Answer: Time frame. Generally I use a 1-box reversal on daily charts and 3-box on weeklies and monthlies. Here is a monthly vertical bar chart of AKS and following is a $0.50 x 3-box-reversal point & figure chart. I am guessing that the Last Point of Support (LPS) will print at 5.50 on these longer time frames because I know from my shorter term P&F (look back a few posts) that there should be a reversal there. Also, typically the Last Point of Support (LPS) will be near the Preliminary Support (PS) price. Lookey there, the PS is 5.51 . This is a beautiful chart. I may have to mortgage the farm on this one. As you can see in this longer time frame the trading range began way back in April of 2013 at the Selling Climax (SC). The Automatic Rally ended in August of 2014. The Secondary Test (ST) finished in January 2016 and there was a failed Upthrust (UT) in December 2016. So, this point & figure just removes time. It prints Xs while price is rising and Os when falling. It is a 3-box reversal meaning the only way it can print a new column is if there is a 3-box reversal. Since the box size is 50 cents, there has to be a reversal in price of $1.50 before it will print a new column. Every time is prints a new column, reverses direction, is a measure of the CM building his position. He buys at the lows and sells a little off at the highs to contain price. Slowly he builds and improves his position. You can count the columns (reversals) multiply by the box size and reversal amount and add to your starting price and get a projected price. It works like magic. Why exactly? Don't know, but the father of technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff discovered it way back and used it in the 1910s, 20, and 30s and it still works.
I still see more volume on the highs than on the lows throughout most of the range..... Is that not a red flag? If net buying were happening, wouldn't this be the other way around?
I don't think it is a red flag. On the monthly chart above, you can see that it is staying at the lows longer than at the highs....so the CM is quietly absorbing sellers at the low of the range. As the price approaches the highs, the public gets all excited that they're going to miss out and so the CM sells to them and continues to sell to them until it gets under the PS line again...then he starts slowly buying again....buying from many of the very ones he sold to just a month or so earlier. Steadily and methodically he either scares out the public or wears them out with boredom, all the while improving his position and increasing the size of his position.
Interesting day today I took a position yesterday to play on the ER... The Whisperers were right, beat earnings by $0.04 AND beat revenue by $50M! I had a big grin on my face this morning when it topped out at $7.59 pre market.... But it turned to one of these within an hour of open Luckily the open price was still high enough for me to bump my stop loss up to my entry price... So even though I watched about a 10% gain vanish before my eyes, I didn't lose a dime But what gives??... If the earnings surprise wasn't good enough, surely an extra 50m in cash flow was... So why the big sell off?? According to a few sources, the whole steel sector took a hit because of earnings misses in other steel companies..... I guess that's a reasonable explanation But when I tune out all the noise and focus on the evidence, I notice that $7.50 area is also the top of the 2014 range, with $6.00 being the bottom.... So I think, if $6.00 becomes a support, we're looking at accumulation, because it appears outside force is pushing price down, not up But here's where I get confused If I zoom out farther on a monthly chart and compare AKS to other steel companies..... There's one that looks eerily similar... Can you spot it?? So how does this work??... These companies are similar in operation and both serve the same industries (for the most part)... So IF the big interests are buying up one, they're buying up both??
Just looked, they were scheduled to report today after hours..... $1.18 miss But that doesn't explain why it was down on high volume during trading hours Plus, I looked at a couple other steel companies, they both hit or beat earnings..... So I'm not sure about the big steel sell today??
I am patiently waiting for $5.50 or there-about. Long-term target is still $31 based on $0.50-box by 3-box-reversal P&F, see chart above. Below is update on $0.50-box by 1-box-reversal P&F from previous page. Short-term target is still $5.50.
I vote for lower first, $5,50 or yeah that nice round number of $5.00. I think that selling bar of this past Tuesday was climatic on the top side.
Brilliant question. You are right, it will be phase A in the shorter time frame; SC to AR. On the monthly though, it could be the LPS in phase C.
Yep, nice trend day, (fish on). I think it will continue tomorrow....holding (easy on the drag). 15-Minute sticks:
Took 12.6% profits today on the lack of progress. It could reach a little higher I suppose, $7 or so, but intent of trade was to play the SC to AR; so already overplayed this one. May re-enter at the ST at $5.50 or so..
Good to see ya back! Noticed this on the intra day chart... walkin the line! Made it my daily challenge pick yesterday, might have picked it a day early
