value platform for airport shuttle service and urban ultra-high-speed package delivery.

    The problem will be the charge time between flights. Operators will need to have extra aircraft if they need continuous operation.

    Assuming an operating radius of 35 miles and speed of 75 mph, that will be a 30 minute trip from their base of operations to a target destination, followed by a 30 minute return trip. I will speculate one hour to recharge so this craft will have 50% service duty (speculated) and I think that is best case. Far more likely case is 4 hour charge time so it will have 20% service duty or about 5 flights per day assuming 24 hour operation.

    So, operators are going to need a whole bunch of aircraft...

    More numbers in a bit.
     
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  2. rsandberg7425

    rsandberg7425 New Member

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    The engineering company I work for has developed and is installing a test machine for their electric motors.
    An interesting company and product indeed...
     
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I will post some numbers that should give the people who know the real numbers a good laugh. I just do my best. :)

    If we assume 4 PAX, a pilot, and some luggage, that is conservatively 1250 pounds. I am going to speculate the aircraft weighs 3750# because that will round my numbers. :biggrin:

    An efficient helicopter can fly about 5.5 pounds per horsepower. Let's assume this craft is a world beater at 6 pounds per horsepower.

    This craft will need about 850 hp to fly when fully loaded.

    At 750 Watts per horsepower, that comes to 640,000 Watts. I have previously guessed it has roughly one hour of range so let's use that to arrive at 640 KWh pack size (pretty wild guess). I had previously guessed at 850 KWh pack size but let's go with the smaller pack as a best case scenario.

    This is why I am skeptical of the service duty of this craft.

    The pack should be chargeable at a rate of 650KW. 1C charging is no big deal, these days. I believe they will not charge above 1C because there is no way they will take the weight of active pack cooling. The problem will be finding 650KW electrical service. This is going to require high voltage, 3 phase power.

    The aircraft hangars I've been in have not had this level of electrical service but it is not beyond imagination the service could be brought in.

    If they can find 500KW electrical service, it will take about 90 minutes to fully charge the pack. This assumes state of the art batteries, which I think is a reasonable guess. No battery can take full current for an entire charge cycle so a 90 minute charge is highly optimistic.

    Based on this Janga tower of wild guesses, one aircraft should be able to make a max range flight every 2.5 hours. Again, this is an extremely optimistic guess with no concession to parasitic losses.

    In order to operate 4 flights per hour, they are going to need 10 aircraft. Perhaps numbers with a vague resemblance of these are the reason Archer planed production of this craft to scale to thousands of units per year.

    Further, if we consider a fleet of 10 aircraft with more than half charging, at any given time, that means 6 x 500 KW charge load or 3 megawatts of constant charging. That is going to require some pretty big wire. They are going to need to connect into the distribution system. It will probably cost more than one aircraft to bring in the proper electrical service.
     
    #4 TomB16, Jan 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023
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  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Thank you to T0rm3nted for mentioning the Archer / Stellantis partnership. I was unaware until you mentioned it.

    Most will be happy to not read this....

    This is the first time a legacy automaker has demonstrated thought process that is the least bit compelling. IMO, this is a brilliant stroke on the part of Stellantis executives.

    Here’s why.

    Legacy auto sat on their hands for 15 years and laughed while Tesla built a death star that is aimed at their truck nuts. Their combined strategic ineptitude has been heartbreaking.

    At this point, I estimate Tesla has around 150 Gwh of battery supply plus, at least, 5 Gwh for energy storage. (Calculated based on 75 Kwh average per car and 2M vehicle annual forward production). What’s more, look at how solid those supplies are. Tesla has solid partnerships and close ties to both CATL and Panasonic. They also have a substantial relationship with LG.

    Panasonic has tried to escape Tesla’s grasp. They failed. Now they are racing to be the first volume supplier of 4680 cells to Tesla. All battery roads lead to Tesla, at the moment.

    As legacy auto learns how to operate with plummeting sales, consider the investment they need to fund. If they outsource battery production, they have no price leverage. If they insource battery production, they have a massive investment and a rough ride ahead. Scaling a battery plant while maintaining reasonable yield is not as simple as Tesla blogs make it sound. Everyone who has tried has struggled. Including Tesla. Including Panasonic. Including CATL. Including LG.

    So, declining revenues coupled with exponentially increasing development cost plus increased material costs is going to become unsustainable real quick.

    I’m sure the government will step in and pour massive money on legacy auto, at some point. It might help but infinite money does not solve all problems so we will have to see how that turns out.

    Even if legacy auto could make compelling cars with comparable cost base to Tesla, they will be killed by self driving.

    It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which legacy auto can survive.

    Then Stellantis partnered with Archer. This initially seemed like a strange partnership until I thought about it...

