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ADA Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by anotherdevilsadvocate, Jun 19, 2016.

  1. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Individual airline stocks all at resistance. Many with falling 200 sma. I'm looking for a small pullback to set a higher base before going through. I'll just show a couple charts

    ALGT:
    [​IMG]

    AAL:
    [​IMG]
     
    #21 anotherdevilsadvocate, Oct 8, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2016
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Do you have any short plays on them? If not, which airline do you think would make the strongest short? Or are you expecting them to breakout?
     
  3. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    No shorts on them. I think they can start turning around, but I'll only be convinced if I see a higher low next. I would want to short ALGT because it has one of the higher price ratios and it looks like a confluence of resistances is acting against it (200-day, declining tops). But then it looks like they've already had their decline, so it may not have any short juice left.

    On the long side, I like ICLR
    [​IMG]
     
  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    ERs on Monday 10/17

    BAC daily:
    [​IMG]
    BAC looks good. The big volume days this quarter were above the 20 sma. Price went below the 20 sma but 1) got supported at 50 sma, and 2) got supported at $15 which looked to have been a price of support/resistance/support. It looks like smooth sailing to $18.

    LII monthly:
    [​IMG]
    No play on this one. This run has been tremendous, but it looks like steam will be lost--the last 6 months have seen big red candles with lots of volume (see a daily chart). But I have to say back in June I was watching when the 10/20/50 smas were coiling together and thought the run might be done back then. Just been a tough run to get in on, and on the other hand would have been hurt trying to short it.

    SCHW weekly:
    [​IMG]
    Longs probably won't get hurt on this. Looks like a bottom was set at $24. But could go down, especially with general market weakness looming next week. But keep faith as long as it stays above $29.

    NFLX daily:
    [​IMG]
    Longs beware. Has had trouble finding buyers all quarter when price has been above the 20 sma. Now recently the 20 sma has even been moving up. Do you think the institutions will be wowed by Monday's ER and rush to buy Monday after hours/Tuesday? That would not be their style; with ER volume typically 2-3x normal, I believe they will want to buy below the 20 sma ~99.70.
     
  5. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Was wrong about NFLX. I made a mistake trying to short something that was still above its 20-week sma; I tried to get in early on a breakdown and lost; not a smart thing to do during earnings. Oh well live to trade another day.

    I like AMD
    [​IMG]
    That big red volume in early September when AMD did another offering, it set a swing low. Then in the last few days there was another big red volume day, but support held at the trend line connecting rising lows, and we got a hammer.
     
  6. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    http://venturebeat.com/2016/10/21/2017-will-be-the-year-of-interactive-email/
    So, the companies (eg Facebook) that gained significant market share in the early stages of the App Era will thrive because users will eventually stop downloading new apps; the first mover advantage. This is what happens in oversaturated markets (eg music, movies): people get so inundated that they tune out all the noise of new music, and just listen to the music that they listened to 20 years ago.

    Then, the first movers start growing their apps:

    https://www.wired.com/2016/04/facebook-believes-messenger-will-anchor-post-app-internet/
    Alright the above is what I picked out from the article, which gives me faith in FB continuing to rise in price. The article's main point was actually about email...so I'll put it in here because it is somewhat promising. Particularly for companies that have built up email lists.

     
  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-tv-is-hurting-the-lucrative-reruns-business

    This article talks about the "New Golden Age of TV", and I believe it. Storytelling is more detailed in TV than in movies; movies are so cookie cutter nowadays because of their limited length (and also because it got so expensive to make movies that no one wants to take a risk on "something different", so they just make movies that pass by the test audience but will not have anything to hook people to it for more than 2 weeks). When you only have a 2-hour time limit, and you have to go through the formula (action sequence to start, introduce the love interest, go through the villain's story, conflict, happy ending) then people will only buy that so often.

    On the exterior, this article is about how the reruns business is dwindling. I personally read into it, how Netflix is disrupting one more industry (which is a $22B industry). And that is why Netflix keeps maintaining such high price ratios: institutional investors believe in the leadership/decisions of Reed Hastings, who is creating new businesses that we never knew we wanted. Who knew we wanted all the episodes in a season available at once from the start? That is why no one will acquire NFLX, because they would have to have some amazing ideas to keep creating businesses. If someone acquired Netflix and just kept the status quo, their value would drastically dwindle. The share price is currently over 21.5 times book value.

    NFLX weekly with 20-week ma:
    [​IMG]
    Shorts need to be careful when that ma is going up. I was paying too much attention to the daily chart...
     
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    NGL an oil stock looking good today. 8% yield.
    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  9. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    AXDX with bearish engulfing at resistance level
    [​IMG]

    IPHI looks ready to go from a W-formation
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    SSNC looks about to fall out of a wedge
    [​IMG]
     
  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    WBMD looks like it could fall hard and fast
    [​IMG]


    A couple weeks ago they announced they would buy back 2M shares (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/webmd-health-wbmd-buy-back-145402869.html); that may explain that recent chunk of volume. In spite of that action, price has not moved positively at all.

    Can see that it's in a volatility squeeze right now, and below the 200 sma.
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Got some ER predictions for this week. Got a new strategy I am starting now. I've previously looked at previous earnings and expected earnings to see if there was growth, but now I'm ignoring that.

    UNH - up
    [​IMG]
    50-day rising, and positive macd/rsi. It looks to me like institutions have bought and held this: big green volume (3+ occasions) starting 11/9 pushed 10-day above 20-day, and the only big red volume (around dividend payment, coincidentally) did not push price down any more.

