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ADA Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by anotherdevilsadvocate, Jun 19, 2016.

  1. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    True... And many driving jobs also entail some kind of actual work when you get where you're goin.... If my truck drove itself, it would still have to take me with it

    Even if it comes to fruition... We're taking many many years and a few generations beyond our life time... Nothing in nature goes from stop to start in an instant.... Nope... And the same law of inertia in nature also applies to the economy

    Maybe in my kids life time, he might see the beginning of the end of the trucking industry..... But I don't want my kid growing up to be a truck driver anyway
     
    fireopal likes this.
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    It's just sad that all these corporations that make so much money care more about how much they're making instead of taking care of their employees and keeping jobs in the hands of the worker (specifically Americans in this case). All because the guy making 50 billion a year wants it to be 53 billion a year (just an example). Very sad, and I wish that the move to automation would slow down dramatically.
     
    fireopal likes this.
  3. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Couple of companies that reported earnings today before market open, touched higher than yesterday but closed red.
    [​IMG]
    Papa John's is not growing revenues much, but manages to beat EPS because they buy back a lot of shares. But the buyback is funded by debt issues. Also having trouble with the 200 ma.

    [​IMG]
    Asset manager that reported a loss. Having trouble with the 50 ma.
     
  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    XLP ETF showing promise.

    Daily chart:
    [​IMG]
    A couple days ago (5/3) was the start of a bounce. RSI has been strong lately, not going below 40. And the 10 ma has stayed above the 50 ma, so never really lost momentum. I'd set a stop at the 5/3 low.

    Weekly chart with cup and handle, decreased volume in handle:
    [​IMG]
     
  5. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    REGN is breaking out. Look at the move it's made this month, not even yesterday's bloodbath touched it.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly RSI finally pushed above 60 for first time in 21 months.
     
  6. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    A couple of stocks near their 50-day MA, so not too extended. Their charts are pretty similar too

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    The big difference is ODFL has half the ATR (average true range) of NTES. So NTES can move more.

    Although NTES is appealing, I feel like ODFL is the safer play. In a weekly chart, NTES is so far extended from the 200 ma. I think it'll get a bit more extended, but then it could stall for no other reason than it needs to rest, whereas ODFL would still have gas in the tank.

    Weekly (price~310, more than double the 200-week ma ~143.75):
    [​IMG]

    ODFL (price~93.50, 200-week ma ~67.75)
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted and Ciao (Sheppy) like this.
  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Head-and-shoulders inside of a head-and-shoulders...doubly bearish?
    [​IMG]

    And ROST looking like a bearish divergence in the weekly chart:
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. Wolfy

    Wolfy Active Member

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    NTES has been consolidating around the 300 area since the sell-off. If it can hold the next sell off, I am incline to have a long position.
    BABA has also hold above the 135 support today and bounced quickly to 138 within the same trading day. These Chinese internet stocks are running like a textbook.
     
  9. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I think I'll update this post as I find time, if I find time.
    The ER plays I'm looking at this week...I'm seeing if I can find something where I don't need to predict a beat or a miss. For one example of why trying to predict a beat can be futile just look at FNSR last week. Their EPS was only in-line, but their revenues missed, AND they guided lower than forecasts; yet still the stock went +8% the next day. It's more than just past earnings, and future earnings that determine these big moves.

    ADBE (6/20) - Not sure. 50-day being supported. Now would this gap down and then They bring it back up while picking up more shares? Maybe. I'm going to take another look at this, but I think I'll skip this one this time.

    FDX (6/20) - Long. The two big red candles this Q were 4/12 and 5/17, with less selling volume on the latter date. This was followed up by big volume on 6/2 that resulted in a big green candle, and price has been above the 10-day ever since. Earnings-wise, they are predicted to be +19.9% revenues this Q, yet next Q only +4.7%. Sounds like the perfect opportunity to increase forward guidance. It doesn't always work this way, they could in fact be running into tougher comparables.

    LZB (6/20) - Short. This Q it got rejected at the node around $28.80, then again at the lower node around $28.
    LZB_170618.png
    I think it'll go lower. Keep in mind that Amazon is building 4 large warehouses so they can ship furniture and appliances, and Wayfair has been trading unconsciously this Q as well, so it seems like they have stiff competition from online retailers.
    Ran into this trendline and gapped down, below the 200-day just last Friday.
    [​IMG]

    ORCL (6/21) - Will try to take another look. Looking at $44 being supported.

    FINL (6/23 bmo) - Thinking Short. Earnings projection -4.2% revenues this Q, and -5.2% revenues next Q. What are they doing to turn those numbers around?
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    The cybersecurity stocks look promising right now. Above the immediate trend--that being the 10-day moving average, the black line in my charts. And not extended from the 50-day ma (green line in my charts)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    RSI stayed above 50 for a couple months. Nice candle on 6/22, the following day opened and closed even above it, with a quick spike back within it that never went more than halfback.
     
  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Carlyle Group (CG) is in financial sector, pays 7.2% dividend (but payout ratio is over 160% so it is questionable), and has a nice base.

    Weekly chart:
    [​IMG]
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Shutterstock may be ripe for short squeeze; 25% of float is short, 16.8 days to cover
    [​IMG]
     
  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Interesting, thanks for bringing that up. Could be some decent support right here as well.

    upload_2017-7-11_19-2-35.png
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    One thing in general that I'm seeing is some strong stocks are barely keeping above the 200-day average price
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    All while the market is at ATH, a bunch of strong stocks are close to bona fide downtrends.

    It seems to me that Chinese stocks are in pullback mode. They've run so hard and so long, that it should be expected, but if they dip without bouncing right back then that would be absolutely shocking.
    [​IMG]

    I've been looking a lot at the NTES chart, and it looks to me to be in a real similar spot right now as AAPL was 5 years ago. The 200-period moving average can seem to be really useless when stocks are in strong uptrends, since that average is so far away from being any use as a support. But it can be a warning of a blowoff top when price gets over 2 times the 200 ma.
    Here's the weekly charts:
    AAPL in 2012, was bouncing off 50 ma until 9/2012 then it fell through down to the previously-distant 200 ma:
    [​IMG]

    NTES in 2017:
    [​IMG]
     
    B Russ likes this.
  15. Wolfy

    Wolfy Active Member

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    Exception is BIDU. It is on the 3rd breakout this time. Let's see if it can hold.
     
  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Yeah there are exceptions. For Chinese stocks, I'm fine with BIDU and BABA. I've been trying to understand JD.

    Also regarding what I said about 2 times the 200-period average, not everyone needs to blowoff immediately. For instance EXEL in the weekly:
    [​IMG]
    For 13 months it's been often in excess of 3 times the 200 ma.
     
  17. B Russ

    B Russ Active Member

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    Hmm. I have never paid attention to the 200MA in a strong uptrend meaning potential blowoff. But it makes total sense. I like it and will have to throw it in my toolbox. Thanks!
     
  18. Wolfy

    Wolfy Active Member

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    I think some hedge funds are shorting JD, so it is difficult to determine what's going to happen next.

    You can also look at COSTCO. It looks like it is going to give 200 MA a test on the chart.
     
  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Nice thread!!

    /anotherdevilsadvocate
     
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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I was wrong here, it didn't fall out. Looks like it was just taking time to consolidate. Makes software for financial purposes. Looks like Q4 could be a barn-burner.
    I guess some deals in Q3 got pushed back to Q4, now more than 30 deals are supposed to close then, "most of which are perpetual or term license deals".

    Weekly chart, with 20-week moving average:
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.

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