    What’s going to happen when transportation turns into a service? Join the Tesla ride share network? Sure but what if there were “flying cars” that could shuttle you around? Suddenly, Tesla’s check mate move isn’t as obvious. Sure, Tesla will likely win and dominate transport but there will always be room for ultra-fast transport of passengers and cargo.

    Even if the Archer Stellantis partnership fails, I consider this a brilliant move. Kudos to Carlos Tavares and his executive team for thinking about what comes next, instead of trying to out swim Michael Phelps in the 400 meter butterfly back flop.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Competitors are:

    Vertical Aerospace
    Lilium
    Joby

    Hyundai is also working on an e-VTOL taxi.
     
    #6 TomB16, Jan 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2023
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I am not an aeronautical engineer. I've taken exactly one university level aero engineering class decades ago so this is the level of my ignorance.

    But...

    Lilium has declared their approach superior to Archer. They claim Archer's design is less efficient, will not scale, etc.

    When I look at the Lilium design, I see a ton of structure and cowling that doesn't seem needed. I see a lot of weight, drag, and complexity. I just don't see how tiny, ultra-high velocity air flows can be as efficient as the smaller number of large, lower speed, air flows that Archer uses.

    Archer's design, particularly their prop approach, appears vastly superior to me at the needed speeds. Lower RPM will play into the electric motor's strength. Props don't need gearing but the ducted fan probably does. In the future, perhaps they can rear, non-rotating, fans behind the propellers to smooth the airflow and have even more of an efficiency advantage?

    Perhaps someone with more aerodynamic knowledge can bring us up to speed? I would appreciate a sanity check at the least or go ahead and tear me a new butt hole at the most. :biggrin:
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    the right side gap is filled. what's it gonna do now?


    [​IMG]
     
  8. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    Archer to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
    7:00 am ET February 2, 2023 (BusinessWire) Print

    Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE: ACHR) today announced that the Company will participate in the following investor conferences:

    Credit Suisse's 28th Annual Energy Summit in Vail, CO on February 27, 2023 Raymond James' 44th Annual Institutional Investors Conference in Orlando, FL on March 7, 2023 J.P. Morgan's 2023 Industrials Conference in New York, NY on March 14, 2023

    In addition to the above live conferences, Archer will be participating in the following virtual conference:

    Baird's Vehicle Tech & Mobility Conference to be held virtually on February 15, 2023

    To receive additional information on the conferences or schedule a meeting with Archer's executive team, please contact your representative at the appropriate bank.

    About Archer

    Archer is designing and developing electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for use in urban air mobility networks. Archer's mission is to unlock the skies, freeing everyone to reimagine how they move and spend time. Archer's team is based in Santa Clara, CA. To learn more, visit www.archer.com.

    View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230202005416/en/

    SOURCE: Archer Aviation

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Been watching this one since Tom started this thread. First, I do not like SPACs because they rarely have any return for the ones that invest in them. Second, the warrants are basically just a dilution process that floods the market even more. To date the overwhelming majority of SPACs that have hit the market have been nothing but suicide for the early investors. This one keeps getting cheaper by the day. Sorry but I'm putting this one in the " a fool and his money soon part" category. If you have the 5-10 year outlook like Cathie Wood and don't mind being upside down with your investment then you may decide to join the ARK club. Personally I think you'd have better success waiting for the cow to jump over the moon.
     
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  10. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Dammit Man. :lauging:
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I share your view regarding early investment, Spud.

    I am tracking Archer and expect to continue doing so until it becomes clear they are going to do well in the P2P, ultra short haul, transport market.

    You won't see me putting money into this thing for some years, if ever, but I have to plant a lot of seeds to get a plant to grow. :)
     
    #12 TomB16, Feb 8, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2023
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  12. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Hybrids typically don't produce seeds. SPACs have a solid history of screwing investors, I'm afraid your tractor is plowing the wrong field.

    Remember your SPCE journey? It's another SPAC.
    :popcorn:
     
  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I know two people from the Stellantis side who are going to work there within the next few months.
     
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps I should put some quantitative context around my point of view.

    Context example 1:

    1978 - Moller announces intent to build flying car - TomB chance of success 0%
    1989 - Moller demonstrates prototype Skycar tethered to a crane - TomB chance of success 0%
    2004 - Moller demonstrates Skycar tethered to the ground - TomB chance of success 0%
    2023 - Idea the Skycar can ever become a thing in any way - TomB chance of success 0%

    Context example 2:

    2004 - Elon Musk joins Tesla - TomB chance of success 0%
    2008 - Tesla indroduces first Roadster - TomB chance of success 0%
    2012 - Tesla introduces the first Model S - TomB chance of success 0%
    2014 - Tesla ships 35K Model S - TomB blown away... chance of success 0.5%
    2015 - Tesla ships 50K Model S, starts building Giga Nevada - TomB confused about bankruptcy delay... chance of success 1%
    2016 - Giga Nevada looks like a building, battery production begins, announce Model 3, announce PowerWall - TomB revelation... thinks 50% chance of success (in retrospect, actually about 15%), buys in with thoughts of 10x in 10 years
    2018 - Tesla delivers quarter million vehicles, PowerWall back orders ridiculous - TomB chance of success 80% (in retrospect, probably a bit high but close)


    Archer.