    UAL - up
    [​IMG]
    The signals can look mixed, but overall this just looks strong.
    There is resistance around $76.
    Look at the monthly chart, and the MACD may be at the beginning of a big run:
    [​IMG]

    GE - down
    [​IMG]
    This seems to lack direction either way, but the deciding DOWN factor for this ER is that 10-day below 20-day currently, and no volume looks to be coming in to push it up.

    CHKP - up
    This one just looks so damn strong. "solutions for data centers and enterprises include data center and enterprise network security appliances; integrated appliance solutions that provide integrated software and hardware bundles, and direct support; and vSEC public and private cloud solutions for integrated security.".
    Whereas many cybersecurity stocks have problems currently being profitable (e.g. PANW, FEYE), this is one of the few that is actually profitable (see CYBR, QLYS with forward P/E~35). CHKP has a forward P/E~18.5.
    I'll just post the current finviz chart
    [​IMG]
    which shows it recently pushing through resistance, after a cup-and-handle looking pattern (which stayed above the 50-day) from the last ER.
     
    #32 anotherdevilsadvocate, Jan 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2017
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I just remembered I had something to share about NFLX. Ultimately, looking at daily, weekly, and monthly charts the RSI has not hit 70. Not since its big down day on 11/10, even though price recovered and made all time highs. There was no volume that came in when the 10-day crossed over the 20-day either. Be careful of just watching prices.
    This one is going down, but wait for the day after ER. There can be tom-fuckery that happens in after-hours.
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    GILD looks to have a good entry here, as it looks to start retaking moving averages. 20 sma is just below price at 69.15, and 10 sma has crossed above it. The 20 sma is for action and the 10 sma is for trend. The day of 2/15 was above average volume and price moved more than the ATR (average true range); price never went below 68.40 since then. Just risking 2% basically. Technically, in the weekly chart I like seeing the RSI>40 as it comes off bottom Bollinger band.
    [​IMG]
    Expect it to retake the 10-week sma, and once that happens then it can start trying to retake other moving averages. If it doesn't happen, then get out ~68.40.

    Many people are pounding the table that GILD must do an acquisition to get the stock price going. I disagree with this train of thought. Being an acquirer may be a dead business model in the pharma industry. Look at VRX and PRGO, etc.

    And the President is tweeting promises that he will reduce drug costs. I know those promises don’t guarantee much, but I take it that “reducing drug costs” will be politicians’ rallying cry until it actually gets done. Which should be decades amirite. All this is to say, buying out a company for their unreleased drug seems risky business to me. Those clinical stage biotechs get valued exorbitantly on theoretical drug prices that I doubt they can ever see. Buying high and selling low is no way to do good business (again, look at VRX).

    Heck, even GILD almost got burned when they acquired their wildly successful Hep C drug from Pharmasset. Merck came around and almost snuck a patent infringement on GILD. And this was a primary drug that got this whole drug pricing fiasco started.

    Forget about waiting and hoping for an acquisition. GILD itself has quite an impressive pipeline already, many drugs in Phase II or even III. They have been working on developing their own drugs, which is risky but there can be no real gains without real risk.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Well I got stopped out of GILD at 67.66, the low of that 2/15 candle.
    "Technically, in the weekly chart I like seeing the RSI>40 as it comes off bottom Bollinger band."
    As of Friday the weekly RSI is 38.4. Why'd it change after I bought it! haha oh well.

    Going back to the fear of robots taking everyone's jobs (post #20). I'll reiterate that to me this seems to be a lot of fear about nothing. Ultimately robots will take over doing the jobs that we need to be done, but don't want to do -- that's a great thing if you ask me. Of course, some people may have liked doing some of those jobs, but they'll just need to find something else. Nothing is guaranteed in life, humans need to adapt. We find new jobs to do: no one was a "YouTube personality" 20 years ago. Develop people skills (get it?), because the elderly would prefer a human taking care of them rather than a cold hard robot.

    I heard about that robot that makes burgers. Thinking of buying one for myself, and eating burgers all day. Sell some on the side for 50 cents, to take some of the business from Wendy's or whatever chain has burger bots. But oh shit, what if someone else buys their own burger bot?
    Pretty soon, being a business owner will be about being a better manager (since everyone can get the exact same labor) instead of having cheap labor. And we'll get rid of the shitty managers.
     
  17. Multi_Bagga_Man

    Multi_Bagga_Man New Member

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    Should keep this going, you have some decent picks in the daily/weekly challenge threads
     
    Jrich likes this.
  18. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Funny, I was just thinking about this the other day

    If robots take all the jobs, make all the products, and leave all the people unemployed... Then who will buy the products they make?....... I imagine economic nature and the free market would balance things out, just like it does now

    But we will certainly see several industries dissapear.... For one, this "self driving car" is already threatening the American trucker... Cause we know, the "self driving truck" wont be far behind

    As a child, I had many visions of the future... With flying cars, apartments in the sky and robot servants doing all the work people no longer want to do...... Thanks to these visions, I sleep easy knowing there will always be a job waiting for me at Spacely Sprockets:D
     
  19. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    The Jetsons, whoda thunk it. I'm a commercial driver myself, but it's coming. My first mobile phone was a bag phone, had to tote a case the size of a phonebook around, wasn't many years ago either.
     
    fireopal and Jrich like this.
  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Self-driving cars may not totally eliminate truckers. For years planes have been autopiloted, with the human pilots only handling takeoff and landing. Yet we still have human pilots. Its just there the computers were wanted to eliminate much of human error.
    However, the issue with truckers and self-driving cars may have less to do with eliminating human error and more to do with having cars on the road 24/7; it's hard for humans to compete against an employee like that. But they'll have to at least have a few humans monitoring the self-driving cars from a central station.
     
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