    2018 - Archer founded - TomB retrospective chance of success 0.01%
    2021 - First untethered hover and public demonstration - TomB retrospective chance of success 0.10%
    2022 - Midnight production aircraft introduced - TomB retrospective chance of success 1%
    2023 - Archer Stellantis partnership - TomB chance of success 2%
    Future 1 - Successful Midnight experimental tests - TomB chance of success 4%
    Future 2 - Midnight certification - TomB chance of success 5%
    Future 3 - Midnight operating successfully in early public service - TomB chance of success 7.5%
    Future 4 - Small scale public service and announcement of next generation platform with improvements - TomB chance of success 10% (thinking of buying in)
    Future 5 - NG aircraft enters service and looks good - TomB chance of success 30% (Now looking to buy in if financials conducive... ie... sufficiently capitalized and sufficient demand)



    That's where I would want to go. :)
     
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  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just read some terrible news for Archer.

    Deutsche Bank just analyzed Archer as a buy. Considering DB is the sleaziest bank going, that does not bode well.

    Meanwhile, the company appears to be moving everything forward. I really hope they make it and I believe they have a chance. :thumbsup:
     
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  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Here is something to go along with you guys discussion...

    [​IMG]

    United Airlines and Archer Aviation plan to significantly reduce airport commute time in Chicago by announcing the city's first commercial air taxi route. The commute from Chicago O’Hare airport to the city, which currently takes more than an hour during peak time, will be covered in just 10 minutes following the air taxi’s introduction.

    Traveling from Chicago city center to O’Hare International Airport will become much faster in the next couple of years, with United Airlines and Archer Aviation joining hands to start an air taxi service.

    Both have selected O’Hare International Airport (ORD) to Vertiport Chicago as the next point-to-point route in which they will utilize Archer’s electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft as part of their urban air mobility (UAM) network buildout. The plan is to begin services in 2025.

    Vertiport Chicago, North America’s largest vertical aircraft takeoff and landing facility, is located in the Illinois Medical District near the Chicago Loop. United and Archer have selected this as the takeoff and landing site for this airport to the city center route because of its convenience, access, and service.

    From there, passengers will be able to travel to and from ORD via Archer’s Midnight aircraft in approximately 10 minutes. Michael Leskinen, President of United Airlines Ventures, commented,

    “Both Archer and United are committed to decarbonizing air travel and leveraging innovative technologies to deliver on the promise of the electrification of the aviation industry. Once operational, we’re excited to offer our customers a more sustainable, convenient and cost-effective mode of transportation during their commutes to the airport.”

    Archer Aviation first acquired United as a customer in January 2021, with the airline placing an order worth $1 billion. In November last year, Archer introduced its production eVTOL aircraft, titled Midnight, at an open house event in Palo Alto, CA.

    The aircraft will carry four passengers and one pilot and is an advancement of the original demonstrator plane, the Maker. It will also use innovative technology to provide a low-noise, sustainable, and safe alternative to helicopters.

    Last year, United also announced a second significant investment in eVTOL technology by investing $15 million in Eve Air Mobility, alongside a conditional purchase agreement for the vehicle. The purchase agreement covered a total of 200 of the four-seat electric aircraft and included options for 200 more. The first deliveries of the Eve aircraft are expected in 2026.

    Archer Aviation had earlier said that by 2025, it plans to produce about 250 battery-electric air taxis. The company is quite confident about its schedule, with Archer CEO Adam Goldstein previously commenting,

    “In our first year, we will build 250 aircraft, our second year will build 500 aircraft, our third year will build 650 aircraft, and then we scale it up to around 2,000 aircraft per year.”

    Archer and United have already chosen Newark Liberty International Airport to Downtown Manhattan Heliport as the first route to utilize the Midnight aircraft, and with Chicago joining the list, other cities could follow suit.
    BYGAURAV JOSHI
    PUBLISHED 1 DAY AGO (Simply Flying).
     
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  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I see Lilium is struggling. They are looking for funding and more investors.

    I'm no aero engineer but, when I look at the Lilium aircraft, it looks like efficiency will decrease with scale. Lilium claims otherwise and publicly criticized archer for a design that "doesn't scale well".

    When I look at the archer design, it looks like it would scale very well to me.

    When a CEO is smearing a competitor like that, it's a huge red flag. It reeks of Trevor Milton. I think their criticism of Archer's design a lie and exactly opposite to reality but, even if it is true, it should not have been said.

    If I were betting on who would be carrying passengers first, my money would be on Archer over Lilium and I would not have to pause to consider the decision.
     
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